NCR llockdown
May 26th 2023, 1:26 am
#2042
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Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 2,352
Re: NCR llockdown
Just hope the official numbers are a good proxy for movements in the true. Though I would guess rapid home tests are not so readily available here as in the UK.
Last edited by Raffin; May 26th 2023 at 1:39 am.
May 30th 2023, 12:57 am
#2043
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Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 2,352
Re: NCR llockdown
Weekly Report
New cases from the DOH: 11,667 (12,426). A 6% fall (0%).
Latest weekly DOH national positivity down a little to 18.8%.
Latest OCTA positivity report in NCR and elsewhere saying a fall in the NCR but elsewhere still some high figures:
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/other...ta/ar-AA1bPuIs
Latest last 14 days infections % change:
NCR -17 (+4)
4A -4 (+12)
CL +13 (+11)
WV +15 (+23)
Bic -1 (+16)
Except for one region new infection either decreasing or increasing at a lower rate.
Active cases now at 16,002.
Active cases over the past year.
No deaths reported.
Hospital Report
New Severe and Critical 105 (87)
Admitted 564 (486)
ICU 21.8% (18.2%)
Non ICU 23.2% (23.0$)
A marked deterioration over last week.. Especially a 3.6% increase in ICU use. Omicron can still require the ICU. It is mainly characterized by viral replication in the upper respiratory tract but that still can need intensive care.
Percentage of Health Care facilities at moderate or severe risk:
National 9 (8)
NCR 16 (14)
4A 18 (18)
CL 4 (4)
CV 18 (13)
Davao 10 (9)
A slight deterioration nationwide.
Many did not find one but just the one paper linking blindness with mRNA vaccines was given some exposure recently.....
....but the data it used found to be fatally flawed in terms of bias by Dr Susan Oliver.
More misinformation from Dr John Campbell today. Getting over excited by what he says is a WHO publication linking MS to covid vaccines. But it wasn't published by the WHO, just on their publication database. As he thinks it proves a link he keeps saying it is from the WHO, an organisation he is usually very critical of..Rather it's from an MS journal, not peer reviewed and was fact checked by the WHO as"limited" and further research needed. The WHO say on their database that the papers there are not to be taken as approved by them. Amazingly he actually gives a link to the AP report on the fact checking of the research in question..But doesn't say much about it other than to make his usual complaints about fact checkers.. Presumably thinking that few of his followers will look.
The latest top Asian new cases yesterday. on Worldometers.
Japan stopped reporting there 3 weeks ago.
But its latest health ministry report on May 21 said cases
were at 1.3x the previous week's and that was the 7th week
in a row cases had increased.
S Korea didn't report yesterday but had 17.5k on the 27th, 19k on the 25th.
.
.
New cases from the DOH: 11,667 (12,426). A 6% fall (0%).
Latest weekly DOH national positivity down a little to 18.8%.
Latest OCTA positivity report in NCR and elsewhere saying a fall in the NCR but elsewhere still some high figures:
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/other...ta/ar-AA1bPuIs
Latest last 14 days infections % change:
NCR -17 (+4)
4A -4 (+12)
CL +13 (+11)
WV +15 (+23)
Bic -1 (+16)
Except for one region new infection either decreasing or increasing at a lower rate.
Active cases now at 16,002.
Active cases over the past year.
No deaths reported.
Hospital Report
New Severe and Critical 105 (87)
Admitted 564 (486)
ICU 21.8% (18.2%)
Non ICU 23.2% (23.0$)
A marked deterioration over last week.. Especially a 3.6% increase in ICU use. Omicron can still require the ICU. It is mainly characterized by viral replication in the upper respiratory tract but that still can need intensive care.
Percentage of Health Care facilities at moderate or severe risk:
National 9 (8)
NCR 16 (14)
4A 18 (18)
CL 4 (4)
CV 18 (13)
Davao 10 (9)
A slight deterioration nationwide.
Many did not find one but just the one paper linking blindness with mRNA vaccines was given some exposure recently.....
....but the data it used found to be fatally flawed in terms of bias by Dr Susan Oliver.
More misinformation from Dr John Campbell today. Getting over excited by what he says is a WHO publication linking MS to covid vaccines. But it wasn't published by the WHO, just on their publication database. As he thinks it proves a link he keeps saying it is from the WHO, an organisation he is usually very critical of..Rather it's from an MS journal, not peer reviewed and was fact checked by the WHO as"limited" and further research needed. The WHO say on their database that the papers there are not to be taken as approved by them. Amazingly he actually gives a link to the AP report on the fact checking of the research in question..But doesn't say much about it other than to make his usual complaints about fact checkers.. Presumably thinking that few of his followers will look.
The latest top Asian new cases yesterday. on Worldometers.
Japan stopped reporting there 3 weeks ago.
But its latest health ministry report on May 21 said cases
were at 1.3x the previous week's and that was the 7th week
in a row cases had increased.
S Korea didn't report yesterday but had 17.5k on the 27th, 19k on the 25th.
.
.
Jun 5th 2023, 11:00 pm
#2044
BE Forum Addict
Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 2,352
Re: NCR llockdown
Weekly Report
Cases 9,109 (12,426). A fall of 22% (6%).
Last 14 days percentage change in infections by region
NCR -25 (-17)
4A -20 (-4)
CL +6 (+13)
WV -6 (+15)
Bic -3 (-1)
The small wave seems to be on the decline.
Deaths 10.
3 were in May.
Hospital Data
New admissions 77 (105)
Admitted 559 (554)
ICU 18.9% (21.8%)
Non ICU 20.0% (23.2%)
Occupancy: % of facilities at moderate risk or higher
National 10 (9)
NCR 17 (16)
4A 18 (18)
CL 3 (4)
CV 11 (18)
Dav 9 (10)
Some regional improvements.
New Health Secretary appointed.... after a year!
He served as an adviser to the previous President in the IATF:
https://www.rappler.com/nation/who-i...lth-secretary/
390k bivalent boosters arrived from Lithuania over the weekend.
For healthcare workers and seniors at first:
https://mb.com.ph/2023/6/4/ph-receiv...nian-gov-t-doh
Doubts have also been raised at whether they will be a fgood it to the Omicron variants here:
XBB from BA.2. In region 6 less than a third not.The bivalent booster works best against BA.4 and 5.
:
Why Lithuania can now donate. Boosters per 100 for Lithuania (Blue) and Philippines (Red).
Dr Susan Oliver slams Campbell's video last week on MS and covid vaccination. At the time it looked ridiculous and she looks at papers which prove that it is covid infection rather than vaccination which does have a link with MS.
Auto -immunity associated with covid much more than the vaccine, which was less than in the control group.
Last an article from the ABS-CBN site which pushes back against the idea that the WHO will be in control of national pandemic responses in the future:
https://news.abs-cbn.com/spotlight/0...ockdown-powers
Cases 9,109 (12,426). A fall of 22% (6%).
Last 14 days percentage change in infections by region
NCR -25 (-17)
4A -20 (-4)
CL +6 (+13)
WV -6 (+15)
Bic -3 (-1)
The small wave seems to be on the decline.
Deaths 10.
3 were in May.
Hospital Data
New admissions 77 (105)
Admitted 559 (554)
ICU 18.9% (21.8%)
Non ICU 20.0% (23.2%)
Occupancy: % of facilities at moderate risk or higher
National 10 (9)
NCR 17 (16)
4A 18 (18)
CL 3 (4)
CV 11 (18)
Dav 9 (10)
Some regional improvements.
New Health Secretary appointed.... after a year!
He served as an adviser to the previous President in the IATF:
https://www.rappler.com/nation/who-i...lth-secretary/
390k bivalent boosters arrived from Lithuania over the weekend.
For healthcare workers and seniors at first:
https://mb.com.ph/2023/6/4/ph-receiv...nian-gov-t-doh
Doubts have also been raised at whether they will be a fgood it to the Omicron variants here:
XBB from BA.2. In region 6 less than a third not.The bivalent booster works best against BA.4 and 5.
:
Why Lithuania can now donate. Boosters per 100 for Lithuania (Blue) and Philippines (Red).
Dr Susan Oliver slams Campbell's video last week on MS and covid vaccination. At the time it looked ridiculous and she looks at papers which prove that it is covid infection rather than vaccination which does have a link with MS.
Auto -immunity associated with covid much more than the vaccine, which was less than in the control group.
Last an article from the ABS-CBN site which pushes back against the idea that the WHO will be in control of national pandemic responses in the future:
https://news.abs-cbn.com/spotlight/0...ockdown-powers
Jun 12th 2023, 10:18 pm
#2045
BE Forum Addict
Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 2,352
Re: NCR llockdown
Weekly Report
New cases 6,630 (9,107). Fall of 27% (22%).
Latest OCTA positvity report shows falls in the NCR but not everywhere nationwide:
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...ta/ar-AA1cqUrn
Last 14 days infections % changes by top regions:
NCR -33% (-25%)
4A -33% (-20%0
CL -16% (+6%)
WV -15% (-6%)
Deaths 5
4 in May
1 in March.
Hospital Data
New admissions 112 (77)
Admitted 527 (559)
ICU 17.7% (18.9%)
Non ICU 19.5% (23.0%)
Percentage of facilities in selected regions seen as moderate risk:
National 8 (10)
NCR 13 (17)
4A 16 (18)
CL 4 (3)
CV 12 (11)
Dav 7 (9)
Big increase in new admissions but facilities seem to be coping.
The outbreak is on the way down so the hospital situation should be able to cope.
Putting this data up now.
A number of covid news items coming later
New cases 6,630 (9,107). Fall of 27% (22%).
Latest OCTA positvity report shows falls in the NCR but not everywhere nationwide:
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...ta/ar-AA1cqUrn
Last 14 days infections % changes by top regions:
NCR -33% (-25%)
4A -33% (-20%0
CL -16% (+6%)
WV -15% (-6%)
Deaths 5
4 in May
1 in March.
Hospital Data
New admissions 112 (77)
Admitted 527 (559)
ICU 17.7% (18.9%)
Non ICU 19.5% (23.0%)
Percentage of facilities in selected regions seen as moderate risk:
National 8 (10)
NCR 13 (17)
4A 16 (18)
CL 4 (3)
CV 12 (11)
Dav 7 (9)
Big increase in new admissions but facilities seem to be coping.
The outbreak is on the way down so the hospital situation should be able to cope.
Putting this data up now.
A number of covid news items coming later
Jun 13th 2023, 4:38 am
#2046
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Feb 2014
Location: Marikina Philippines
Posts: 885
Re: NCR llockdown
You have to wonder why there is so much fuss about booster vaccinations when they are only effective for about six months. So all those people fully vaccinated with two, three and four jabs are now not protected.
Looking at the Worldometer for yesterday the data for Philippines shows 10761 total cases of which 162 are critical and 727 reported new cases. For a country with a population of almost 110 million the continuing paranoia seem out of proportion particularly when Mt Mayon is making hay in Bicol.
Looking at the Worldometer for yesterday the data for Philippines shows 10761 total cases of which 162 are critical and 727 reported new cases. For a country with a population of almost 110 million the continuing paranoia seem out of proportion particularly when Mt Mayon is making hay in Bicol.
Jun 14th 2023, 12:02 am
#2047
BE Forum Addict
Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 2,352
Re: NCR llockdown
Covid related updates on the Philippines, latest You tube activity and the UK:
Bivalent boosters are out....mostly to the NCR...Seniors and Health Care workers:
https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1203463
Latest OCTA positivity report:
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...cid=BingHPCTop
SS highly suspicious about "death spikes" in Central Luzon cases in a newsletter posted on June 8:
Death spikes on the first day of every month in 2021, and at two week intervals. Just how they recorded deaths there or, as SS suggests, vaccine related? The other thing of note mentioned by her is the very high rate of Excess Deaths in the small province of Zambales, 75% against 43% for the nation in 2021.
https://supersally.substack.com/
Dr John Campbell presented an updated report on Pandemic controls from the right wing think tank the IEA. That's the Institute of Economic Affairs. They've been around a long time but recently came to notice as one source of the disastrous economic policies applied during the premiership of Liz Truss and the Chancellorship of Kwasi Kwarteng.
Originally out over a year ago from Johns Hopkins, but an online paper disowned by them. At the time,January 2022, he did a video on it. This is really the same work updated and purely economic...not including any epidemiological analysis, Especially of the economic costs without lock down. Not peer reviewed and criticised by many for its analysis.
Lock down will be a major topic in the UK Covid Public Enquiry (see at the end about that) and hopefully better work will be presented there.
He has also been busy with the daily Telegraph and the UKs Counter Disinformation Unit:
The last of 3 videos on the UKs CDU. Which despite what he said about it being secret has been known about for 3 years in Parliament. Though moved to be under a different ministry..We can debate if it is reasonable that the government is able to monitor and sometimes try to restrict the most extreme forms of disinformation. On some of his videos people comment that they have started to worry that they might get a serious disease, like MS, from covid vaccinations 2 years ago. Comments on his latest video contain one from someone who thinks a turn for the worse in their liver disease could be related to past covid vaccination.
Excess Deaths:
Dr John Campbell resuming on this topic after a break:
He started his first video with his concern they were increasing. Then showed 12 country's data, which to me look to be going down gradually. He seemed to get away with that, judging from comments. As usual he hints at vaccines being a big, if not the main or only, reason for the deaths. His followers in the comments lap it all up.
Of course we're not dealing with a simple number. It's a comparative statistic and although the statisticians try to estimate what was to be expected they are limited in what and how much they can do to present a fair comparison for reasons of transparency. Eg the ONS left one year out of their 5 year average as it was unduly affected by covid deaths.
UK excess death data:
High in 2020.
...then high again in 2022. Then for this year the weekly data trending down but quite volatile in April and May...28 April 12.9%, 5 May 5.4%, 12 May 2.5%, 19 May 11.7%. 26 May 9.4% and the latest estimate 11.3%. It should be noted that May had 3 bank Holidays this year and that may be something to do with it.
Dr Campbell leads his latest video on excess deaths in the young...although the data goes up to age 24!!! As you can see in past years there have been significant periods below zero. Yes, a concerning rise in 2023 so far.
UK Public Enquiry into covid:
Will they look into Excess Deaths? Or will the lawyers dominate so we don't get into statistical areas that much?
For regular reports the BBC online news is doing a live report.
This is their report on the first day's proceedings:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-65888152
Bivalent boosters are out....mostly to the NCR...Seniors and Health Care workers:
https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1203463
Latest OCTA positivity report:
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...cid=BingHPCTop
SS highly suspicious about "death spikes" in Central Luzon cases in a newsletter posted on June 8:
Death spikes on the first day of every month in 2021, and at two week intervals. Just how they recorded deaths there or, as SS suggests, vaccine related? The other thing of note mentioned by her is the very high rate of Excess Deaths in the small province of Zambales, 75% against 43% for the nation in 2021.
https://supersally.substack.com/
Dr John Campbell presented an updated report on Pandemic controls from the right wing think tank the IEA. That's the Institute of Economic Affairs. They've been around a long time but recently came to notice as one source of the disastrous economic policies applied during the premiership of Liz Truss and the Chancellorship of Kwasi Kwarteng.
Originally out over a year ago from Johns Hopkins, but an online paper disowned by them. At the time,January 2022, he did a video on it. This is really the same work updated and purely economic...not including any epidemiological analysis, Especially of the economic costs without lock down. Not peer reviewed and criticised by many for its analysis.
Lock down will be a major topic in the UK Covid Public Enquiry (see at the end about that) and hopefully better work will be presented there.
He has also been busy with the daily Telegraph and the UKs Counter Disinformation Unit:
The last of 3 videos on the UKs CDU. Which despite what he said about it being secret has been known about for 3 years in Parliament. Though moved to be under a different ministry..We can debate if it is reasonable that the government is able to monitor and sometimes try to restrict the most extreme forms of disinformation. On some of his videos people comment that they have started to worry that they might get a serious disease, like MS, from covid vaccinations 2 years ago. Comments on his latest video contain one from someone who thinks a turn for the worse in their liver disease could be related to past covid vaccination.
Excess Deaths:
Dr John Campbell resuming on this topic after a break:
He started his first video with his concern they were increasing. Then showed 12 country's data, which to me look to be going down gradually. He seemed to get away with that, judging from comments. As usual he hints at vaccines being a big, if not the main or only, reason for the deaths. His followers in the comments lap it all up.
Of course we're not dealing with a simple number. It's a comparative statistic and although the statisticians try to estimate what was to be expected they are limited in what and how much they can do to present a fair comparison for reasons of transparency. Eg the ONS left one year out of their 5 year average as it was unduly affected by covid deaths.
UK excess death data:
High in 2020.
...then high again in 2022. Then for this year the weekly data trending down but quite volatile in April and May...28 April 12.9%, 5 May 5.4%, 12 May 2.5%, 19 May 11.7%. 26 May 9.4% and the latest estimate 11.3%. It should be noted that May had 3 bank Holidays this year and that may be something to do with it.
Dr Campbell leads his latest video on excess deaths in the young...although the data goes up to age 24!!! As you can see in past years there have been significant periods below zero. Yes, a concerning rise in 2023 so far.
UK Public Enquiry into covid:
Will they look into Excess Deaths? Or will the lawyers dominate so we don't get into statistical areas that much?
For regular reports the BBC online news is doing a live report.
This is their report on the first day's proceedings:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-65888152
Jun 20th 2023, 10:14 pm
#2048
BE Forum Addict
Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 2,352
Re: NCR llockdown
Weekly Report
Cases down again significantly last week:
4,281 (6,630) A 35% fall (-27%).
Last 14 days infections down significantly too in all the top 5 case regions.
The latest UK ZOE estimates:
The Philippines a falling trend with ups and downs as in the UK. Though with
much lower prevalence.
The latest OCTA positivity report:
https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/...w-risk-ph.html
Deaths 1. From May 2023.
Active:cases 8,659
Active cases since 2022.
Hospital Report
New serious cases: 57 (112)
Admitted 477 (527)
ICU 16.6% (17.7%)
Non ICU 19.5% (19,5%)
Interestingly The Philippines top for new cases for June 19 and recently near the top every day before that...726, 693,719,528. Vietnam and especially Indonesia with many fewer daily cases lately.
But GMA's headline giving the wrong impression.
More covid news later.
Cases down again significantly last week:
4,281 (6,630) A 35% fall (-27%).
Last 14 days infections down significantly too in all the top 5 case regions.
The latest UK ZOE estimates:
The Philippines a falling trend with ups and downs as in the UK. Though with
much lower prevalence.
The latest OCTA positivity report:
https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/...w-risk-ph.html
Deaths 1. From May 2023.
Active:cases 8,659
Active cases since 2022.
Hospital Report
New serious cases: 57 (112)
Admitted 477 (527)
ICU 16.6% (17.7%)
Non ICU 19.5% (19,5%)
Interestingly The Philippines top for new cases for June 19 and recently near the top every day before that...726, 693,719,528. Vietnam and especially Indonesia with many fewer daily cases lately.
But GMA's headline giving the wrong impression.
More covid news later.
Jun 22nd 2023, 12:16 am
#2049
BE Forum Addict
Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 2,352
Re: NCR llockdown
Covid news update:
Dr Campbell started off 3 videos on Excess Deaths with this chart with 15 countries. Trending down, but
peaks in 2021 and early in Omicron. Notice it starts in 2021. Followed by two other videos..
...followed by a video on young excess deaths, England from
the ONS, though actually went up to 24 years.
Data from the Australian Actuaries Institute,
For Australia in 2022. Later opening up meant their excess deaths peak much later than
many other countries. After allowing for covid he highlights the 4% left.
Focuses on deaths caused by coronary artery blockage.
Excess deaths for IHD of all the causes showed a steady increase in Australia from March 2021 before starting to fall in August 2022. The report notes that it follows the peaks and troughs from covid 19 deaths.
Australian excess deaths form Our World in Data.
The Australian Actuaries Report is worth having a look at. In particular they link non covid deaths with covid and say non covid excess deaths are mostly in the two oldest age groups, both sexes. Then a good discussion of the factors likely to be involved with excess deaths:
High likelihood:
1 Post covid sequelae.
2. Interaction of covid with other diseases.
3 Delays in emergency care
Moderate
4. Delayed mortality due to earlier absence of other respiratory diseases.
5. Delays in routine care
Low
6. Undiagnosed covid.
7. Mental health
8. Pandemic induced lifestyle changes eg alcohol, drugs.
Negligible
9. Vaccine induced deaths.
The actuaries noted that vaccine roll out fell in 2022 and was inconsistent with the higher excess deaths that year.
Of course Dr Campbell mad no reference to any of this in his video, preferring to end it with an update on the German lawsuit against Pfizer (see below)
As usual Dr Oliver thoroughly rebuts the analysis in Dr John Campbell's videos on this topic.
She refers to interesting data from past Pandemics and on cardiovascular disease,. Especially good on liver disease...effect of alcohol, of some drugs used in covid treatment and from Ivermectin use...which is interesting because:
Dr Oliver used this selection of countries. Australia and NZ showing later rises in excess deaths.
But notice US, UK and other European countries had peaks in 2020 and early in 2021...well before
there could have been any significant effects from vaccine roll out.
Unlike the UK and here Germany allows legal action over claimed vaccine injury. Dr Campbell excited about the case. Seems to me to be unlikely to prosper.
Dr Campbell did a video on myocarditis after vaccine in S Korea. Seems to be a good study but it's a mass treatment giving only 0.22 persons vaccine related myocarditis for every 100,000 people!
An interesting side note: Dr Campbell made a reply to one of the many (and lately increasing numbers are crititical) commentators admonishing him for not mentioning the far greater risk of myocarditis post covid infection. One US study said 7x a Scandinavian study said 5x. He basically said that it was against the oft quoted in medicine nursing principle of "Do no harm". Derived from a simplified version of the Hippocratic Oath. But in practice it means one should treat with minimum harm to achieve the greatest beneficial outcome. The new Campbell avoiding any mention of the small risk and the benefits of vaccination. Something the old Campbell in 2021 was saying. One reply asked what about anesthesia? It causes many deaths during operations.
Campbell is not someone on You tube to watch now for expert analysis...just for the statistics and to see where he is leading his thousands of loyal followers.
UK covid Public Enquiry
Evidence from ex PM Cameron on Pandemic plans not allowing for changes due to covid being a novel virus:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-65950286
Yesterday ex Heath Secretary Hunt said, among other things, that the UK could have avoided lock down through earlier quarantining. There was a "group think" over herd immunity which meant ways to stop a pandemic earlier weren't properly considered:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-65979485
Last, what has Super Sally been saying lately?
Newsletter June 19.
https://supersally.substack.com/
Latest vaccine injury report for March: 137 new ones, 46 serious including 10 deaths. None again admitted due to vaccine.
0.002% of doses administered.
As an anti vaxxer she has taken to listing so called "unexpected deaths" lately. This time 3 community figures. One had apparently been ill and recovered. Another was of heart failure. Each time drops a hint as to what she thinks were the causes of death. When each time there isn't one stated..
A more interesting item about how the government proposes to tackle the nurse shortage here...by lowering standards!
About the new Health Secretary Herbosa.
About Mayon Volcano and the Batangas tremor !!
Her thinking about those latest activities is that it shows the power of Mother Nature. Humans should work with her, not mess with her! Of course...vaccination! But all that vaccination does is to try to teach the immune system to work better.
:
.
Dr Campbell started off 3 videos on Excess Deaths with this chart with 15 countries. Trending down, but
peaks in 2021 and early in Omicron. Notice it starts in 2021. Followed by two other videos..
...followed by a video on young excess deaths, England from
the ONS, though actually went up to 24 years.
Data from the Australian Actuaries Institute,
For Australia in 2022. Later opening up meant their excess deaths peak much later than
many other countries. After allowing for covid he highlights the 4% left.
Focuses on deaths caused by coronary artery blockage.
Excess deaths for IHD of all the causes showed a steady increase in Australia from March 2021 before starting to fall in August 2022. The report notes that it follows the peaks and troughs from covid 19 deaths.
Australian excess deaths form Our World in Data.
The Australian Actuaries Report is worth having a look at. In particular they link non covid deaths with covid and say non covid excess deaths are mostly in the two oldest age groups, both sexes. Then a good discussion of the factors likely to be involved with excess deaths:
High likelihood:
1 Post covid sequelae.
2. Interaction of covid with other diseases.
3 Delays in emergency care
Moderate
4. Delayed mortality due to earlier absence of other respiratory diseases.
5. Delays in routine care
Low
6. Undiagnosed covid.
7. Mental health
8. Pandemic induced lifestyle changes eg alcohol, drugs.
Negligible
9. Vaccine induced deaths.
The actuaries noted that vaccine roll out fell in 2022 and was inconsistent with the higher excess deaths that year.
Of course Dr Campbell mad no reference to any of this in his video, preferring to end it with an update on the German lawsuit against Pfizer (see below)
As usual Dr Oliver thoroughly rebuts the analysis in Dr John Campbell's videos on this topic.
She refers to interesting data from past Pandemics and on cardiovascular disease,. Especially good on liver disease...effect of alcohol, of some drugs used in covid treatment and from Ivermectin use...which is interesting because:
Dr Oliver used this selection of countries. Australia and NZ showing later rises in excess deaths.
But notice US, UK and other European countries had peaks in 2020 and early in 2021...well before
there could have been any significant effects from vaccine roll out.
Unlike the UK and here Germany allows legal action over claimed vaccine injury. Dr Campbell excited about the case. Seems to me to be unlikely to prosper.
Dr Campbell did a video on myocarditis after vaccine in S Korea. Seems to be a good study but it's a mass treatment giving only 0.22 persons vaccine related myocarditis for every 100,000 people!
An interesting side note: Dr Campbell made a reply to one of the many (and lately increasing numbers are crititical) commentators admonishing him for not mentioning the far greater risk of myocarditis post covid infection. One US study said 7x a Scandinavian study said 5x. He basically said that it was against the oft quoted in medicine nursing principle of "Do no harm". Derived from a simplified version of the Hippocratic Oath. But in practice it means one should treat with minimum harm to achieve the greatest beneficial outcome. The new Campbell avoiding any mention of the small risk and the benefits of vaccination. Something the old Campbell in 2021 was saying. One reply asked what about anesthesia? It causes many deaths during operations.
Campbell is not someone on You tube to watch now for expert analysis...just for the statistics and to see where he is leading his thousands of loyal followers.
UK covid Public Enquiry
Evidence from ex PM Cameron on Pandemic plans not allowing for changes due to covid being a novel virus:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-65950286
Yesterday ex Heath Secretary Hunt said, among other things, that the UK could have avoided lock down through earlier quarantining. There was a "group think" over herd immunity which meant ways to stop a pandemic earlier weren't properly considered:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-65979485
Last, what has Super Sally been saying lately?
Newsletter June 19.
https://supersally.substack.com/
Latest vaccine injury report for March: 137 new ones, 46 serious including 10 deaths. None again admitted due to vaccine.
0.002% of doses administered.
As an anti vaxxer she has taken to listing so called "unexpected deaths" lately. This time 3 community figures. One had apparently been ill and recovered. Another was of heart failure. Each time drops a hint as to what she thinks were the causes of death. When each time there isn't one stated..
A more interesting item about how the government proposes to tackle the nurse shortage here...by lowering standards!
About the new Health Secretary Herbosa.
About Mayon Volcano and the Batangas tremor !!
Her thinking about those latest activities is that it shows the power of Mother Nature. Humans should work with her, not mess with her! Of course...vaccination! But all that vaccination does is to try to teach the immune system to work better.
:
.
Jun 27th 2023, 12:18 am
#2050
BE Forum Addict
Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 2,352
Re: NCR llockdown
Weekly Report
New cases 3,442 (4,281). A 20% fall (-35%).
The latest from Worldometers:
Top 10 reported cases in the world. Greatly affected by countries not reporting. Then some only reporting every one or two weeks. S Korea now reporting weekly...last week only 32 a day average. Thailand every 2 weeks, average 118 a day. Indonesia had an unusually low figure yesterday, averaged about 100 daily cases lately. So Philippine daily numbers at about 500 are still quite high.
Deaths 0.
Active cases 8,244 (8,659). Down 5%.
Hospital data
New serious cases 37 (57)
Admitted 325 (477)
ICU 13.0% (16.6%)
Non ICU 17.7% (19.5%)
Improving hospital situation
Three late vaccination roll out countries compared:
2020-21: Philippines excess deaths peak late 2021.
2020-21: South Africa excess deaths peaks in both years.
2020-21: Egypt excess deaths also peaks in both years.
Their vaccine roll outs:
Philippines vaccine roll out delayed in 2021. General population start mid 2021.
For an analysis of the reasons see:
https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/in...e-deal-pfizer/
The article does not include an allegation that the President did not want to pay a deposit.
South Africa also had a delayed roll out, and made things worse by temporarily suspending the AZ vaccine after a small study said it was ineffective against the dominant variant there:
https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1949
2020-21: Egypt excess deaths.
Egypt received few vaccine doses in early 2021 and only got a large Pfizer delivery much later in 2021 for its 100M population.
It adopted a mandatory vaccine policy.
\
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/20/w...e-mandate.html
Vaccine doses per 100 people for the 3 countries. The UK for comparison.
Covid cases per M 2020-21. S Africa's varied greatly with 4 high peaks. Egypt early 2020 peak. Philippines peak late 2020 and 2021 peaks.
So the 3 countries each had substantial excess deaths 2020-21. Covid cases significant only for S Africa 2020-21 and have to be seen against its high excess death peaks..Vaccines not administered in time in any country to affect this. Good evidence that for each country something other than vaccines caused the high non covid excess deaths. For S Africa and the Philippines probably caused mostly by longer term effects of covid. For Egypt other reasons must have caused their high excess deaths. They had a lock down but also possibly a poor health service, although deaths per M for the whole pandemic were lower than average. Poor statistics are also a possibility.
SS in a newsletter June 24 reported rising deaths in Japan. She suggests something to do with the booster campaign. Japan is now one of the most highly boostered nations.
Our World in Data also reports on Japanese excess deaths, using its own methods:
Japanese excess deaths showing an upward trend though recently possibly signs of a reverse.
Latest 2022 PSA updates:
2022 deaths still provisional.
Philippine deaths 26% lower than in 2021. 7% lower than in 2020,
Births 3% lower than 2021 and 21% lower than 2019.
https://supersally.substack.com/
No Dr John Campbell video for over a week.
But yesterday on Back to the Science this was interesting:
Dr Susan Oliver exposes Robert Kennedy Jnr's understanding on vaccines to be based on "half truths" about vaccines. Half truths being a large under estimate.
New cases 3,442 (4,281). A 20% fall (-35%).
The latest from Worldometers:
Top 10 reported cases in the world. Greatly affected by countries not reporting. Then some only reporting every one or two weeks. S Korea now reporting weekly...last week only 32 a day average. Thailand every 2 weeks, average 118 a day. Indonesia had an unusually low figure yesterday, averaged about 100 daily cases lately. So Philippine daily numbers at about 500 are still quite high.
Deaths 0.
Active cases 8,244 (8,659). Down 5%.
Hospital data
New serious cases 37 (57)
Admitted 325 (477)
ICU 13.0% (16.6%)
Non ICU 17.7% (19.5%)
Improving hospital situation
Three late vaccination roll out countries compared:
2020-21: Philippines excess deaths peak late 2021.
2020-21: South Africa excess deaths peaks in both years.
2020-21: Egypt excess deaths also peaks in both years.
Their vaccine roll outs:
Philippines vaccine roll out delayed in 2021. General population start mid 2021.
For an analysis of the reasons see:
https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/in...e-deal-pfizer/
The article does not include an allegation that the President did not want to pay a deposit.
South Africa also had a delayed roll out, and made things worse by temporarily suspending the AZ vaccine after a small study said it was ineffective against the dominant variant there:
https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1949
2020-21: Egypt excess deaths.
Egypt received few vaccine doses in early 2021 and only got a large Pfizer delivery much later in 2021 for its 100M population.
It adopted a mandatory vaccine policy.
\
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/20/w...e-mandate.html
Vaccine doses per 100 people for the 3 countries. The UK for comparison.
Covid cases per M 2020-21. S Africa's varied greatly with 4 high peaks. Egypt early 2020 peak. Philippines peak late 2020 and 2021 peaks.
So the 3 countries each had substantial excess deaths 2020-21. Covid cases significant only for S Africa 2020-21 and have to be seen against its high excess death peaks..Vaccines not administered in time in any country to affect this. Good evidence that for each country something other than vaccines caused the high non covid excess deaths. For S Africa and the Philippines probably caused mostly by longer term effects of covid. For Egypt other reasons must have caused their high excess deaths. They had a lock down but also possibly a poor health service, although deaths per M for the whole pandemic were lower than average. Poor statistics are also a possibility.
SS in a newsletter June 24 reported rising deaths in Japan. She suggests something to do with the booster campaign. Japan is now one of the most highly boostered nations.
Our World in Data also reports on Japanese excess deaths, using its own methods:
Japanese excess deaths showing an upward trend though recently possibly signs of a reverse.
Latest 2022 PSA updates:
2022 deaths still provisional.
Philippine deaths 26% lower than in 2021. 7% lower than in 2020,
Births 3% lower than 2021 and 21% lower than 2019.
https://supersally.substack.com/
No Dr John Campbell video for over a week.
But yesterday on Back to the Science this was interesting:
Dr Susan Oliver exposes Robert Kennedy Jnr's understanding on vaccines to be based on "half truths" about vaccines. Half truths being a large under estimate.
Jul 3rd 2023, 9:44 pm
#2051
BE Forum Addict
Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 2,352
Re: NCR llockdown
Weekly Report
New cases 2,747 (3,442). Another 20% decrease last week.
Two late recorded deaths announced.
Active total slightly down at 6,925.
The latest OCTA report says NCR positivity down to 4.9%:
Hospital Report
New admissions 32 (37)
Admitted 442 (325)
ICU 13.7% (13.0%)
Non ICU 17.7% (17.7%)
E and SE Asian update from Worldometers
S Korea reports weekly and the latest report is due soon. Recently at 8-900 a day. Japan no longer reporting to Worldometers. But see article below.
Again Philippines well above Vietnam and Indonesia....two previous days at 319 and 397 cases.
Rebound in Japan:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...kinawa-strain/
Will give some other covid news later this week.
New cases 2,747 (3,442). Another 20% decrease last week.
Two late recorded deaths announced.
Active total slightly down at 6,925.
The latest OCTA report says NCR positivity down to 4.9%:
Hospital Report
New admissions 32 (37)
Admitted 442 (325)
ICU 13.7% (13.0%)
Non ICU 17.7% (17.7%)
E and SE Asian update from Worldometers
S Korea reports weekly and the latest report is due soon. Recently at 8-900 a day. Japan no longer reporting to Worldometers. But see article below.
Again Philippines well above Vietnam and Indonesia....two previous days at 319 and 397 cases.
Rebound in Japan:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...kinawa-strain/
Will give some other covid news later this week.
Jul 4th 2023, 12:00 am
#2053
BE Forum Addict
Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 2,352
Re: NCR llockdown
They want to push the bivalent boosters.
https://mb.com.ph/2023/5/22/muntinlu...spital-workers
Jul 4th 2023, 2:14 am
#2054
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Feb 2014
Location: Marikina Philippines
Posts: 885
Re: NCR llockdown
You should know by now that I ask extremely cynical about the recent management of Covid in this Land of Seven Thousand Islands. Given my experience of Covid and vaccinations I really wonder if bivalent boosters will do any good. As I understand it, the bivalent booster offers six months protection a similar period to Pfizer, Moderna etc. Following on, despite people having had 2,3 or 4 vaccinations if the last one was more than six months ago one is not protected. So logically nearly the whole population of the Philippines is currently unprotected against Covid.
I really do believe that the management of Covid is way out of kilter with the reality. Yesterday, on the Worldometer site 6,846 active cases were reported, knowing that is not a true picture and increasing that figure fivefold the Covid issue is not in fact a problem given that the population of the Philippines is around 112.5 million.
I hope that ultimately common sense will prevail over emotion.
I really do believe that the management of Covid is way out of kilter with the reality. Yesterday, on the Worldometer site 6,846 active cases were reported, knowing that is not a true picture and increasing that figure fivefold the Covid issue is not in fact a problem given that the population of the Philippines is around 112.5 million.
I hope that ultimately common sense will prevail over emotion.
Jul 6th 2023, 12:05 am
#2055
BE Forum Addict
Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 2,352
Re: NCR llockdown
Covid news updates
SS posted an update on regional Philippine Excess Deaths July 3:
https://supersally.substack.com/
As 2020 did have some covid deaths I prefer to compare Pandemic years with the normal year of 2019. The results are similar.
2021
NCR 33.8%, 4A 50.4%, CL 52.1%. In the Visayas WV had the worst number at 46.6%.
In Mindanao NM was at 48.2%, Zamboanga 45.5%. Davao was lower at 34.1%.
The autonomous Muslim region of BARMM had an extremely high 127.3%.
Notable that vaccination of the general public here did not start until the second half of 2021.
2022....preliminary data. More updates expected so these numbers will get worse.
Excess deaths for 2022 down 25.6% on 2021, up 6.5% on 2020.
Regionally compared to 2019
As SS says in her headline the NCR showed a fall compared to 2020.One of 6.5%. Compared to 2019 a fall of 5.4%. Again compared to 2019 for the other two large regions in Central Luzon, 4A was up 5.9%. CL up 5.1%. In the Visayas EV went up by 16.5%, WV by 9.7%. Mindanao regions other than BARMM had excess deaths ranging up from Davao 8.2% to 13.3% up for Caraga.
Again BARMM was again an extreme outlier at 66.3% up..
Noteworthy differences between 2022 and 2021 compared with 2019:
1. A big turnaround in the NCR, in 2022, but not in the adjoining large regions of CL and 4A.
2. These regions did relatively badly in both 2021 and 2022:
WV 9.7%, Zamboanga 9.7%, NM 11.7%
3. These regions surprisingly ranked worse in 2022 than in 2021:
Bicol 6.8%, EV 16.5%, Davao 8.2%, SOCCSK 12.6%, Caraga 13.3%.
So it seems that it's mostly regions in Mindanao that have not recovered from the Pandemic effects on health and health services.
If you read the SS newsletter you will, as usual, pick up she is looking to continue blaming the continuing excess deaths in 2022 on covid vaccinations. When there were some excess deaths in 2020 and a large number in 2021. For nearly all of that time vaccines cannot be implicated. All the evidence suggests that the most likely causes are sequelae from covid, especially vascular in nature, also missed diagnoses, treatment and undiagnosed covid.
She cannot avoid mentioning that the NCR had a strikingly large 40% turnaround from 2021-22. She doesn't remind her readers that the NCR is also one of the most highly vaccinated regions with over 12M people fully vaccinated, according to ABS-CBN.
Ending covid era restrictions
The Health Secretary suggesting it's just a matter of time before Marcos Jnr signs off on them:
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...cid=BingHPCTop
But...there may be a problem with the legal basis for rolling out the bivalent vaccines if the Covid emergency is lifted.
Also the DOH have already started to roll out the donated bivalent vaccines and do not want to see a message given which might affect demand.
On the positive side immunity does not end when antibodies decline to a low level as people will have some long term immunity from long living B and t memory cells. From infection and/or vaccination.
You tube videos:
Dr Susan Oliver on more misinformation from RFK Jnr (see also last week here) on the MMR vaccines and autism. She starts with the infamous, now retracted, 1998 paper in the Lancet by Dr Andrew Wakefield et al.
Dr John Campbell chose to start his return from a two week break with a video on the final report from US Intelligence agencies to the US Senate on the Lab Leak covid origin theory:
Getting no further than the preliminary report.
There's a lot more you can read from it, but here are the not overwhelming main conclusions on the competing covid origin theories from the various agencies:
Internationally. From a meta study.
Dr Campbell more than usually careful not to mention the vaccines. But we know, and
from the many comments we can see his followers also do, that is his hidden agenda here.
But unfortunately for him no vaccines were given to young people to account for the first year
increase and few were given in the second year. He must know that but keeps quiet.
As is noted diabetes has been on a yearly rise in Europe and the CDC say in the US..
Diet has been a factor thought likely to explain much of that increase and those same
dietary changes look to have accelerated during the Pandemic years.
This morning here Dr Campbell is excited about another video:
But not a paper. Just a research letter to the editor. Was it really peer reviewed as Campbell says? Looks at Pfizer vaccine safety variability with batch in Denmark. Campbell using the word viral here to say it has been trending on the internet.Though I couldn't see much about it from a standard Google search.
Variability between batches wouldn't be surprising. You may recall there have been claims here that "death spikes" seen in data from Cebu and Central Luzon could have been caused by bad batches.
Finally some viewing suggestions from You tube on a vaccination theme:
Rawhide TV series: Incident at Red River Station.(1960).
Eric Flemming and a young Clint Eastwood with the other drovers get caught up in a late 19th Century vaccination campaign along the way of their cattle drive. The US Army get involved.
A Matter of WHO (1961)..
Film from a time when the WHO was much more respected.
Terry Thomas Stars as a top WHO doctor on the look out for dangerous diseases coming in to Europe. A few laughs but not nearly as many as usual from him. A complicated plot linking crime with smallpox.
SS posted an update on regional Philippine Excess Deaths July 3:
https://supersally.substack.com/
As 2020 did have some covid deaths I prefer to compare Pandemic years with the normal year of 2019. The results are similar.
2021
NCR 33.8%, 4A 50.4%, CL 52.1%. In the Visayas WV had the worst number at 46.6%.
In Mindanao NM was at 48.2%, Zamboanga 45.5%. Davao was lower at 34.1%.
The autonomous Muslim region of BARMM had an extremely high 127.3%.
Notable that vaccination of the general public here did not start until the second half of 2021.
2022....preliminary data. More updates expected so these numbers will get worse.
Excess deaths for 2022 down 25.6% on 2021, up 6.5% on 2020.
Regionally compared to 2019
As SS says in her headline the NCR showed a fall compared to 2020.One of 6.5%. Compared to 2019 a fall of 5.4%. Again compared to 2019 for the other two large regions in Central Luzon, 4A was up 5.9%. CL up 5.1%. In the Visayas EV went up by 16.5%, WV by 9.7%. Mindanao regions other than BARMM had excess deaths ranging up from Davao 8.2% to 13.3% up for Caraga.
Again BARMM was again an extreme outlier at 66.3% up..
Noteworthy differences between 2022 and 2021 compared with 2019:
1. A big turnaround in the NCR, in 2022, but not in the adjoining large regions of CL and 4A.
2. These regions did relatively badly in both 2021 and 2022:
WV 9.7%, Zamboanga 9.7%, NM 11.7%
3. These regions surprisingly ranked worse in 2022 than in 2021:
Bicol 6.8%, EV 16.5%, Davao 8.2%, SOCCSK 12.6%, Caraga 13.3%.
So it seems that it's mostly regions in Mindanao that have not recovered from the Pandemic effects on health and health services.
If you read the SS newsletter you will, as usual, pick up she is looking to continue blaming the continuing excess deaths in 2022 on covid vaccinations. When there were some excess deaths in 2020 and a large number in 2021. For nearly all of that time vaccines cannot be implicated. All the evidence suggests that the most likely causes are sequelae from covid, especially vascular in nature, also missed diagnoses, treatment and undiagnosed covid.
She cannot avoid mentioning that the NCR had a strikingly large 40% turnaround from 2021-22. She doesn't remind her readers that the NCR is also one of the most highly vaccinated regions with over 12M people fully vaccinated, according to ABS-CBN.
Ending covid era restrictions
The Health Secretary suggesting it's just a matter of time before Marcos Jnr signs off on them:
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...cid=BingHPCTop
But...there may be a problem with the legal basis for rolling out the bivalent vaccines if the Covid emergency is lifted.
Also the DOH have already started to roll out the donated bivalent vaccines and do not want to see a message given which might affect demand.
On the positive side immunity does not end when antibodies decline to a low level as people will have some long term immunity from long living B and t memory cells. From infection and/or vaccination.
You tube videos:
Dr Susan Oliver on more misinformation from RFK Jnr (see also last week here) on the MMR vaccines and autism. She starts with the infamous, now retracted, 1998 paper in the Lancet by Dr Andrew Wakefield et al.
Dr John Campbell chose to start his return from a two week break with a video on the final report from US Intelligence agencies to the US Senate on the Lab Leak covid origin theory:
Getting no further than the preliminary report.
There's a lot more you can read from it, but here are the not overwhelming main conclusions on the competing covid origin theories from the various agencies:
Internationally. From a meta study.
Dr Campbell more than usually careful not to mention the vaccines. But we know, and
from the many comments we can see his followers also do, that is his hidden agenda here.
But unfortunately for him no vaccines were given to young people to account for the first year
increase and few were given in the second year. He must know that but keeps quiet.
As is noted diabetes has been on a yearly rise in Europe and the CDC say in the US..
Diet has been a factor thought likely to explain much of that increase and those same
dietary changes look to have accelerated during the Pandemic years.
This morning here Dr Campbell is excited about another video:
But not a paper. Just a research letter to the editor. Was it really peer reviewed as Campbell says? Looks at Pfizer vaccine safety variability with batch in Denmark. Campbell using the word viral here to say it has been trending on the internet.Though I couldn't see much about it from a standard Google search.
Variability between batches wouldn't be surprising. You may recall there have been claims here that "death spikes" seen in data from Cebu and Central Luzon could have been caused by bad batches.
Finally some viewing suggestions from You tube on a vaccination theme:
Rawhide TV series: Incident at Red River Station.(1960).
Eric Flemming and a young Clint Eastwood with the other drovers get caught up in a late 19th Century vaccination campaign along the way of their cattle drive. The US Army get involved.
A Matter of WHO (1961)..
Film from a time when the WHO was much more respected.
Terry Thomas Stars as a top WHO doctor on the look out for dangerous diseases coming in to Europe. A few laughs but not nearly as many as usual from him. A complicated plot linking crime with smallpox.