Bealinehx

Just a final parting shot regarding vaccinations. Published yesterday on the BBC News site "Germany bars unvaccinated from much of public life". This follows Austria and other countries within Europe. Given the past pattern of events here, I foresee a similar move once vaccinations have reached the so called heard immunity level. It may be a mandate to lowering restrictions to Level 1.

Raffin

Yesterday 544 more cases announced and 48 were held over. About 6 were likely missed due to 5 labs late to report.
Positives 1.8% from 32.9k tests. About the same number of tests in process.

Recoveries 0.7k

Deaths 235, 218 RDs
Continuing high numbers not given much attention. Consistently mostly of people previously recorded as recovered!

Active 14,977

Severe 2,433, down 30. Critical 889, down 178
A large downward count of critical patients for one day.
Can we trust these numbers? These are in Primary hospitals only. Sadly, probably not much!

NCR ICU 28%, up 1%. National 27%m unchanged

Regional data:

NCR 101
Zam 78
4A 49
WV 47
Cag 43
CL 41

Generally equally split between those that had a few more cases and those with a few less. Except for Zamboanga which reported 40 more over the report of the day before.

The NCR at 18.6% of all cases.
The top 3 regions with 41.9%, down.
The top 6 had 66.0%, up.


Dr John reviews a SA paper reporting substantial Omicron immune escape after previous infection.

I haven't yet viewed this latest video and maybe Dr John says something about it. For the Philippines immune escape after vaccination would be the greater danger, given its lower infection rate, about half of SA's.

Raffin

Twenty seven less cases yesterday but 117 were held over. One lab was too late to submit. Positivity 1.8% from 35.2k tests. About the same number in preparation.

Recoveries 1.1k

Deaths 243, with 228 RDs!

Active 14,338

Severe 2,425, down 8. Critical 815, down 74 (A good movement...or not?)

NCR ICU 24%, down 4%. National 25%, down 2%

Regional data:

NCR 121
4A 66
CL 44
WV 44
CV 36
Zam 29

Small changes for the most part.
Nine regions up, 7 down.

The NCR added 20 to have 23.4% of all cases.
The top 3 regions with 44.7%, up.

CV had 18 more than the day before.
The top 6 regions with 65.8% of total cases, down.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/cebu-...ly-vaccinated/

A sign of what may come for other cities?

Weekly update coming later today.

Raffin

Weekly update:

For the Philippines as a whole the weekly change in new cases over the previous week's change was a fall of 53%. A faster rate of fall as for the previous week it was 29%.

For the regions all but 2 for which I have data had falls in weekly new cases.
The top 6 rates of fall were in:

4A 88%
CL 84
EV 76
IL 75
SOCCSK 71
BARMM 64

The increase in Davao was more than x2 and for WV 31%.

I have insufficient past data for the Bicol and CV regions, which were subject to downward revisions.

For NCR cities all except one for which I have data show a faster rate of fall in new cases.
Top cities, over 75% fall were:

Caloocan, Las Pinas, Mandaluyong,Marikina, Pateros and Taguig.

Also Manila (-39%), QC (-31%).

Malabon had a150% increase, but on small numbers.

Makati and Pasig had large downward revisions and their totals fell.

For the provinces around the NCR:

All except Quezon (-20%) showed large % decreases week on week.

For cities and areas:

Apayao province is the only area at AL3, 7 more cases over the previous week, but I have no data for the week previous to that. But there must be a good improvement.
The rest of the country is at AL2 until mid Dec at least.

Cities:

Bacolod +5%
Baguio +12
CDO -46
Cebu -99
Cotabato -79
Davao -50
GenSan -65
IloIlo +23
Zam -47

For Iligan and Tacloban cities, downward revisions leading to less new cases.

Previously listed areas for which I do have the past data:

Mountain province -85
IloIlo +23
Siquijor +99

Going the right way in most places except in the Davao region and to a lesser extent in one or two areas in the north and the Visayas.
It will be interesting to see if one or two of the Davao provinces have their alert levels increased. Previously we have seen some reluctance in the administration to act in that part of the country with strong ties to the leadership.

Raffin

Yesterday 86 more cases were announced with 44 held over. Four labs were late. Nothing from the DOH on the effect of that. Positives 1.8% of 36k tests. A lower 32.3k in preparation.

Recoveries 1.1k

Deaths 156 with 115 RDs.

The DOH says that only 12 are recent from December.
November had 56 and the majority, 88, were from before that.

Active 13,853

Severe 2,410, down 15. Critical 738, down 77
A 31% fall in Critical numbers so far this month.

NCR ICU 28%, up 4%. National 26%, up 1%

Reginal data:

NCR 121
WV 54
Cag 53
4A 47
Caraga 45
CV 44

Nine regions up, but only 2 substantially.

The NCR with the same total as yesterday and 20.1% of all cases.
Cagayan reported 29 more.
The top 3 regions with 37.8% of all cases, down.

Caraga had 29 more.
The top 6 with 60.4% of all cases, also down.


Dr J's recent video "Sick Children in SA" also contains an interesting look at the possible effect of HIV on the Omicron data plus a good world review.

Raffin

Sixty less new cases announced yesterday at 543. Five labs late (likely adding 2 cases only ) and 12 cases held over. Positivity 1,7% from 32.6k tests. Coming along a low 22.3k.

Recoveries: 0.8k

Deaths 113, 102 RDs
The DOH say due to data delays only 14 from Dec and 24 from Nov.
The rest, 75, from before that,

Active 13,548

Severe 2,366, down 44. Critical 676, down 62

NCR ICU 29%, up 1%. National 26%, unchanged.

Regional data:

NCR 102
4A 76
Cag 69
Zam 42
CV 41
CL 39

Twelve regions down in cases, 5 up.

NCR down 19 with 18.8% of all cases.
But 4A added 29.
The top 3 regions with 45.5% of all cases, up.

In places 4-6 Zamboanga added 20 cases,
The top 6 regions with 68.0% of all cases, also up.

Vaccination drive:

Impressive total numbers but problems in some regions:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/06/...ination-target

Those of you reading my posts some months ago will remember the good Fr Austriaco. Made some strange claims then. Claims to have a US post but is always here. Said he is working on a new vaccine.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/07/...mission-expert

A molecular biologist is not usually an "expert" on epidemiology.

A crazy idea on vaccinating everybody around airports! The real experts say Omicron will soon dominate worldwide. Dr John Campbell recently said "in weeks rather than months".
Fr Austriaco wrong about the rate of spread in SA. As fast as Delta, as this graph shows:



SA new cases.

A joke from the President.....but it shows he liked to hear that all would be fine. Will it?
Also showing how people can get to be considered for high government positions!

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...-duque/story/?



As of Dec 5

The NCR might be well protected, except:

1. Population figures are from the latest Census, carried out during a period when many people left the NCR. They've probably now returned.
2. We don't yet know about vaccine effectiveness against Omicron.

But other areas of the country are at present vulnerable and the vaccine drive will be interrupted by the Xmas and New Year holidays.

Reasons to be cheerful....one, two, three.. from Dr John's latest video on Omicron:

Gazza-d

I do wonder about the excuse about a lack of vaccinators. When we had our shots in the UK it was arrive at you assigned time slot, walk in site down, needle in arm and go and sit in your car for 15 minutes before driving home. Yesterday we bad our boosters in a mall in Balanga. Admittedly we didn't have an appointment but there was no queue but it was go to table 1 and collect forms, go sit down and fill in. Go to table 2 and sort out bar code etc, go to table 3 and process paperwork. Go to table 4 and receive vaccine. Go to table 5 and have blood pressure taken and blood oxygen. Sit and wait for vaccine card. That's why they missed their target.

Bealinehx

Raffin,
You must be a fan of the late Ian Dury!!!

Bealinehx

Gazza-d,
Why are you so surprised ? The Philippines thrives on excess bureaucracy, it keeps the unemployment rates down.

Raffin

Just that song. Its actually Reasons to be cheerful. Part 3. Alpha, Delta, Omiron..

Raffin

Yes, a bit too much but I think the locals are well used to it .Lack of vaccinators plausible when they were given so little notice for the 3 day event. The President's idea, so had to go ahead quickly.

Gazza-d

A bit long but a very interesting discussion.

Philosophical 11

Cannot think why the third letter of the Greek alphabet was missed (Xi) and the new variant was named after the fourth letter.....!!

Raffin

I waited for Trump to call it Variant Xi, but maybe he admires him too much.

Gazza-d

Gamma it the third letter of the greek alphabet, although nu and Xi which come before Omicron the 15th letter have been missed out.