Raffin

Think those countries struggling to contain the virus and whose governments are being seen by people to have mishandled things will be desperate to use the first vaccines they can get, regardless of their effectiveness and maybe even their safety. Will that include the Philippines?

Bealinehx

Probably

Bealinehx

So nearly 5000 new CIVID cases today.

Stokkevn

A few pointers on these. I did a hydraulic air flow analysis ( I know a sado with sod all else to do ) on the rider/pillion barrier using two standard industry tools, both showed that it would make it worse than with no barrier, mainly because there is less updraft from below the riders head ( mostly coming from the downward pointing thighs ) indicating that all the air from around the riders head ends up round the pillions head, still awaiting for the design of the married couple's bedroom barrier when they get home from riding the bike. WRT the jeepneys they are now regulated to the actual amount of passengers they are registered for which automatically cuts down the chance of catching the virus from another passenger by more that 50% without any plastic sheeting barriers.

Stokkevn

Most likely - not. After the SONA the other day when the president claimed to be requesting preferential treatment to get a vaccine from China and then a few minutes later mentioning military action over the SCS

Bealinehx

"still awaiting for the design of the married couple's bedroom barrier when they get home from riding the bike"
That's made my evening LOL

Raffin

But I think he said the Philippines "cannot afford to go to war" over the SCS? The PH will remain a pussycat. Though it might get interesting if Trump tries something there to help his re-election. To look tougher on sovereignty the Sabah claim is being raised.
No doubt Xi will use the vaccine as leverage, especially if the outbreak here is still out of control later this year. Read that the PH is also in a WHO scheme called COVAX.
Early days, but looks useful.

https://mb.com.ph/2020/08/01/covax-c...accine-for-ph/

Raffin

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/02/...r-govt-adviser

To be fair many European countries have greatly unreported Covid deaths, especially the UK. The difference here is that the relatively low number of deaths is seen as one of the good points of the virus situation.

Bealinehx

I think you will find that the criteria that the UK use for reporting deaths due to COVID-19 greatly overstates the true picture. I suggest you examine how Germany seems to be under reporting its deaths. There is in fact no true comparison between European countries.
The true picture here is impossible to fathom. I'm sure that the ABS-CBN quote greatly understates reality.

Raffin

For the UK I don't see much that would greatly overstate Covid related deaths. There is an issue about positive coronavirus tests being too far in the past, affecting about 10%. of deaths. Even some who later died after being hit by a vehicle may have been included! The government report on this hasn't come out yet. But then there must be cases where there is no prior positive Covid test result. For Germany questions have been asked about their low death rate but it seems from reading some discussions that their testing and demographics are mostly the cause, rather than data recording.

As you say, it's difficult to compare these stats across Europe...that's why it's better to look at excess deaths to get an idea of the probable extent of under reporting. That's what I was relying on when I said there was a lot of under reporting across Europe. I saw a report on excess deaths some months ago. Using excess deaths gives a better picture of the effect of the pandemic eg includes people dying at home but never tested, dying from other conditions as they didn't show up at hospital.

A fortnight ago The Economist published this very detailed analysis:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ross-countries

Excess deaths have been used to look at 'flu seasons, so the methods are well practised. You will see Britain and Spain doing the worst, with the numbers large enough not to be able to be explained away by statistical differences. Even Germany almost doubles its deaths.

As the article says outside Europe and the Americas you can't do this analysis. So we just have to rely on what we see here with the poverty, standard of health care, poor recording etc to safely assume that Covid related deaths are well above official figures. Even if Dr Leachon is over-estimating by 50% , which I very much doubt, the real figure is double the official one.

Bealinehx

The Economist article is the best on the subject that I have seen. Maybe in my dotage I should consider reopening my subscription.

Raffin

It's good but too much to read each week for me now. You could try CNNs Fareed Zakaria's Global Briefing? Good summaries of articles from The Economist and other publications sent free to your inbox about 3 times a week.

Bealinehx

Raffin,
Thanks I'll give it a try.

Raffin

So over the weekend nearly 10k extra cases. For the two days only 74 and 70 labs reported out of 94. On testing you can calculate that just under 30k tests were done in the 24 hr period July31/Aug 1, which is higher by 4k compared to July24/25 last weekend. And a lot more tests are being done than they were doing back in May and June. Good, they are finding the infections. Can't find any recent test positivity rate estimates to better see how they are doing. (Figures from recent DOH coronavirus case bulletins on Fb)

https://rappler.com/nation/after-fro...-august-4-2020

Following representations from frontliners Manila reverted to MECQ today for two weeks. Main measures: no public transport and 50% business maximum capacity. Although I thought that was the case under GCQ? Also some government services closing. Quarantine passes are mentioned, but no detail. I don't think two more weeks of MECQ will do much to get on top of the pandemic. We had many weeks of ECQ. Two months maybe would? Then destroy the economy and empty government coffers. Hopefully government minds will be concentrated in the next fortnight to improve in some areas, but I can't see any radical moves. But good that the medical workers got some benefits.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/02/...s-disinfectant

This was a few days ago. Previously I said that the President didn't deserve to be talked of alongside those leaders in the US and Brazil who are doing a poor job, even sometimes working against measures to fight the pandemic. He didn't recommend gasoline injections in these remarks so I think he can stay in the Championship and not be promoted to the Premier League. If you are kind it can even be seen as an attempt at a distraction...there's a lot of those around now.
But, this morning here's something that could change my view:

https://rappler.com/nation/piqued-du...on-against-him

At present there's only mild concern internationally about this country and coronavirus. That can soon change. Many countries are having a tough time but most leaders are not doing this sort of thing. Much more of it and the reputation of this country will plummet, affecting business and tourism. Except maybe Chinese.

jaygee68

Perhaps Rappler's days are numbered.