PM Boris

Old Aug 12th 2019, 4:27 pm
  #151  
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Default Re: PM Boris

Originally Posted by macadian View Post
I have been following this thread with interest. I don't pretend to understand the full implications of leaving the EU however, given the diverse opinions featured here I think I can be excused on that lack of understanding. One question I do have is in relation the apparent stumbling block, the 'backstop' and the Irish border. Boris seems to think it's simply a means of keeping the UK stuck in the EU by hook or by crook. It was pointed out to me the other day that Switzerland is bordered by five EU countries.....and no hard border with any of them. Why the apparent intransigence from the EU wanting to maintain the backstop? On the face of it, does this lend credence to the opinion held by Boris and many others that it's simply a ploy to shackle the UK to the EU after the UK leaves?
The backstop only exists because the UK government requested a transition period (which the withdrawal agreement is part of). The backstop is there to ensure that the provisions of the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement are upheld. The EU are a co-guarantor for that agreement so they are only doing due diligence. I get the impression that the EU don't actually like the idea of a backstop but it's the best solution to a hard problem - I think the EU would have preferred to skip the transition period and started negotiating on a free trade agreement instead.
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Old Aug 12th 2019, 4:57 pm
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Default Re: PM Boris

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian View Post
Is anyone in NI seriously proposing cutting ties with Westminster and uniting Ireland and, if so, is anyone taking them seriously?

Does anyone know what process would be required?

I take a very different view to you regarding the border issue giving the EU significant leverage. I believe it will have the exact opposite effect the closer the parties get to October 31, as I don't believe that the likes of Germany will allow their trade with the UK to be tanked by an issue at the Irish border that could be easily overcome. Full marks to the EU for remaining "together" at this time (at least in public) but I would expect that to change the nearer we get to October 31, particularly if the only real issue between the parties is the backstop.
Quite a lot of talk about a post-Brexit border poll in NI. Look into it.

I've been hearing how Germany and/or Merckel would pressurise the EU to accommodate Britain for three years now. It's not happening. So much of this current cabinet (and Eurosceptic) view/strategy has been about calling the EU's bluff. Sadly, for the UK, their calling ours and we're about to get roasted.

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Old Aug 12th 2019, 5:11 pm
  #153  
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Default Re: PM Boris

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
Quite a lot of talk about a post-Brexit border poll in NI. Look into it.

I've been hearing how Germany and/or Merckel would pressurise the EU to accommodate Britain for three years now. It's not happening. So much of this current cabinet (and Eurosceptic) view/strategy has been about calling the EU's bluff. Sadly, for the UK, their calling ours and we're about to get roasted.
I agree that the EU are doing a far better job of negotiating in public, primarily because, at this time, the interested parties are all singing from the same hymn sheet and are not trying to undercut one another (as the interested parties in the UK are). Time will tell if that continues right up to October 31.

I would bet that, post October 31 and no deal, life in the UK will be affected far less than you believe.
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Old Aug 12th 2019, 5:13 pm
  #154  
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Default Re: PM Boris

Originally Posted by bc2015 View Post
The backstop only exists because the UK government requested a transition period (which the withdrawal agreement is part of). The backstop is there to ensure that the provisions of the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement are upheld. The EU are a co-guarantor for that agreement so they are only doing due diligence. I get the impression that the EU don't actually like the idea of a backstop but it's the best solution to a hard problem - I think the EU would have preferred to skip the transition period and started negotiating on a free trade agreement instead.
How do you explain the fact that they have done the exact opposite then, insisting that things can only move forward in a sequence of their making?
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Old Aug 12th 2019, 5:14 pm
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Default Re: PM Boris

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian View Post
I would bet that, post October 31 and no deal, life in the UK will be affected far less than you believe.
Curious to know why you bet that.
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Old Aug 12th 2019, 5:23 pm
  #156  
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Default Re: PM Boris

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian View Post
How do you explain the fact that they have done the exact opposite then, insisting that things can only move forward in a sequence of their making?
Because the UK has yet to offer any feasible alternative. This is the biggest issue right now - all Boris can say is "no backstop!" but doesn't actually have any alternative beyond some handwaving about technological solutions that don't yet exist.
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Old Aug 12th 2019, 5:39 pm
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Default Re: PM Boris

Originally Posted by bc2015 View Post
Because the UK has yet to offer any feasible alternative. This is the biggest issue right now - all Boris can say is "no backstop!" but doesn't actually have any alternative beyond some handwaving about technological solutions that don't yet exist.
Well, to be fair, Boris inherited the current position.

I wasn't referring to the current position but to the fact that the EU was the party that determined that, "...this cannot happen, until this happens..." none of which was based in law at all. From what I have seen, they have refused to discuss a trade agreement until the items they wanted to get resolved, were resolved, which, to me, appears to contradict the statement you made that I highlighted above.
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Old Aug 12th 2019, 5:43 pm
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Default Re: PM Boris

Originally Posted by bc2015 View Post
Curious to know why you bet that.
Because our friend Shard appears to believe that the sky is falling and I don't believe that it will fall to the extent that he believes it will.

If no deal is arrived at by October 31 (and even if a deal is arrived at) some things will be worse, some things will be better. Simply focusing upon one is only half of the story and I would bet that a few years from now, most people would have got used to the new situation and will not be that concerned about the old situation.
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Old Aug 12th 2019, 5:50 pm
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Default Re: PM Boris

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian View Post
Well, to be fair, Boris inherited the current position.

I wasn't referring to the current position but to the fact that the EU was the party that determined that, "...this cannot happen, until this happens..." none of which was based in law at all. From what I have seen, they have refused to discuss a trade agreement until the items they wanted to get resolved, were resolved, which, to me, appears to contradict the statement you made that I highlighted above.
The UK wanted a transition period, it could have negotiated a FTA before now but it didn't. If the FTA was completed there would be no need for the backstop. The EU is only holding the UK to account for what it already agreed upon.
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Old Aug 12th 2019, 6:16 pm
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Default Re: PM Boris

Originally Posted by bc2015 View Post
The UK wanted a transition period, it could have negotiated a FTA before now but it didn't. If the FTA was completed there would be no need for the backstop. The EU is only holding the UK to account for what it already agreed upon.
I believe that the EU stated that a trade deal could not be negotiated before a number of other issues were "resolved" which is why the UK requested a transition period.

In any event, the position that both find themselves in is what it is and time will tell how the UK will leave the EU.
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Old Aug 12th 2019, 6:30 pm
  #161  
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Default Re: PM Boris

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian View Post
I believe that the EU stated that a trade deal could not be negotiated before a number of other issues were "resolved" which is why the UK requested a transition period.

In any event, the position that both find themselves in is what it is and time will tell how the UK will leave the EU.
Those issues could have been resolved in parallel, but the UK triggered article 50 without having any clue what it wanted from the negotiations and then decided to have an election in the middle of it all. A better prepared government could have done a better job.
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Old Aug 13th 2019, 12:47 am
  #162  
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Default Re: PM Boris

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian View Post
I agree that the EU are doing a far better job of negotiating in public, primarily because, at this time, the interested parties are all singing from the same hymn sheet and are not trying to undercut one another (as the interested parties in the UK are). Time will tell if that continues right up to October 31.

I would bet that, post October 31 and no deal, life in the UK will be affected far less than you believe.
I'm not expecting huge calamities on Nov 1 or even in the weeks that follow. However 6-12 months down the line I think there will be plenty of disruption, both negative and positive. Personally, I don't like seeing Britain turning away from Europe.
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Old Aug 13th 2019, 12:57 am
  #163  
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Default Re: PM Boris

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian View Post
Well, to be fair, Boris inherited the current position.

I wasn't referring to the current position but to the fact that the EU was the party that determined that, "...this cannot happen, until this happens..." none of which was based in law at all. From what I have seen, they have refused to discuss a trade agreement until the items they wanted to get resolved, were resolved, which, to me, appears to contradict the statement you made that I highlighted above.
Perhaps because if history or because some of the 27 are very small countries, Britain believes it calls all the shots. What it has not learned after all these years is that the EU as a group has far more negotiating power and has a huge motive for internal cohesion. It threatens to withhold international funding obligations (pathetic) despite the fact that such action would torpedo its trade interests and are unlikely to be deemed legal. Britain will need to get used to it's diminished influence once it Brexits. It will become a Canada or Australia on the world stage: relevant, smart, but not particularly powerful. The EU on the other hand...
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Old Aug 13th 2019, 5:07 am
  #164  
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Default Re: PM Boris

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
It will become a Canada or Australia on the world stage: relevant, smart, but not particularly powerful. The EU on the other hand...
Well that'll be good news. No more Iraq invasions or Libyan adventures or a temptation for UK politicians to pledge UK limited resources for questionable affairs. Remember Hague jumping up and down encouraging recognition of the Syrian thuggish opposition still in it's infancy, well that turned out well.
Ahh... I hear you say, the UK will have diminished influence and I say that will be a good thing.
Let the EU form their federal forces and park them where the UK used to park theirs, no doubt they'll cause as much trouble as the UK did.
Mao had it right when he described the UK as a paper tiger, the trouble is that nobody in the UK listened to him.

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Old Aug 13th 2019, 12:09 pm
  #165  
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Default Re: PM Boris

Originally Posted by dave_j View Post
Well that'll be good news. No more Iraq invasions or Libyan adventures or a temptation for UK politicians to pledge UK limited resources for questionable affairs....
Why would that be? How would not being part of the EU interfere with the UK's doing the USA's bidding special relationship?

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