Raffin

The DOH have,for the first time, put out data for the NCR and Central Visayas on hospital beds for COVID patients. As of Monday they say in the NCR regular ward beds were 89% full,. Isolation beds 82% and ICU beds 69% full. Critical levels which have a bad effect on the whole hospital. Though the situation in Central Visayas was much better.

Various suggestions have been made to improve things in the NCR,. Raising the percentage of dedicated beds, temporary hospitals..... even going as far as sending patients to provincial hospitals. But this could be good. A system to link Manila hospitals to find a bed for them:

COVID patients:https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/24/...cr-other-areas

Hopefully will work but there is a mix of public and private hospitals here, differing in what they can offer and who already have their own relationships. And then there is the prevalent practice of using influence and contacts here to jump a queue.

Raffin

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ays-doh/story/

Maybe like many of you I know hardly anything about these sites, which have the very user friendly acronym of TTMFs! Obviously they begin to defeat their purpose when they get crowded. Over 80k beds nationwide and plenty available, but the main problem is now in the NCR and its surrounding provinces,

https://rappler.com/nation/list-coro...rs-philippines

This April Rappler article shows just a few thousand beds at that time in Manila and nearby.areas. Must be many more now. It lists some sites for future TTMFs, including the Quezon Memorial Circle and the Duty Free in Paranaque. The latter seemed quiet when we passed by it recently so don't think it is being used at present.

It says that the running of these facilities is shouldered by "private partners". I doubt if that is still the case, at least for many of the sites, a few months later. Must be costing a fortune.

Bealinehx

Interesting to note that the daily declaration of new cases has dropped from around 2200 to around 1800. If accurate a positive trend. I have my doubts.

Raffin

Search on either Google or Bing and you will see a very erratic graph of new cases. True, there were some recent days with over 2000,to 2,200 and now it's somewhat less. My suspicious mind is thinking of the SONA, but it could be more to do with the lab reporting.
There's 90 or 91 labs working and the number of them reporting each day over the last week are, going forward, 75,78,78,66,59.81,83. Varied a lot, and most important we're not told their capacity. A small glimmer of hope is that the last two days average is 1,776 and there were a high number of labs reporting on both days.
But with a daily positivity rate likely still to be higher than 13% in the NCR it's probably too early to be hopeful. The WHO say that after 5% an outbreak is out of control.

Raffin

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/30/...uterte-comment

In his recent SONA the Philippine President said he wants to create a body similar to the CDC in the US. Called the Disease Prevention & Management Agency. But then he's not sure..he will leave it to Congress. Anyway, it would be under the DOH and not separate. Meanwhile the DOH is proposing the Philippines Center for Disease Control and Prevention...and there are already bills in Congress on that! Confusion reigns.
You wonder where they will get all the expert staff, unless they come from existing agencies, academia and the DOH . Hopefully they won't try to set it up now, when these people are fighting the outbreak and the civil servants need to focus on current administrative matters
The CDC in the US used to have a great deal of autonomy, but in recent times its authority has been greatly diminished by the administration. With a more authoritarian type of government here it seems any new body will be advisory only and the public will know even less than the US public does about what advice its CDC is giving in the middle of any future disease outbreaks. The DOH will still be in charge.
You would also think it sensible to wait until the Covid outbreak is under control here so lessons can be learned before setting up any new body. The only good thing is that the rush to change at least shows they can see what they have done so far hasn't worked well.

Bealinehx

The latest declaration of nearly 4000 new COVID-19 cases confirms my doubts about data reporting and collection. It has always been apparent with the spasmodic patterns of new declarations that something was amiss.
Sadly the demon of administration, mountains of paperwork and the inability of those in positions of authority to accept any responsibility have worked against the well being and protection of the general population.
The decision to close down ABS-CBN has curtailed the transmission of timely advice to the public.

Raffin

Does look bad but given the big daily variations we need to use 7 day moving averages to see the trend......but the more they look the more they will find. They want to increase testing and they're starting pooled testing soon, That will find cases more quickly. The Rainy Season seems to have at last started. That will have an effect on transmission.

The most surprising thing was the shedding of 30,000 active cases over yesterday's number in a major data clean up. Remember the "highest number of active cases in SE Asia" headlines of just a few days ago? I suppose we must applaud them, but it makes you wonder even more about the other data they put out.

Looked up the latest Philippines deaths doubling time on Our World in Data. At 56 days, similar to Iran and Sudan. Thailand and Malaysia were both at 114. For comparison, with their older populations, US at 84 and UK at 96. Philippines not that good now and its death doubling time may well worsen over the next few months.

Raffin

Never mind...the President has just said it will all be over in December, when we get the vaccine from China.

So in the mean time we have to deal with Meralco bills. Gave them a good grade a few weeks ago for sending a very clear account of all the bills. But today they delivered a demand for the immediate payment of two installments, which I paid through one of their Bayad centers 3 weeks ago. So payment of the remaining installments only through the regular payment offices probably not possible .Also bills for June and July are showing online, but no paper bills delivered. So you also can't pay them easily outside. Visit to a crowded Business Center required.

Bealinehx

I have no problems with Meralco all my transactions are online.
Going back to your earlier post concerning the 7 day moving average the pattern does still not give one confidence.
So far as the Chinese vaccine is concerned they have 1.4 billion to deal with first. Not sure who is the best manager in this crisis, The Donald or Du30?

jaygee68

"The decision to close down ABS-CBN has curtailed the transmission of timely advice to the public."

Indeed.Johnson,Trump,Bolsonaro,Duterte............ .......................There is a pattern emerging here.

False opinions are like counterfeit monies, struck first of all by guilty men and thereafter circulated by honest people who perpetuate the crime without knowing what they are doing.

Raffin

Certainly the last three have a lot in common and not to be admired or tolerated. I think the leader here has been too militaristic and slow with testing, but he isn't in the same league as the middle two in that short list. He has done or not done some things which may have helped and will be helping..He acted quickly on lockdown in Manila,, mid March until June, and has re-opened cautiously. He's not pushing face to face school tuition anywhere, even in areas with low virus. Not yet, anyway.

Even if ABS-CBN hadn't been taken off for the viewing of most people, Filipinos have a record of supporting their leaders, whatever. I recall that the previous President was getting almost equally high approval ratings in 2016 as is the incumbent, at least just before the pandemic. I give him a bare passing grade on Covid only, but that will probably soon change to an F

Bealinehx

So todays declaration of new COVID-19 cases has doubled to just over 4000. I really don't care how the authorities try to justify this appalling news, the beginnings of an exponential increase is truly alarming.
Perhaps at last we are seeing some transparency which has taken five months in coming.
Take care one and all.

Raffin

The labs here are obviously struggling to process results. Yesterday's figure maybe just because of some freed blockage and the numbers may fall back. somewhat. We will see. But it looks like 150,000 cases by the end of the month will be easily achieved, Deaths also seem to be rising gradually. Though the government can now point to a large number of recoveries following 28,000 being removed the other day due to changes in WHO recommendations. However, if you watch Chris Cuomo's show on CNN regularly you will hear a lot of concerns about the longer term effects of the virus on patients after their "recovery" from Covid.

The health service here is under great pressure and this WHO report shows how bad the Philippines situation is in comparison with other SE nations:

https://rappler.com/nation/philippin...asia-un-report

Although there are a lot of people here in their late 20s and 30s who have given up, or not even used their qualification in nursing due to the lack of jobs and the low salary.

While all this is going on we have this idea being floated:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...f-lopez/story/

Not as crazy as the motorcycle barrier, but definitely not the answer. Masks and shields on a Jeepney? Hot, visibility problem. Was thinking the shield can even trap virus laden air? Normally on a Jeep there is a good flow of air. Low ventilation indoor areas? Really? People shouldn't be made to congregate in them in the first place. Keep them mainly for use in hospitals dealing with virus infected patients. The President's spokesman also got in on the act, as he normally does, but later the idea of the economics qualified DTI Secretary to give people 100% protection was changed by the IATF from a requirement to a recommendation. I don't think we will hear much more about it.

But with the worsening situation we might see more ideas like it to give the public the impression they can control the outbreak until the we get the Chinese vaccine in December and have it given out by the military! A few days ago the Russians announced they would have a vaccine available well before the Chinese are promising...it could be good as they have probably been stealing from Western labs. I was waiting for the President here to announce he was also interested in getting their vaccine.

Bealinehx

Interesting that the NHS highlight the positive benefits on prevention when in an airflow, even a mild breeze. So the ludicrous motor cycle shield may have a negative effect. Also jeepneys may also be a safer form of transport than cabs, Grab, PUV's and new air con jeepneys.

Too much political BS regarding early availability of vaccine. China for the Chinese, Russia for the Russians no need to go further. The political naivety is quite stunning. Or perhaps a better analogy is a headless chicken.

Enough from me this weekend time to consume a few San Mig's.
Keep safe one and all.

Gazza-d

Both Russia and China sending early releases of a vaccine to the Philippines who will be giving it to the poor first, human trials anyone.