Raffin

Omicron: SA vs Philippines


A good SA Omicron study shows the loss in protection there after 2 Pfizer jabs

But SA has only fully vaccinated only 26% of its population, Philippines 38%. Though with some regional disparity. But Boosters have started
Serious vaccine hesitancy in SA too.

Previous infection:



SA showing more cases and it has just over half the population.
The SA testing looks better. It's done 340k per M against Philippines 222k.
But on balance on previous infection SA looks to have an "advantage".

So maybe these two opposing factors about the same.

SA has a relatively young population but with a bulge in the middle age:



Look back in this thread to post # 1195 to compare with the Philippines. An even younger population. Bulging in the younger ages.
So looking at immunity the Philippines has the advantage there.

Also probably an advantage in conforming to protocols.

Despite its higher covid deaths per M SA health services have been equally ranked with the Philippines by a Lancet index, both countries at 119th place in the world:

https://businesstech.co.za/news/life...-vs-the-world/

So if SA can cope with Omicron so can the Philippines

Add to that the Philippines Omicron wave will likely start some weeks into 2022. Time to prepare, learn from other countries.

Bealinehx

"learn from other countries." Let us all hope for that. But. Next year is election time and the silly season will start. Great displays of self righteousness, ego tripping, entitlement, pomposity and in some cases outright stupidity.The list is endless.
Let the professional be in charge and do not copy the UK. I see that Mr Bumble has just had his backside well and truly kicked, with the N Salop by-election result.

Raffin

We have to wait until January to have the final list of 2022 Presidential candidates. With Duterte Carpio and Go both out it's not clear who the Admin candidate will be. Maybe whoever the current President comes out for. Unlike the UK pandemic response is unlikely to be an issue as generally elections here are all about personalities, supporting clans, dynasties. But maybe if severe restrictions were re-imposed it might influence the vote.

Raffin

Today 582 new cases announced. Included a large backlog of 246. Only 1 lab late to submit. Positive 1.0% of 30.4k tests. Tests coming along 33.6k.

Recoveries 494

Deaths 74, 59 RDs

Active 10.167

Severe 1,867, down 81. Critical 391, down 8

NCR ICU 24%, up 1%. National 22%, unchanged

Raffin

Today there were 291 more cases announced with 29 held over and 3 labs late to submit. Positivity at a record low of 0.9% from 35.5k tests, 33.8k in preparation.

Recoveries 523

Deaths 106, 97 RDs

Active 9,924

Severe 1,799, down 16. Critical 382
Incorrect figures given yesterday.

NCR ICU 24%, National 22%. Both unchanged.

Weekly update tomorrow.

Raffin

Weekly update:

For the country as a whole using the cumulative totals there was an addition of 1,195 cases over the past week. Compared to 2,066 for the previous week.

But....

below I give the latest regional weekly additional numbers. Calculated from daily, not cumulative, figures.
I will explain the reason for the change in calculation method below:

NCR 597
4A 293
WV 200
CL 185
CV 151
IL 138
MIM 112
Cag 105
Dav 96
Zam 90
NM 80
SOCCSK 80
Cga 69
CAR 64
EV 43
BARMM 40
Bic 39

Total 2,382

Compared to the cumulative number 1,187 more. So DOH adjustments have significantly reduced the cumulative case addition. Previously I thought these adjustments were small but they're obviously not and from past examples of DOH practice may well involve cases from many weeks or even months ago.

So to be more up to date with case numbers I need in future to calculate using daily not cumulative numbers.
To avoid this sort of thing:

In the NCR the QC cumulative case number for Dec 18 was 177,250. For Dec 11 177,258.
Laguna province Dec 18 124,472, Dec 11 124,477

There are a number of other examples like that and there must be many other cases where adjustments have less obviously misled the size of the weekly addition. So today I won't continue with showing other weekly changes, since they are all based on cumulative numbers and could be misleading.

Since noting down daily figures for all these areas would take a lot more time I will confine my weekly reports in future to all regions, some of the larger provinces around the NCR and a few of the larger NCR and provincial cities.

On the case situation this week I can't say anything much due to the change in calculation. Also case numbers towards the end of the week were likely reduced somewhat in the VisMin typhoon affected areas. Some additional infections will probably be generated by people being displaced. They will show up next week.



Dr John reports the latest Omicron symptoms from the ZOE app in the UK. The SA list is similar, except there body aches are more prominent.

Here the DOH show this on their website:


As with the NHS the DOH here showing a very much out of date symptom guide, not very relevant for the Delta variant, with incorrect emphasis on fever and cough.

Raffin

Yesterday 203 new cases announced but 28 cases were held over and a large number of labs were late to submit on Dec 17 due to Typhoon Odette, 41 in total. Positives 0.8% from 28.8k tests, 25.7k in preparation.

Recoveries 395

Deaths 64, 62 RDs.
Only 2 from this month,18 Nov, 29 Oct,10 Sep,4 Aug, 1 Apr

Active 9,729

Severe 1,800, up 1. Critical 380, down 2

NCR ICU 23%, down 1%. National 22%, unchanged.

Raffin

Today 263 new cases, 35 held over and 13 labs late to submit. Past experience suggests they would have added about 10 cases. Positives 0.8% from 28.4k tests. Tests in preparation 25.7k.

Recoveries 390

Deaths 45, 35 RDs.
9 from Dec, 1 Nov, 17 Oct
The remaining 18 go back to March 2020!

Active 9,592

Severe 1,797, down 3. Critical 378, down 2

NCR ICU 22%, down 1%. National 21%, down 1%

Some local spikes of new cases being monitored by the DOH:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/20/...covid-19-cases

Thought this was interesting:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59639973

The BBC explaining what boosters contribute to immunity using an education analogy.

Raffin

Today the effects of Typhoon Odette restricted new cases down to 168. Held over were 39 positive results. Twenty labs were late making another 8 or so cases which were missed. Tests done were 23k, a similar number are in preparation.

Recoveries 372

Deaths 10, 6 RDs
Again typhoon restricted.

Active 9,384

Severe 1,804. up 7. Critical 377, down 1

NCR ICU 22%. National 21% Both unchanged.

Raffin

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...story/?just_in

As expected. The UK shortened the interval last month.
The US seems to be staying at 6 months, for now. Earlier this year they had it at 8 months.

Presumably the 6 month interval had some science behind it so as we are never exposed I'm not going to rush to get it at 3 months

Raffin

Today 261 new cases, 12 labs late to submit, 5 cases held over. The late labs would likely tp have added only about 5 more positives. Positivity 0.9% out of 29.6k tested individuals. About the same number of tests coming along.

Recoveries 395

Deaths 122, 113 of them RDs.
15 in Dec, 17 Nov, 39 Oct, 27 Sep and the rest, 24, before that back to April 2020.

Active 9,238

Severe 1,801, down 3. Critical 377, unchanged.
Notable only small changes last four days.

NCR ICU 21%, down 1%. National 20%, down 1%

Raffin

There were 288 cases declared today but 65 positives were not and held over. As well as that 11 labs were late to submit. They would likely have added about 10 more cases. Positivity a little higher at 1.1% from 32.1k tests. A similar number of tests in preparation.

Recoveries 270

Deaths 65, 60 RDs

Active 9,251

Severe 1,797, down 4. Critical 377, unchanged.

NCR ICU 20%, down 1%. National 19%, down 1%.

Gazza-d

I see the UK went through the 100k case in a day yesterday.

Bealinehx

"I see the UK went through the 100k case in a day yesterday."
Don't worry omicron will be here in the New year.
On a serious note when compared to France and Germany the number of series/critical cases are very low.
Keep safe everyone during the festive season as there is evidence of complacency creeping in.

Raffin

We need to be careful with the hospital statistics here. They're only for what the DOH call "primary" facilities.

This is a chart developed by ABS-CBN one year ago from data given to a Senate inquiry showing then that most people who died from covid here did not die in, presumably, a primary hospital and that the majority of critical patients by then were also not
in a hospital.


I would suggest this situation is unlikely to have changed much over the past year. I believe the large number of "recovery deaths". usually the majority of deaths reported each day, are showing that.