Shard

When you say "do people" (care) what you actually mean is "do the English" as most Scots, Welsh, NI do have firm views one way or another on the union. Hard to know how England would vote on a trade off between keeping the UK together and remaining within the EU. One would think that European identity is even more an abstract concept than British identity, but the gutter press has whipped up such a paranoia about the EU that some are prepared to see a break up of the four nations.

BristolUK

There have been several opinion polls indicating a vote the other way. Of course such polls were wrong last time and have been wrong before. But mostly, they've been fairly accurate.

There were also many people who didn't vote. It seems a reasonable assumption that those wanting to leave did actually vote because not voting to leave was more likely to result in remaining.

Of course, it's also possible that some of those would now vote to leave because of the failure to do so since. But I imagine that would be few.

As to people being just as misinformed this time - I'm sure many people now know that the £350m for the NHS was a lie. If that was a major factor - and one assumes the effort put into it was not misguided (a bit like if advertising doesn't work why spend so much money on it?) then it would be less of a convincer this time, perhaps even the opposite.

I'm certain that some people also know the fines for offences (and the number of offences themselves) imposed on the leave side by the electoral commission massively exceeded those on the remain side, indicating a high level of disonhesty on the leave side compared to remain. Quite possibly, though, the uninformed may remain uninformed in that respect but some will have been informed (by family, friends, forums, even if their 'news' source of choice hasn't told them.

Will they still vote for the shown to be dishonest side?

I like to think not, but there's increasing evidence that since the integrity bar was lowered, enough don't give a damn about such niceties anymore.

Almost Canadian

Maybe, but England isn't making noises about breaking up the union and I stand by my position that most in England really won't care.

Having patrolled NI prior to the Good Friday Agreement I know that, in those times, virtually everyone felt one way or the other, as result of events that related to events that occurred prior to Brexit. I have no idea if that has changed, but I doubt it.

The recent independence referendum in Scotland showed what the position was then and, while that may have changed since, polls suggest otherwise. My experience of having to deal with lots of Scots resulted from my time in the Army and, when I first met them, I was taken aback by how their views of the English had been affected by what they had learned in school. My recollection of school history was that there was no mention of anything related to the battles between the two countries. I have never experienced any animosity towards Scots from the English, but I have experienced lots that went the other way. So I accept that Scots may feel very differently towards the English than the English about the Scots.

I would argue that most in Wales really don't care but I accept that residents of rural north Wales hate the English with a passion. Whether that is because of events from centuries ago, or more recent events, is debatable but, again, politicians aside, I have no experience of the Welsh wanting to break away from the UK and go it alone.

One never hears of the Scots having an issue with the Welsh, or those in NI, or the Welsh having an issue with those in NI or Scotland. I accept that those in NI that wish to have a united Ireland always refer to "Brits" rather than the "English." As a result of this, I believe that Scotland has an issue with "England" rather than with NI or Wales, but I accept that I may be wrong.

I believe that most English identify as being "British", most Scots identify as being "Scottish", most in Wales are somewhat ambivalent between being "Welsh" and being "British" and those in NI will identify as either "Irish" or "British" along sectarian grounds.

Almost Canadian

Who knows? As I have stated before, unless someone interviews everyone that voted for leave to determine why they voted the way they did, all assumptions made as to why remain lost are simply that.

The electorate always gets what it deserves.

BristolUK

All of which might suggest increased animosity towards England - and thus a greater desire to separate - if leaving the EU (and having that hard border) is something they get against their wishes.

Shard

Just read today that this Dominic Cummings is in fact the son of a baronet. It does seem that those with the least to lose are the most vigorous propenents of Brexit.

Almost Canadian

Is there really any doubt that the Scots may make noises about leaving the union post Brexit? Whether that will actually happen is another issue altogether.

The "hard border" issue is a bullshit issue, if we are talking about a border for immigration/trade. It is perfectly possible to resolve this so that there is minimal effect on both parties, the problem is, one party doesn't wish to play nicely as they hope that that will keep the UK in the EU.

If we are talking about tariffs, there is minimal benefit to either side playing hardball either and, as the EU has made it clear that the UK cannot have free movement of goods and services without also having free movement of people, the simple solution would be for each to impose minimum tariffs upon the other (0.1% for example). Of course, the bureaucrats in the EU will object to this because it may persuade others to leave but, when reality hits the member States, I imagine that that position will change dramatically.

Is the deal that the EU struck with Canada so bad that it couldn't be used as a starting point for the EU's negotiations with the UK? Other than the backstop nonsense, what was so bad with the agreement attempted by May?

These are all perfectly possible to overcome, time will tell whether that happens.

dbd33

A second referendum is less likely to choose leave as, in the past three years, more leave voters will have died.

dbd33

He's not likely to be the son of a plumber, is he? He's a mate of Boris.

dave_j

A great many spleens being vented here.
We tend to reflect the Commons here.
There are those who view the referendum as some kind of aberration on the part of the UK electorate and it's up to them to teach the UK electorate the errors of their ways.
There are those, myself included, who view the referendum result as that rarity, a clear expression of the will of the UK electorate.
The result was a binary choice and there'll always be those who'll be upset no matter which way the vote went and I'll accept that they have the right to moan but what they don't have the right to do is to brush the result aside as though it had never happened and try for a 'two out of three' choice.

Novocastrian

I suggest that you fire up your Netflix and watch The Great Hack. Then rent a bus for £350 million a week and take your time to research Aaron Banks' Russia connections.

Shard

Your assumption is that 'first past the post' is everything. If this were a horse race or even a football game, I'd give you that. However, this is re-structuring a huge economy and legal system that has been intensively integrated over four decades. Parliament is doing it's best to save ill informed voters from themselves. Not all Brexit voters are I'll informed. Some are very aware of the risks the project entails, but they are so well insulated that they are willing to take the gamble. Do you think Rees-Mogg will be queuing up for his chlorinated chicken if we leave?
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Shard

It's the t-shirts, good camouflage.

Tumbling_Dice

Exactly. What the referendum has laid bare is the shockingly bad standard of governance in the UK, the unsuitability of the FPTP system, and that progressively increased centralisation has been disastrous for the unity of the country (I give you Scottish independence, or neglect of the North of England). I can absolutely believe they have all buggered off on their hols.

Tumbling_Dice

What should, in my humble estimation, have happened (given it was an advisory vote) is that the government should have used the result to start a national conversation on what the hell it meant. I am no longer sure it was as clear cut as it seemed, but there is no doubt that the ensuing madness and bitter exchanges have caused people to dig in. As an aside, this would likely have also started a much needed conversation on how the UK sees itself, what it wants to be, desperately needed political reform etc. All this should have happened, and a fleshed out vision for the future developed, before triggering A50 (if that would have even been needed). I mean, who goes into negotiations without an agreed negotiating position?