Coronavirus

Old Nov 13th 2020, 11:45 am
  #3121  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by BEVS View Post
It makes me think that the two do not correlate at all.

One is a new unleashed highly contagious disease which others can give you & which quick preventative measures & highlighting right here and now , right up there daily in your face, might be able to save people.

The other is a known issue (s) due to several factors, none of which are infectious.

The first needs quick reporting, highlighting and a mandate to keep on keeping on reminding people that there are quick easy steps to limit possible infection to oneself and others. It is fast spreading and so the need for this to be plastered everywhere , consistently.

The second with its risk factors has been known & publicised for many decades. Smoking. Alcohol. Overweight. Diet. Hereditary in some cases where the previous are not really a factor. Who doesn't know that smoking, drinking, diet, weight can lead to heart and circulatory issues. Everyone does even if in denial. We all know.

With this Covid19, it is hitting all ages and all people silently, invisibly and deadly. The youngest of which has been a newborn babe.

That is why the need to try and motivate people to understand what this virus can do and quickly . To keep plugging the message into deaf ears. The other message about heart disease , stroke, circulatory ldisease has been out there for many decades now and it is up to an individual if they take that on board or not. They kill themselves in that, not others.
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Old Nov 13th 2020, 12:47 pm
  #3122  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
For those that see "a bit of death" as a necessary hardship to keep the economy open, I wonder how high the deaths can be. We're at 50K in the UK, many seem untroubled by it, what about 100K? 200K, higher? Or would concern only arise when the infection level reached a point where hospitals were unable to cope? The irony is that if infection levels increased much further, the economy would collapse regardless of any government intervention. Collapse further, that is.
Are hospitals not coping a failure due to an inadequate system, or Covid itself - every year we get stories of no beds in hospitals, people left on trolleys in corridors for days- we shouldn't forget that, and shouldn't allow Covid to be the reasoning behind it - I also don't believe overwhelmed hospitals should be used as an excuse to shut the country down (not saying we should let them be overwhelmed, or that we should keep the country open, but hospitals at over capacity every winter has been a thing in the UK long before Covid) Only last year, my mother waited 2 days to get properly admitted to hospital, and a further 3 to get on a ward in the middle of summer.

My issue is and always has been we don't have true figures for anything - there's a big drive to get tested in my area, a big drive in tests is going to put case numbers up, many of which may not be active covid sufferers (people who had it in the summer showing a positive test for uptown 13 weeks etc) or simply be asymptomatic - not even going to go down the false positive route.

Death figures could be and were tweaked, current death figures are those testing positive within the 28 days preceding their death. Doesn't show co-morbidities, doesn't give an accurate cause of death. (go into hospital for a stroke, test positive or even catch covid within the hospital, then die of a UTI post stroke - your still in the Covid death totals, despite Covid having no bearing on your death. Likewise if your on palliative care approaching end of life, whether its Covid, flu, or organ failure - you are waiting for the straw to break the camels back, these deaths are still tragic, but border on unavoidable.

The flip side of this, is I believe the figures are open to manipulation down when the Government wants to save face -dropping 10k off the death tolls due to counting methods, but also restrict availability of testing in areas you want less positives, and suddenly you don't get as fair or accurate picture.

Covid is very real, and I don't think it should be ignored - but by the same token I feel the current approach is the worst of both deals - we are crippling certain sectors of the economy whilst not really slowing the spread (Families are still going shopping multiple times per week, kids are still going to school, factories are still going etc). All whilst Amazon makes billions.

Last edited by Stumpylegs; Nov 13th 2020 at 1:02 pm. Reason: wanted to make sure it was clear I'm not a Covid denier, i just distrust the accuracy of data around this pandemic
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Old Nov 13th 2020, 12:55 pm
  #3123  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by BEVS View Post
To keep plugging the message into deaf ears.
Sometimes the ears aren't deaf, they're just sitting on the head of someone who wants to get on a plane and fly somewhere. Nothing else matters.

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
Heart disease is not infectious. Why do people not understand the concept of a virus ??
Someone will be along shortly to say X number of people are killed by cars and we don't stop driving. Haven't heard that one for a while.
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Old Nov 13th 2020, 1:13 pm
  #3124  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Siouxie View Post
https://www.bhf.org.uk/what-we-do/ne...ts-and-figures
https://www.healthawareness.co.uk/ca...ses-the-facts/
- there's also a pdf if you want to download it - www.bhf.org.uk › research › bhf-cvd-statistics-uk-factsheet


Those figures used to be far worse - thank goodness our knowledge is far more advanced than it was (and there are now treatments available..)
Originally Posted by printer View Post
Thanks beat me to it.
Unfortunately it's not either of those articles. As you've quoted an article directly, you should link to source printer.

Edit - just downloaded the pdf, and that would be the source.

Last edited by old.sparkles; Nov 13th 2020 at 1:23 pm.
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Old Nov 13th 2020, 1:26 pm
  #3125  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Stumpylegs View Post
Are hospitals not coping a failure due to an inadequate system, or Covid itself - every year we get stories of no beds in hospitals, people left on trolleys in corridors for days- we shouldn't forget that, and shouldn't allow Covid to be the reasoning behind it - I also don't believe overwhelmed hospitals should be used as an excuse to shut the country down (not saying we should let them be overwhelmed, or that we should keep the country open, but hospitals at over capacity every winter has been a thing in the UK long before Covid) Only last year, my mother waited 2 days to get properly admitted to hospital, and a further 3 to get on a ward in the middle of summer.

My issue is and always has been we don't have true figures for anything - there's a big drive to get tested in my area, a big drive in tests is going to put case numbers up, many of which may not be active covid sufferers (people who had it in the summer showing a positive test for uptown 13 weeks etc) or simply be asymptomatic - not even going to go down the false positive route.

Death figures could be and were tweaked, current death figures are those testing positive within the 28 days preceding their death. Doesn't show co-morbidities, doesn't give an accurate cause of death. (go into hospital for a stroke, test positive or even catch covid within the hospital, then die of a UTI post stroke - your still in the Covid death totals, despite Covid having no bearing on your death. Likewise if your on palliative care approaching end of life, whether its Covid, flu, or organ failure - you are waiting for the straw to break the camels back, these deaths are still tragic, but border on unavoidable.

The flip side of this, is I believe the figures are open to manipulation down when the Government wants to save face -dropping 10k off the death tolls due to counting methods, but also restrict availability of testing in areas you want less positives, and suddenly you don't get as fair or accurate picture.

Covid is very real, and I don't think it should be ignored - but by the same token I feel the current approach is the worst of both deals - we are crippling certain sectors of the economy whilst not really slowing the spread (Families are still going shopping multiple times per week, kids are still going to school, factories are still going etc). All whilst Amazon makes billions.
Definitely a lack of transparency on figures. NHS does have capacity limits, equipment and, especially staff. It would be helpful for those to be spelt out, and then the potential hospitalization projections depending on different scenarios. Compare for example: a) minimal measures ("August") b) partial lockdown ("November") and c) full lockdown ("April"). The mortality rates are bei f projected, and are being considered against the economic impact (again, projected)...it's just that none of this information is being shared.
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Old Nov 13th 2020, 1:36 pm
  #3126  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Stumpylegs View Post
Are hospitals not coping a failure due to an inadequate system, or Covid itself - every year we get stories of no beds in hospitals, people left on trolleys in corridors for days- we shouldn't forget that, and shouldn't allow Covid to be the reasoning behind it .
Not even if it is?

It's hard to judge not having lived there for 16 years but the no beds and people in corridors were always isolated incidents dotted around. Perhaps that was preferable to the cancelling of many procedures which are common now.

Just the other day there was something about five million fewer hip/knee replacements and cataract removals up to August. Just imagine the number of people in corridors had they gone ahead
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Old Nov 13th 2020, 4:48 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by BristolUK View Post
Not even if it is?

It's hard to judge not having lived there for 16 years but the no beds and people in corridors were always isolated incidents dotted around. Perhaps that was preferable to the cancelling of many procedures which are common now.

Just the other day there was something about five million fewer hip/knee replacements and cataract removals up to August. Just imagine the number of people in corridors had they gone ahead
I heard the term "prevention paradox" the other day. This is the paradox that preventing a disaster ends up confirming the suspicions of doubters that the possibility of disaster has been exaggerated.
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Old Nov 13th 2020, 5:39 pm
  #3128  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by BristolUK View Post
Not even if it is?

It's hard to judge not having lived there for 16 years but the no beds and people in corridors were always isolated incidents dotted around. Perhaps that was preferable to the cancelling of many procedures which are common now.

Just the other day there was something about five million fewer hip/knee replacements and cataract removals up to August. Just imagine the number of people in corridors had they gone ahead
If it is the reason it should be - But I feel that the NHS has been underfunded(and overcharged) for many years and every winter has been barely scraping through, cancelling operations etc. (realise more would have been cancelled this year, as they need to keep additional spare capacity). Im sure i read of a report showed that something like 95% of NHS trusts were having to bring in and use additional beds above standard hospital capacity in the month of March 2019, and whilst the numbers dropped through the spring, the vast majority of trusts were using extra beds and temporary nurses for several months. So for the government to blame it being at near capacity this year because of covid seems like stretching the truth to me, they are always at near capacity or even over capacity due to not enough funding and awarding contracts to mates of MP's that then inflate prices by 500%.

Its no different to the government blaming yesterdays spike on everyone going the pub on the night it had to close - whilst it may have caused the spike, any one with half a brain could see that was going to happen - so why allow a 10pm curfew and not bring in a couple of restrictions through the week (I.E no drinks only tables after the Sunday night, no walk in meals after 8pm Tuesday, restaurants can stay open until 8pm Thursday to honour already booked meals)

I have no issue with lock down itself, I personally think the boundaries need changing but realise that wherever you set the laws and the limits there will be some ridiculous oddity within them (you can work refitting a flat with your colleague all day, drive back to your hotel in the same works van but then have to eat on separate tables in the pub in the evening and have separate rooms), but the current approach of keeping factories open, schools open, allowing shops that sell largely tat to stay open etc. is flawed in my opinion as it isn't slowing the spread as quick as it could be, but is crippling businesses. At the end of my road every day there must be 100 cars picking kids up from school, all out of the cars talking, kids running round playing etc. is just a breeding ground for the virus - but this is just extending the lockdown for those businesses that have had to shut.

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Old Nov 13th 2020, 5:59 pm
  #3129  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Stumpylegs View Post
Its no different to the government blaming yesterdays spike on everyone going the pub on the night it had to close - whilst it may have caused the spike, any one with half a brain could see that was going to happen - so why allow a 10pm curfew and not bring in a couple of restrictions through the week (I.E no drinks only tables after the Sunday night, no walk in meals after 8pm Tuesday, restaurants can stay open until 8pm Thursday to honour already booked meals)

I have no issue with lock down itself, I personally think the boundaries need changing but realise that wherever you set the laws and the limits there will be some ridiculous oddity within them (you can work refitting a flat with your colleague all day, drive back to your hotel in the same works van but then have to eat on separate tables in the pub in the evening and have separate rooms), but the current approach of keeping factories open, schools open, allowing shops that sell largely tat to stay open etc. is flawed in my opinion as it isn't slowing the spread as quick as it could be, but is crippling businesses. At the end of my road every day there must be 100 cars picking kids up from school, all out of the cars talking, kids running round playing etc. is just a breeding ground for the virus - but this is just extending the lockdown for those businesses that have had to shut.
There's no perfect solution. Pub times could probably have been designed better. Much of the restrcitions are aimed at reducing viral load that build up in individuals. So yes, parents chatting at the school gate is inappropriate, but it's better than the same parents having various meet-ups throughout the day. Separate tables reduces the dining capacity of the venue, and also makes transmission between the two individuals less likely when not wearing masks. As Tesco likes to say, Every Little Helps...(to reduce the R number).



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Old Nov 13th 2020, 6:37 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Stumpylegs View Post
If it is the reason it should be - But I feel that the NHS has been underfunded(and overcharged) for many years and every winter has been barely scraping through, cancelling operations etc. (.
I don't disagree with anything you said there. I just get an impression that the problems are a little more present now than pre-covid and if all those operations that would otherwise have gone ahead rather than cancelled, the true picture really would have been seen.
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Old Nov 14th 2020, 2:34 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by old.sparkles View Post
Unfortunately it's not either of those articles. As you've quoted an article directly, you should link to source printer.

Edit - just downloaded the pdf, and that would be the source.
The source was linked and you found it?????
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Old Nov 14th 2020, 2:45 am
  #3132  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Hospitalizations are up 60% in BC since last Thursday.

Hopefully the restrictions in the LM will slow it down a bit.

Not as bad in the interior but still growing. I wonder how many COVID patients Kelowna hospital can handle, so far they only have 1 which is good.

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Old Nov 14th 2020, 2:52 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
Heart disease is not infectious. Why do people not understand the concept of a virus ??
I was simply replying to your statement:
For those that see "a bit of death" as a necessary hardship to keep the economy open, I wonder how high the deaths can be. We're at 50K in the UK, many seem untroubled by it
Obviously many are also untroubled by other high death counts, such as the one i highlighted. It's not infectious but it is, for most, preventable yet we seem to struggle to do just that yet the population as a whole accepts this fact. Smoking is a well known problem with serious health issues and massive costs to NHS treating all the various diseases that go with it and again huge death tolls due to lung cancer and other issues that are again to some extent preventable. Both of the above may not be infectious but if you are in one of the above groups your chances of surviving COVID are not as good as a healthy person.
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Old Nov 14th 2020, 4:05 am
  #3134  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Just mentioned on the news, when the pandemic was declared 8 months ago in March, it was on the last Friday 13th.
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Old Nov 14th 2020, 11:45 am
  #3135  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by printer View Post
The source was linked and you found it?????
Well yes, but I didn't click it initially since you have to download the file to view it and not something I'm keen to do often.

I always check links to pdf's before I post them and would never post a link to a pdf that is dodgy.. just to put your mind at ease..

Last edited by Siouxie; Nov 14th 2020 at 5:39 pm.
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