Bealinehx

There are a number of events happening which will just add to the confusion and mixed interpretations of mandates and resolutions etc.
The first quite obviously is the election season with all the nonsense that will inevitably follow. Secondly there is Omicron. Does any organisation public or private have any idea of the ratios of Delta to Omicron variants that currently prevail throughout these islands. Probably not as there are no rapid lateral flow testing available to the public at large. Politicians will cast an eye at the progress in the UK followed by Europe and later the US and note and pontificate that the pandemic is now magically endemic. So the fun begins.

Raffin

One good thing about it being the start of the election season is that candidates are feeling brave and challenging the policies being followed, like no vaxx no travel. But the bad thing will be rallies that will aid the spread of Omicron. Will they be banned? I doubt it.

They don't have the data but I think all the specialists are now sure Omicron is well dominant here, following other countries. Not so much now in Manila (as with London) but in the rest of the country soon the number of confirmed cases you can identify for a certain time will be determined by the maximum capacity of local PCR testing. Always remembering these operations are affected by staff sickness too. Lack of lateral flow tests won't affect the official numbers but will accelerate the spread. In the UK the well subscribed ZOE app's higher numbers from domestic LFTs can be used by decision makers. The ONS in the UK (not the govt) estimate using all data sources the prevalence in England is 1 in 15!

I think here they will stick to their shiny new Alert level system. We will mostly avoid going up the levels to 4 and 5 (where the dreaded face shields are back!) by lack of proper case data and the fact that Omicron is a milder disease not requiring oxygen, ICU etc so much as Delta. The unvaxxed and those with comorbidities will get hospitalized, but there is a young population here so I am guessing we won't have "alarming levels of case growth and use of hospital facilities", as described for level 5. "high and increasing" as for level 4, yes, for some areas. Whether they will eventually talk about Omicron as a "quite good thing in the end" as experts are starting to in other countries (see Dr Js video "Specialists now agree on endemic ending"), that may be too much for them here.

What puzzles me now is whether the administration has any motivations politically about its legacy as it is unclear who they would like to succeed. Will they tend to rush over the next 2-3 months to declare it endemic here or will they keep up the strict regulations in their Alert system? Can anybody win the Presidency promising military style to reduce Covid to flu levels? The generals in charge here would like that. But handing over a growing economy to whoever they eventually latch on to help win the Presidency will probably be the major motivation.

Raffin

Today it looks again like a lower number of cases from the weekend at 22,958, but 4,243 were held over and 6 labs were late, which would have added about another 450 cases. Positivity at 43.5% from a higher 62,531 tests.

Recoveries 36,611

Deaths 82, 32 RDs
56 Jan, 8 Oct, 15 Sep, 3 back to Jan 2021

Active; 270,728

Severe 1,487, up 3. Critical 304, up 1

NCR ICU 53%. National 49%
Unchanged.

The cost of level 3

https://www.rappler.com/nation/dole-...-january-2022/

Raffin

For the NCR "further reductions" as retailers say in the sales. Yesterday 8,376 cases. We can probably now discount the chaotic testing over the recent holidays and although there are many thousands of positive results still held by the DOH there is a downward trend showing, Regions around the NCR also had less cases, some weekend effect maybe, but it looks like they are headed down too.

Elsewhere WV reported about 350 more, SOCCSK 124 more and BARMM 115 more.
NM, MIMAROPA and Bicol all had a few more cases too.

For cities only Paranaque had more, 39, otherwise the other 5 I track all had many less.
Bacolod, Iligan and Zamboanga Cities each had a few more cases.

On the "No vaxx no ride" policy in AL3 areas:

Getting a "health certificate" from the Brgy maybe not easy.
It will push some lazy people to get vaccinated but I don't think it is worth it. Another example of a knee jerk policy from the top here affecting many poor people and heading nowhere.

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...H?ocid=BingHPC

DOH preparing hospitals in some areas for Omicron:


OK, but Omicron can infect the vaccinated too. All areas need to prepare for patients with comorbidities and young kids who can have upper airway conditions. And why use 40% as the cut off?


Mindanao way behind!

Raffin

Tests increased by over 10k for todays total of 31,173 and no cases were held over. In fact 864 were added from the large backlog. Positivity at 43.3%. Late labs would have added nearly 400 more cases.

Recoveries 26,298

Deaths 110 , 59 RDs.
67 Jan, 3 Dec, 8 Nov, 13 Oct
19 back to April


Latest DOH deaths chart, by date of death. Small rise recently and notice the additional lagged deaths showing August-October, indicated by being above the trendline of daily announced.

Active 275,364

Severe 1,468. up 1 Critical 305 up 1
No large movements showing as of yet.

NCR ICU 51%, down 2%. National 50%, up 1%
NCR Ward Beds 60%, down 3%

Bealinehx

Tune into Dr John's. latest video "Freedom of Information" Very, very interesting. Draw your own conclusions.

Raffin

The NCR added over 1k new cases yesterday. But all except one region, SOCCSKSARGEN, reported more cases.
The NCR at at a lower 30.3% of all cases Its 6 largest cities with a mixed picture, up and down. Taguig stood out with well over 700 more cases over the previous day.

The OCTA group confirm a downward case trend.

But the DOH are not:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...onavirus-cases

Showing heavy institutional reticence, she probably doesn't want to get ahead of the Secretary. Unless they know something from the very large number of previously confirmed cases they have not yet announced?

Around the NCR Region 4A reported about 1,800 more. Cavite and Laguna had large increases.

In the Visayas both WV and CV over 600 more. EV's more than doubled to 664.
Bacolod City added over 100 to 230 cases.
Bicol added more than 200 to 781.

In Mindanao the NM, Zamboanga and Davao regions each about doubled their new cases.
CDO and Davao Cities had large increases, the latter one of over 500 to 793 cases.

Raffin

I'm not surprised. Doctors will put all conditions they can see down on the death certificate. And they're especially likely to put as many as possible if they've been involved in the treatment of that patient. They're not asked for the main cause of death. I think if that were done there would be a lot more than 17k where Covid was the only or main cause.

Also not surprised the authorities kept quiet. They don't want to minimise covid.

Raffin

Yesterday over 1.5k more cases and 32,744 announced. But 403 were held back and about 300 were missed due to 3 labs reporting late. Positivity 44.0% from a higher 75.3k tests.

Recoveries 16,385

Deaths 156, 108 RDs
66 Jan, 9 Dec, 7 Nov, 19 Oct
55 back to Dec 2020.

Severe 1,487, down 1. Critical 304, down 1
Very small changes lately. Are these data being reported properly?

Reporting of case numbers:


OCTA presenting DOH data

The DOH still insisting that NCR cases have only "plateaued". Using the argument that there is a lot of antigen testing going on. But there isn't yet, as this article says:

https://mb.com.ph/2022/01/10/free-an...id-cases-eyed/

Case number reporting:

A Rappler headline today.


But the DOH announced only 278 on Jan 19, then 793 the next day, 126 less than 1,197. Then another 1,020 to come. Going back to Jan 14 and its previous record of 712, that day the DOH announced only 346.

The contact tracing getting even more useless:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...story/?just_in

Vaccination hesitancy:


SWS surveys

Improving but contrast with the UK survey from the ONS.









NCR ICU 49%, down 2%. National 51%, up 1%
NCR Ward beds 58.6%, down 1.4%

Raffin

The NCR was down yesterday by more than 2k cases and having a much lower 22.2% of total cases. All of its 6 largest cities were down.
Around the NCR the CL region gained about 1.5k while 4A had about 300 less. Although Cavite added about 150.
Elsewhere in the North the CAR added over 499, Ilocos 500 cases.
Baguio City had over 250 more cases.

In the Visayas WV and EV each added over 200 cases.
Cebu City had over 140 more.

In Mindanao the BARMM, Caraga, Zamboanga and NM regions all added cases. The Davao region stood out with over 600 more cases to a total of 1726.
Davao City's rose 583 to 1,376.

Changes to Alert Levels:

https://www.rappler.com/nation/kalin...-january-2022/

Long Covid

Read down this news report and you can read the first information I've seen here on that issue

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...fficial/story/

A study reported on by the BBC last year suggests a higher incidence:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57584295

Raffin

Today no labs were late and just 138 cases were added from backlog to make 30,552 cases from a lower 68k tests. Positivity up 1.1% to 45.1%.

Recoveries much higher at 41.5k

Deaths 91, 57 RDs

Active cases fell by 11k to 280,619

Severe 1,491, up 4. Critical 305, up 1

NCR ICU 50%, up 1%. National 52%, up 1%


Recent US data showing benefit vs hospitalization 50-64yrs of vaccination vs no vaccination. Although a small effect of booster vs 2 doses. From the latest Dr John video.


It seems that in the UK regional Omicron peaks were much less than London's. Will that sort of thing also happen here? But, the low vaccination rates outside the NCR plus....

Raffin

Yesterday's location data and weekly update

About 600 less NCR cases yesterday, 20.3% of the national total. Less in 5 of the 6 most populated cities. But in Paranaque about 40 more for the second day running.
Cases down by about 1,500 in CL and by less than 400 in region 4A. But Cavite's increased by nearly 400.

Cases up by a few hundred in both the WV and CV regions.
Cebu City's went up by about 150 to 393.

In Mindanao: the Zamboanga, NM and SOCCSK regions all had about 150 more.

Iligan City nearly doubled its daily cases to 104.
GenSan had 27 more to 148.

Weekly Update:

The Philippines: -5.3%

Falling regions:
Percentage falls and numbers of cases.

NCR -41.3% 71,405
CL -5.1 22,772
4A -2.6 50,332

NCR cities: 5 of the 6 largest 34-53% falls. Taguig by only 0.3%.

Provinces around the NCR:

Large % falls in Bulacan and Rizal, by 38 and 28%.
Laguna's rose by 16%, Cavite's by 1%.

Rising regions:
Multiple and numbers of cases.

1 Davao 7.5 6,608
2 Caraga 3.1 2,428
3 Zam 3.0 3.076
4 CV 2.8 10,354
5 NM 2.7 4,462
6 CAR 2.4 2,428
7 SOCCSK 2.1 1,808
8 EV 1.9 3,972
9 Ilocos 1.9 8,619
10 BARMM 1.7 1,739
11 MIM 1.6 1,790
12 WV 1.6 1,835
13 Bic 1.5 4,677
14 Cag 1.5 6,848

Other cities:
Multiples

Baguio 2.0

Bacolod 2.4
Cebu 3.1

CDO 3.0
Davao 3.7
GenSan 2.0
Iligan 3.4
Zam 2.5

Raffin

NCR totals continue to fall by around 1k a day. Yesterday at 5,433. The six largest cities all with less cases. There are under-reporting and backlogs as factors to consider, but the downward trend is clear. CL fell a little but 4A fell by 2k to 4,317. The latter region also on a downward trend for the last few days at least.
In the North the CAR had 800 more. Baguio City with nearly 500 more cases.

Further South Bicol reported about 100 more. WV nearly 500 more, CV over 100 more cases.
Bacolod City had over 100 more cases.

In Mindanao Davao again reported exponential type rises of more than 2k over the day before.
Caraga's numbers rose by about 600. SOCCKSARGEN's increased by over 200. NM was up by about 100.
CDO City had over 100 more but Davao City stood well out with over 900 more cases yesterday than the day before.

Booster:



Very good protection against hospitalization immediately and a loss of about 10% after 3 months. But is it a good thing if you get Omicron quickly and get back to 92%, as Dr John put out as something to consider?

The Philippines vs Indonesia:


At the very start of an Omicron surge.



Well into Omicron surge, perhaps even starting to fall in at least the populated parts of Luzon.


Strange as last year Indonesia caught Delta a few weeks earlier than the Philippines. Indonesia at 45% fully vaccinated against 53% Philippines.


Maybe something to do with the increase in positive OFWs lately? Yesterday 143 cases. Last week 164, but in mid Jan 899 for a week.

Raffin

Today 24,938 new cases, 620 were from backlog and 5 labs were late to submit and their cases not included. Positivity 40.6% from 59.9k tests.

Recoveries 35,461

Deaths 47, 11 RDs

Active 262,997

Severe 1,499, up 3. Critical 309, up 1

NCR ICU 47%, down 1% National 51%, down 2%
NCR ward beds 52.1%, down 0.8%

Dr John at his best here talking with an Australian immunologist. Long, but you only need only to watch the first 20 mins or so to learn a lot about covid and the immune system and how it must be kept in balance.

Bealinehx

Today's Worldometer is showing 24,938 new cases for the Philippines. Published at 16.00 today. Yesterday they reported 29,730.
I wonder who is responsible for passing these statistics on?