https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/13/...ely-to-prosper

They cocked up their petition with the year error, but they might have a point if, as seems likely, the Omicron variant takes off here next Feb/Mar.

Since April this year the incidence of reported deaths due to C-19 has on the whole been at a fairly consistent level. This fact really highlights the inaccurate reporting of both deaths and new daily C-19 cases. I shudder to think what will happen when Omicron is let loose here. There may well be huge under reporting due to the so far reported minor symptoms that Omicron presents. Make sure to get your boosters!!!!

Today a lower 235 new cases with 18 of those not recent. Late labs numbered 8, but the DOH estimate only 4 cases were missed. A record low 0.9% positivity was recorded from 24.1k tests. A similar number of tests in preparation.

Recoveries 780

Deaths 10
Obviously continued data issues!

Active 10,526

Severe 1,868, down 80. Critical 393, down 6



Omicron in SA infecting all categories of vaccine status.

Just out: An eye catching article in the FT putting the daily UK Omicron infections way above the 50k or so daily presently confirmed. Doubling about every 2.5 days. Even measuring it there will become difficult due to the limit of test capacity, about 800k a day. The Philippines can do at most about a tenth of that. We will have some useful defences when it hits us....young population, good adherence to protocols, but the sheer numbers who will need treatment will stretch our rickety healthcare. What will they do about the majority with minor or no symptoms as they try to bring the economy back?

https://www.ft.com/content/d69a0a68-...c-1bbceec513b6

With Omicron spreading at the predicted exponential rate and coupled with the milder symptoms, I foresee a world in which the majority of the population will have contracted this latest strain.
If I remember correctly, Dr John highlighted the fact that the virus need living hosts, and to kill off the host population is not in its best interests. So perhaps we will now live in an environment in which Covid in all its future variants will be regarded in the same way as t flu.

He was fact checked later as the nearly all virus transmission is well before serious illness and death. Then another person countered by arguing that with mild disease people go around more and therefore spread more.

Omicron has landed! Two cases, traveller's from Japan and Nigeria via Oman. Both in quarantine. Watch this space we could be in for an interesting Festive Season.

A weird red list from the DOH. Important countries like Andorra, San Marino. Only one African country. UK? There's so much Omicron there they've scrapped their red list.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/15/...rd-off-omicron

Yes very strange, belies all logic. I can't help thinking that the DOH is so pleased with itself on "managing" a truly magnificent achievement in reducing the number of new daily cases.
How will they meet the challenge posed by Omicron? From the two already detected Omicron cases how many other passengers have been affected? I'm sure that they all have been tested.
How long does Omicron take to be detected after first exposure? Are we about to witness the spread of Omicron at warp speed (Sorry Captain Kirk)
On a positive note was good to read that millions of vaccines arrived at NAIA yesterday. I just hope that there are enough syringes to go round!
Can't help being a mite cynical.

Just two more new cases today at 237. But 3 labs were late to submit and 67 cases were held over. Positivity 1.0% from 30.4k tests. Tests coming along 29.8k.

Recoveries 565

Deaths 100, 96 RDs.
Which means nearly all from some time back.

Active 10,193

Severe 1.867, down 81. Critical 391, down 8

NCR ICU 24%, up !%. National 22%, down 2%

Now the IATF have reinstated a Green List of 41 countries, with protocols including 10-14 days total quarantine. Many African countries. Also China, which yesterday reported just 67 cases.
Took them a week here to confirm the two Omicrons!

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/15/...avel-protocols

"Took them a week here to confirm the two Omicrons!"
I wonder how many cases are milling around?

Some more must have got in and so many here are unvaccinated so it must be at what the DOH calls local transmission, early stages of, in a few places.

No good waiting for any official confirmation, variant testing very inadequate Better to look for areas with very high case rate growth, indicating Omicron. One year ago we saw a high case growth in Pasay City. The OCTA group said it was most likely due to the Delta variant, which was more contagious than the Alpha. But the DOH never really admitted it was Delta driven. Except that now the majority of samples nationwide show Delta. The different symptoms of Omicron could also tell them but their reporting systems are nowhere near the level to pick that up:


Pasay City new cases.

As you said B keep quiet about it until the Xmas hols are over then start worrying about it!

It will be interesting to see how the IATF reacts. A lot of people might have mild illness. If Pfizer only gives you about one third protection against Omicron infection what does Sinovac give? Those people may be off work for a few days and worse may pass it on to the unvaccinated, immunocompromised etc. The number of cases around will be even greater than the official tally than they are now, due to the mild symptoms.
There are now about 5k people with moderate covid and up in the country. It's come down by a good number lately but the large number of Omicron cases could lead to that number going back up quickly.

Last....don't throw away your face shield!

I think I mentioned earlier that sinovac being a whole virus may perform better than the tailored vaccines So the countries that have largely be vaccinated with the likes of sinovac may fare slightly better than the rich countries that largely used the fancy expensive vaccines.

Yes, I seem to recall Dr John speculating that may be the case, but:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/15/w...ong-study.html

Today 289 cases announced, but 45 held over and about 3 cases missed from 3 late labs. Positivity 0.9% from 37.1k tests. Tests on the way 36.6k.

Recoveries 380

Deaths 47, 40 were RDs.
5 from Dec
4 Nov
25 Oct
10 Sep
3 from Jan - Apr

Active 10,095

Severe 1,845, down 22 Critical 389, down 2

NCR ICU 23%, down 1%. National 22%, unchanged