Raffin

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/...134640402.html

A concise report from Aljazeera on Manila\s reversion to a stricter quarantine and how it got there. The station can be difficult to find in the long lists on cable TV here but is easy to view online. Its news website is an international version of Rappler. Luckily for the government they are carrying reports on countries in Asia guilty of much worse mishandling of the fight against the virus eg one on Iran covering up two thirds of its deaths. That was also reported by the BBC, but they are not reporting as regularly these days on the Philippines.

Raffin

Covid deaths here showing an uptick lately. In the last week there were 176 official covid deaths announced. In the previous week 126. The total now is 2,059 and if the death rate for the last week is maintained until the end of this month that would mean an additional 700 or so. If deaths trend upwards reaching 3,000 or more at the end of the month is definitely possible.

But trying to put this in perspective the normal mortality rate here is only about 5 or 6 per 1,000. For the UK and USA it is around 8 or 9. Countries with the highest figures reach about 14.
So covid deaths don't yet look significant here compared with a normal total of over half a million per year. Or viewing covid deaths as one event they don't compare with typhoons. The worst lately,Yolanda, killed over 6,000 in 2016.

Bealinehx

That's all fine and dandy. Do you really believe that the daily declarations are accurate?

Raffin

I think just about all the virus stats the DOH puts out are just a starting point to be either significantly added to or subtracted from. Deaths to be significantly added to. But in the absence of much critical investigation around in local popular media I think the public will mostly believe them. Even if it is 5,000 deaths officially at the end of August the government will probably say it's not so bad just look at the figures in other countries and that will still register with the public who do see reports from around the world on local TV.

Will they still be able to get away with that spin at the end of the year if the situation continues to get worse? Maybe, especially if SE Asian neighbours are also still in trouble. But it will be more difficult.

Raffin

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/04/...nal-says-group

Premier League!

Bealinehx

Agreed, maybe he has the age issues as The Donald.

RedApe

One issue is that the most accurate tests require lab capacity. Let's say labs can process 10000 tests daily (that's probably being very overly generous) and you have about 80% testing negative. So that means you'd cap out at 2000 reported positives. It would flatline until you increased testing PROCESSING capacity.

In fact, you'll simply get many samples that will sit in a fridge somewhere awaiting processing. Maybe a better measure of the increase would be the ratio of positive to negative tests. Of course one is likely testing only the symptomatic and those that are targeted by contact tracing.

I just heard on the Beeb there is a rapid test kit for antigen that takes about 90 minutes and can be done in the field by non-professionals. It's got a fairly high accuracy. Hopefully they can get these distributed globally as that would provide a more tangible assessment of the actual numbers of infected. It would allow random population assessments.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53632043

Raffin

Watched an interview of his niece on CNN about the book she has written about her uncle. She said that what you see now is what he has always been. I think you can also say the same thing about the man here, allowing for the differences in scope and scale between his positions in Davao and now at Malacanag.

Raffin

Listened to a discussion about re-opening schools in the US. Children are often going to be split up into groups. One school head explained that after re-opening at his school all kids in the group would need to undergo 14 days quarantine if any one kid tested positive. Maybe one day before a widespread vaccination programme can start a rapid test with a decent level of accuracy could be used at the start of each day on kept apart children. After a couple of hours they could revert to their groups with much more confidence than now.

Bealinehx

Who cares about the US when here as I write there 6000 plus cases declared today. Too many theories and unqualified opinions, The only resolution is when a vaccine is universally available.
We all have to accept that for the moment that the lifestyle that we have been used to has gone for the foreseeable future. Just let the people who are qualifies take over!!!

Bealinehx

Raffin are you the BBC correspondent in the Philippines?

Gazza-d

I read somewhere that the rapid test that detected antibodies is no good because half the people don't produce them and product T cells. To be sure you need to test for both.

Raffin

I think it's interesting to hear what\s happening in the US and elsewhere. The US especially as it's got more than a quarter of official world cases. A bad example to avoid but a lot of good ideas come from there. On school re-opening the President here has said he's against face to face classes but others in the government want to restart soon in low risk areas. Online learning generally won't work here. I have a personal interest in the school issue.

As it's a new virus the medical experts are finding out about it as they go along. There are some disagreements. Politicians should keep out of strictly medical areas but the decisions on what to do are up to them, not any experts, and so it should be seen as equally valid for anybody to comment, criticize and make suggestions drawing on their own knowledge and experience. If you don't allow that you get measures like the motorcycle barrier. The hoped for vaccines and better anti viral treatments will probably take a long time to work, meaning we will end up living with a low level of virus like the 'flu but one which is much more infectious and with more serious.effects We can't just wait that long and not attend to issues like schooling, unemployment, especially in a country like the Philippines

BBC? Ha ha! But it would be nice to do that in some minor way and be paid. But probably not allowed as likely to be classed as political activity in the visa, especially these days. Of course our discussions are safety valve only. But one person in the UK at least has liked what I report.. And when retired you have to do something to keep mentally active with lockdown restrictions in force and not spend all of the day watching movies.

Bealinehx

Raffin,
Well put especially at the end. Thankfully a VPN gives access to more thoughtful viewing than the mediocre offerings on Skycable.

Raffin

Thanks. For rolling news and good discussions on covid CNN US can be viewed without a VPN. There are at least three sites pirating the channel, but they need regular attention to refresh the stream.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/05/...-mecq-governor

People are finding it very difficult to get to work under MECQ. If it's going to be extended beyond 2 weeks then we will certainly be stocking up on food like some people did last Monday. Since going into GCQ limited public transport operated at reduced capacity and with many precautions. Under MECQ many businesses are still allowed to operate much the same as under GCQ. So how now do they get to work if they don't have their own transport? I guess that not many have company shuttle buses. Another example of decisions from the politicians and experts which show a lack of understanding of how people in Manila and the surrounding region live. Many people travel long distances to get to work to get a greater salary and to further their career.
A few years ago a doctor in a top Manila hospital I saw complained about there being too many buses on the streets.