NCR llockdown

Old Sep 24th 2020, 2:11 am
  #406  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Bealinehx View Post
Are you surprised? There seems to be a policy of repressing accurate information as may be construed as criticism.
A bit as he had been calling them out for months over their data. .He could simply be sick but looks very likely that his latest big criticism, about using an out of date R number was finally too much for them. He wrote (paraphrased) that it is no wonder bad decisions are being made at the top from the data. Annoying both the DOH and top government leaders.
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Old Sep 24th 2020, 11:17 pm
  #407  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 2,180 new cases announced with 37% or 802 from Manila. Of those there was a backlog August to March of 185 (23%).
Nine labs not reporting. On the face of it another welcome total below the earlier levels of 3,000 plus. Except that these results are probably still being affected by low testing last weekend. Levels then were only around 24k a day but have recovered since to reach 38k on Tuesday.

Deaths were at 36 nationally, NCR 15. Of those NCR deaths 10 went back from August.
Nationally 18 recoveries were reclassified with 17 of them now deaths!

The DOH seem to want to tout the deaths record here. The only curves they show yesterday! They look good but that is aided by the many backlogged deaths. New ones discovered every day lately. But we need to bear in mind there is a worryingly large number of patients, yesterday 1,731, on the critical list here:


Some UK analysis here about the need to bear in mind under-reporting:



The true UK peak estimated by the RITM to be many times higher due to low levels of testing. Here testing levels were low until a ramp up in July.
Even now in the UK some data suggests a 50% underestimation of cases. Think we can safely increase that estimate somewhat here in the Philippines!

If you want to read more:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54283980
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Old Sep 25th 2020, 11:11 pm
  #408  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Announced yesterday were 2,630 more cases nationally of which 1,091 were from the NCR (85% recent) and 589 from Calabarzon. Keeping up with recent trends well under half from the NCR. Only 3 labs of over 130 didn't report.
So yesterday the NCR had 40% of recent cases, Calabarzon 25%.

Deaths were 69 nationwide but 26 of these were not recent. For the NCR there were 33, with 23 of these going back from August to May (1)!
The DOH found that 15 recoveries were in fact deaths!
Still over 1,700 patients in a critical condition.
The numbers tested mid-week strangely still a bit low....about 32k.

This is how the graphs of recent cases look now (from UP research group) for the Manila and Calabarzon regions:





During August the NCR was contributing 57% of new cases. But from the 7th to 20th September only 43% of recent cases were from the NCR.
From the 20th September the DOH lowered their assessment of NCR hospitals Covid capacity to "Medium Risk".

Soon a decision is to be made on Manila's quarantine status. Mainly meaning that some of the capacity limits relaxed. But if it goes down to MGCQ some Mayors are likely to keep some restrictions in place. Here in Paranaque there is still a requirement to show a Quarantine pass, a rule which operated way back during the ECQ. Was taken off for a few weeks then re-imposed. Needed for the Malls, but as we found yesterday it wasn't needed for a crowded covered fresh market! So a main reason why the Malls are sparsely populated here at this usually busy time of the year, with only one person from a household allowed in.

With the last quarter of the year a time when annual economic activity is at its peak more GCQ will further damage the economy. Pressure from business will be great to relax restrictions.. But if it goes to Modified GCQ I expect the rules of that Quarantine to be modified.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...rts-say/story/
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Old Sep 26th 2020, 10:13 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Again a national new case total of less than 3k reported. Just 3 labs not reporting and 90% of infections recent. For Manila 1,115, 41% of the total. But there less were recent: 86%.

Deaths announced 88 nationally with 36 of those in the NCR, The NCR backlog was 22. Wrongly categorised past recoveries which were deaths at 21 nationally!
Calabarzon 15 with a backlog. of 2.
Still 1,700 on the critical list.

On the face of it improving case figures but last Friday the total number of individuals tested was still low relative to capacity at 34k. The latest national R number is estimated at a borderline 0.95 and the latest national daily positivity rate is at 8.5%. Positivity for the NCR is not now regularly reported by the DOH, but it can be assumed to be 10%.or a little lower.

The WHO say you have control when positivity is under 5% for 14 days. We're nowhere near that. In the US states with similar positivity rates to here include Texas, Florida and Nevada,,...,considered current hotspots.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...mptions/story/

Obviously employees are not happy with the mask plus shield directive and maybe employers are noticing an effect on productivity. In Paranaque you must don both to get into Malls and City Hall. We find the shield makes you feel unpleasantly warm and stuffy and inhibits good communication. Few people shopping anyway. Shelf stackers can be observed working with the shield up. Yes, in the lab it adds a few percent protection in the unlikely event of someone sneezing virus directly at you. And maybe a bit more protection from aerosol carried virus. But then the inconvenience and it may mean employers will not focus on other measures so much?
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Old Sep 27th 2020, 12:51 am
  #410  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Raffin View Post
Again a national new case total of less than 3k reported. Just 3 labs not reporting and 90% of infections recent. For Manila 1,115, 41% of the total. But there less were recent: 86%.

Deaths announced 88 nationally with 36 of those in the NCR, The NCR backlog was 22. Wrongly categorised past recoveries which were deaths at 21 nationally!
Calabarzon 15 with a backlog. of 2.
Still 1,700 on the critical list.

On the face of it improving case figures but last Friday the total number of individuals tested was still low relative to capacity at 34k. The latest national R number is estimated at a borderline 0.95 and the latest national daily positivity rate is at 8.5%. Positivity for the NCR is not now regularly reported by the DOH, but it can be assumed to be 10%.or a little lower.

The WHO say you have control when positivity is under 5% for 14 days. We're nowhere near that. In the US states with similar positivity rates to here include Texas, Florida and Nevada,,...,considered current hotspots.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...mptions/story/

Obviously employees are not happy with the mask plus shield directive and maybe employers are noticing an effect on productivity. In Paranaque you must don both to get into Malls and City Hall. We find the shield makes you feel unpleasantly warm and stuffy and inhibits good communication. Few people shopping anyway. Shelf stackers can be observed working with the shield up. Yes, in the lab it adds a few percent protection in the unlikely event of someone sneezing virus directly at you. And maybe a bit more protection from aerosol carried virus. But then the inconvenience and it may mean employers will not focus on other measures so much?
Face shields...I fail to see the reason why spectacle wearers have to don face shields...

Keep up the good work Raffin....thank you!
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Old Sep 27th 2020, 1:34 am
  #411  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

P11 I agree what a pain. My specs keep on steaming up LOL
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Old Sep 27th 2020, 10:13 pm
  #412  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

New cases yesterday at 3k, with about a thousand from the NCR. With only 10% late for both regions. Calabarzon with 784 cases, but with 15% late reported. Central Luzon and W Visayas (Bacolod City) make up most of the remainder with 358 and 197 cases. As the numbers of individuals tested at the end of last week are only in the low 30k area we cannot yet confirm a steady downward trend. Latest daily positivity for NCR at 8.9% as against 8.5% nationally. Still high. Reproduction number estimated at 0.85. many more contact tracers are due to start work next month so the R estimates should then become more reliable than they are now.

Only 5 labs not reporting out of 135.

Deaths were 60 nationally, with 29 Manila and 6 Calabarzon. Manila with 17 going back from August. These were all wrongly reported as recoveries!

After adjusting for recoveries and deaths the Sunday active total comes to 46,272 compared to last Sunday at 51,894. Helpful. But there are nearly 2,500 patients in either a severe or critical condition.


Internationally the Philippines is now within 5,500 cases of reaching Italy's total.
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Old Sep 28th 2020, 12:39 am
  #413  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

"Internationally the Philippines is now within 5,500 cases of reaching Italy's total" Yes but when measured against cases per one million of population the Philippines is faring much better. The use of absolute numbers is always misleading.
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Old Sep 28th 2020, 1:09 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Bealinehx View Post
"Internationally the Philippines is now within 5,500 cases of reaching Italy's total" Yes but when measured against cases per one million of population the Philippines is faring much better. The use of absolute numbers is always misleading.
Agree. It is misleading. But ordering by cases is the main type of table published by the stats providers. Also the main way the general public would see it. Ordering by cases per million means many small countries like Qatar (44,549/m) would be at the top. With the exceptions of perhaps Peru and Chile the larger countries tend to head the cases table.
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Old Sep 28th 2020, 1:49 am
  #415  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Well the general public should be better informed by their leaders. Whoops, sorry that is too obvious and goes against political ambition.
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Old Sep 28th 2020, 2:06 am
  #416  
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Yes. One of the worst examples of that is when Trump boasts about the US doing the most tests (second to China anyway).
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Old Sep 28th 2020, 11:28 pm
  #417  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Well over 3k new cases again nationally. NCR with just over a thousand with 91% recent. It made up 38% of the national total. Next highest was Calabarzon with 825 (85% recent), then
W Visayas 286 and Central Luzon 206. Just 6 labs not reporting, Latest test data shows the level at a lowish 34k.

Again, the improvement over the last month not yet established into a clear downward trend although much data moving in the right direction.
So it was no surprise Manila staying under GCQ. However Calabarzon, except Batangas has gone to MGCQ.
A cabinet member said that certain cities in the NCR may be able to relax restrictions. Marikina was mentioned. On the 27th the top cities, well ahead of the rest, were Pasig, Manila, QC, and Taguig. Not going to a less restrictive quarantine in October will further depress the economy although maybe not by too much as people's spending power is down anyway. Maybe some psychological damage though, especially as the numbers in Manila have been publicised as improving.

Deaths at 37, with 21 in W Visayas..all recent. Contrast with NCR's 8 deaths backlog from August.

The DOH using the date of death give these curves:


What the DOH are dealing with in a country with many densely populated communities:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ays-doh/story/





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Old Sep 29th 2020, 1:12 am
  #418  
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https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...emic-leader-ao

I wonder if he's now counted as a recovery? Mostly under OLAN RECOVERY the Philippines is claiming over 250k recoveries. They are supposed to be found symptom free after a certain time period. But what if some symptoms recur or some new ones appear?

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/30/...hs-explanation


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Old Sep 29th 2020, 9:38 pm
  #419  
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Yesterday just over 2k cases announced nationally. 81% of them recent. For the NCR 628, 31% of the total and 86% recent. Calabarzon 517 with only 57% recent. This region is tending to be late in reporting. Only 4 ;labs not reporting.
The latest test numbers from 2 days ago are only 21k. No explanation seems to have been asked for or given as to why recently for the fall in testing. Need not matter if they are getting better at targeting I suppose? But if not results are going to be misleading.

Deaths at 68 with 26 NCR, 13 W Visayas and 7 Calabarzon. All three regions with late reporting from August back...9 in NCR, 5 W Visayas and 2 Calabarzon.

The latest 7 day cases moving average graph:


On the international front we are getting close to overtaking Pakistan, which is only reporting hundreds of daily new cases.

Closer to home Myanmar looks like it is in trouble with increasing numbers of new cases and deaths with a low testing rate for its over 50m population.

Today 4 bus services will restart from Cavite to Manila....but what a palaver! You wonder how many will bother?

"The coronavirus task force (IATF) imposed the following restrictions for passengers: Passengers must wear face masks and shields, undergo temperature checks, fill out contact tracing sheets, maintain one-meter physical distance, and no eating and talking while inside the buses.
The LTFRB also required that passengers to purchase bus tickets at least two days before the intended trip. Passengers must bring the following the documents during the trip: a travel pass from the police in their departure terminal, a valid identification card, and written consent to undergo testing or quarantine should the local government of your destination require it."

But it's not all bad news...Cavite is famous (or infamous?) for its fleet of "baby buses"..based on stretched, aging Jeeps. Patched up and cramped these weird vehicles brought passengers in to Manila from towns in Northern Cavite:

"Because of the arrival of the spanking new mini-buses, the colorful but aging baby buses Cavite is known for will gradually vanish from the roads"
(report from Rappler if you want to read more).
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Old Sep 30th 2020, 11:45 am
  #420  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

I have nothing but nothing but good for the way Marikina City and my Brgy Sto Nino supported my wife and I after we were diagnosed with COVID-19. My wife was given the all clear after two weeks but had to suffer house arrest until I was given the all clear today. I compiled a timeline of my experience for the Local Health Office. I have pasted it below.COVID-19 TIMELINE

British Citizen Age 73
Height 170 cm. At start of Timeline Weight 70 kg. BMI 24.2 High end of Healthy Zone.

At end of Timeline Weight 65kg. BMI 22.5 Centre of Healthy Zone



Medical History 1952 Tonsillect
1988 Malaria, Accra, Ghana
2003 Malaria, Lagos, Nigeria
As of writing no underlying medical conditions.
15 August 2020 Sore Throat
16 August 2020 Sore Throat and high temperature
17 August 2020. Reduced high temperature
18, 19 August 2020. Loss of appetite, loose stools, fatigue.
20 August 2020 Private COVID-19 swab POSITIVE
Loss of appetite, loose stools, fatigue.

20-28 August 2020 Loss of appetite, loose stools, fatigue.

29 August 2020 Feeling stronger, no indications of fatigue.

30 August 2020 No symptoms, full appetite. Back to normal.

September 2020 Brgy Sto Nino arrange COVIV-19 swab POSITIVE
Everything completely normal

12 September 2020 Brgy Sto Nino arrange COVIV-19 swab POSITIVE
Everything completely normal. Recommenced a modified exercise regime.

21 September 2020 This marks 35 days in strict quarantine and 22 days of feeling completely normal.

22 September 2020 Brgy Sto Nino arrange COVIV-19 swab POSITIVE

28 September 2020 Brgy Sto Nino arrange COVIV-19 swab POSITIVE30 September 2020 Swab result NEGATIVE

This marks 45 days in strict quarantine and 32 days of feeling completely normal.

THE END !
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