Danny B

This chap is a bit more optimistic


Dr Mike Tildesley, from the University of Warwick and a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modelling group (Spi-M), has been discussing his hopes that by the end of the year the UK would have a "flu-type" relationship with COVID-19.

"Say we get into a situation where the virus becomes very, very mild and we are living alongside it - we're not there yet, but hopefully we will be at some point this year - then we do need to talk about not just cases but also hospital admissions and the number of people who are dying with the disease," he said.

"If we can get those numbers as low as possible then hopefully we can see restrictions removed and we can live alongside the virus.



"A while ago I did say probably January is going to be a little bit rocky, if this wave starts to turn around and hopefully as we get towards the warmer weather we can start to see these restrictions removed and we can have more of a discussion about what living with COVID is going to be like and hopefully we won't see a return to restrictions as we get further through the year."

Dr Tildesley said that, generally speaking, new variants of viruses tended to be more transmissible but "also generally milder".

"So my hope is that as we get further into this year and next year, we are dealing with milder versions of COVID and hopefully we have more of a flu-type relationship with COVID where potentially we protect the vulnerable as we get into the colder weather, but we don't see a return of restrictions," he said.

printer

Yes isn't it all about how the media are treating this. You have the media sources that will use the "doom and gloom" professors or modelling experts to tell us all its far from over and masks will be with us till 2030 and then other media outlets quoting some other "expert" in his/her field who is much more hopeful about the next few weeks and disputes some of the more radical modelling
Every day on our local media we have the case counts and every day they say, and i quote:Case counts have become a much less useful metric in recent months, as B.C.'s testing system is at capacity.
So why are they still blindly quoting them? The other day one of the UK news outlets was quoting Nicola Sturgeon as saying whilst restrictions will be slowly lifted masks will likely be with us for years or something to that degree. In fact she had not actually said that at all, merely pointing out they may be the last restriction to be lifted.

BristolUK

My guess is if they weren't reporting figures people would be suspicious and there would soon be 'reports' of them not being high and so on.

They're giving out figures here in NB much less often for the same reasons - fewer people being tested and those that are tested the reporting of their positives is left to them to do, so many won't.

One figure that continues to be given out is record numbers in hospital and record low numbers of health staff. The symptoms might be mostly milder but for those less lucky it's putting more people in hospital than the more severe versions and the daily death totals are roughly the same as those who died of covid in 2020.

Yes, as many are dying daily now as died throughout March to December 2020.

I'm not ready to embrace Omicron just yet.

printer

Is this NB specific? Because i highly doubt that is a general stat around the globe because if it were where is the pandemonium that occurred back then during those earlier days? I'm not hearing of mass lock downs and hospitals full of dying patients. UK had some serious death figures back then, not so now and England about to further reduce restrictions this week. BC talking about reaching the peak and as far as i can see deaths are not increasing to any concerning level.

Paul_Shepherd

I am not a doctor or medical expert, but from articles I have read and a range of experts I have listened to, with a dose of common sense, this is how see it too.

Recording cases is no longer of any use, recording hospitlisations and deaths is all that matters now. Covid is never going away, just like any other flu in the past has never gone away, bit there comes a point when we will need to live along side it...hopefully it will continue to mutate into an even milder variant which will allow us to do so, with the help of vaccinations, until it no longer a serious threat. I have never had the standard flu vaccine as I like to rely on and build my own immune system to be as strong as it can be.

BristolUK

Yes. But it may now include other bits of Atlantic Canada as well.
We've all had dramatic increases in figures but from very low starting points so it still doesn't look that serious compared to other places.

But from day one, the idea was to prevent hospitals and health services being overrun and as well (relatively untouched) as we've done, we are now at that point.

Shard

A good technical discussion of "endemic" and the nature of viruses here (minute 17'00 to 24'00).

Gozit

We are having the mass lockdowns and pandemonium here in Ontario.

Can't even go to the barber as removing my mask to trim my beard is verboten.

But I can cross the border into the US and do all that and more, get a free 2 hour molecular test at Walgreens and drive back across and no one will be any the wiser.

Danny B

Well if England is lifting rules in March, Canada is normally 2-3 months behind so that will hopefully mean June/July as a return to normality when cases in Canada has peaked.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...ifted-12519897

sharkus

It might be taking a little longer a walgreens these days. Appointments are hard to get from what I've been told. I know Rite Aid's PCR results are taking at least 2 - 5 days, they did used to state that was the norm, but they usually came back a lot sooner than that, but not any more. If you do not need to come back on a specific date then a free test might be ok. The usual option seems to be paying for a test, KSL Diagnostics is pretty reasonable for their 24 hour result test, and it's been known to come back a little quicker than 24 hours, it's US$150 at present, and I think it was more expensive previously. The 30 min test result one is US$220 if you have money to burn.

BristolUK

The UK got vaccines before Canada but parts of Canada wisely shut down and brought in measures in advance of the UK doing so. The UK was particularly behind in Border matters.

When you look at the way it's all been handled in the UK relative to other countries it's difficult to see it as ahead (except in death tolls and things like that) and the way the government has handled it all is really not a good example to follow.

Almost Canadian

Alberta is now offering a fourth shot. WTF?

Can't wait for annual boosters. Boosters appear to be needed far sooner than annually.

Danny B

I dunno, I like the idea of the government giving the public the option to wear a mask or not. I think that would go down well over here when we have reached the peak.

Mr Johnson said it was time to "trust the judgement" of the public on the use of masks in enclosed and crowded places, and they will be scrapped in classrooms from tomorrow.

Tirytory

Unless you’re moderately or severely immunocompromised then you or the general public are not being offered a booster.

For the immunocompromised, the fourth dose is actually the booster, three doses were considered the series.

Immunocompromised patients are often given vaccines the rest of Joe Public don’t need or receive.

Jerseygirl

Started in Ontario a few weeks ago, first those in care homes, then those with compromised immunity. I’m thinking a 4th dose will be required approx 6 months after the 3rd. Who knows about a 5th.