NCR llockdown

Old Mar 17th 2022, 4:04 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Bealinehx
The Philippines?
As it is now election season does anyone really expect serious data to be released?
I think they will continue to release this limited information weekly, but so far the two reports have come out late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Missing the evening news. Then no daily data on Tuesday. One today which has been ignored so far by the news media. It will be interesting if, as is quite possible, cases and hospital admissions start to rise again before May.
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Old Mar 17th 2022, 4:14 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Also we must not forget that most of the decision makers will not be around after June.
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Old Mar 17th 2022, 10:25 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday's new cases up 205 to 598.
Deaths 145
Active 45,394. Down only 53.

Location detail:

The NCR up substantially to 229, that's nearly 40% of all cases. The 6 largest cities all up. Manila up 13 to 31, Paranaque 27 to 37.
Seems clear that the virus is not dying away there. Whether it is a pause in the decline or the beginning of an upturn we shall see, As that goes against the picture the DOH and government wants to paint we wait for expert comment from the OCTA group and other experts on the possibilities. Although it seems everyone is reluctant now not to be optimistic.

Also we see region 4A up to 71, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal provinces all with some more cases. It had 12.3% of all cases.
The CL region added a few up to 53 and 9.2% of total cases.
These 3 regions together at 61% of all cases.

In the Visayas WV with 22 less at 39, CV had 15 more to 42.

All Mindanao areas except BARMM had small or moderate case increases.
No major case number changes in other cities.
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Old Mar 18th 2022, 10:00 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 53 fewer cases with 545 announced.
Deaths 119 Information on the month of these deaths now not given daily. Instead it might be given weekly. But we can be sure many of these deaths go back many months, some even years.
Active 45,491 Up by nearly 100. An Increase in the Active count not seen since early January.

Location detail:

The NCR report fell greatly after Wednesday's 229 to 128 and 23,5% of all cases. Five of its 6 largest cities down. One the same.
Region CL down a few cases to 42, 4A down a little to 66.

The three largest Visayan regions were all up. WV the most, more than doubling to 85.

Cebu City added 9 to 22.
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Old Mar 19th 2022, 11:23 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 20 less cases at 525.
Deaths 24
Active 45,339, down 152

Location detail:

The NCR was up 60 to 188 and 35.8% of all cases. All of its 6 largest cities were up. Paranaque the most with 17 more to 27.

The CL region was down but 4A went up 13 to 79, highest of the week. The Cavite and Laguna provinces were both up. Rizal down by only 1 case.

The WV, CV and EV regions were all with lower reports than the day before.

In the Mindanao regions NM and Davao were both down a little. Zamboanga and SOCCSK were both up by a few cases.

Weekly report:

There was no data for last Tuesday. I will be able to get its most important missing number, the national case total, from the DOH's weekly report, probably coming out on Tuesday. Will do something then on last week as best as I can given the absent location data.
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Old Mar 20th 2022, 11:18 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

New cases yesterday: 577
Deaths 240
Active 45,201 down 138
Lowest since Jan 5

Location data:

NCR up 41 to 229 and 39.7% of all cases. But only small upward changes in its 6 biggest cities..
CL region up 9 to 42, 4A down 9 to 70.

In the Visayas WV up 16 to 62, CV and EV both down.

Cases in the Zamboanga Peninsula up 10 to 28.

For cities:

The only notable upward movements were IloIlo City up 14 to 22 and Zamboanga City up 11 to 20.

The Philippines brush with Omicron seemingly nearly over but the UK seeing an upward trending wave, according to the latest ZOE data:




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Old Mar 21st 2022, 12:26 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Don't count your blessings about Omicron. Vietnam is showing the same alarmingly upward trend as has been the case in S Korea.. Not a time to be complacent.
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Old Mar 21st 2022, 12:53 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yes, special factors operating here could well push numbers up again soon, starting in the NCR ,which already is showing a resistance to continued case falls.

What is common to S Korea and Vietnam is that they got off very lightly earlier in the pandemic.
Japan did quite well too earlier but they're now having an Omicron wave, which may be about to peak.
Thailand had a fairly high Delta peak and like Japan their Omicron wave may be about to peak.

So the Philippines in a better place for now, together with Indonesia and Malaysia, all three having had significant earlier surges to deal with.

PS Dr John in his latest latest video looks at Hong Kong. He gets it wrong that it has a lowish overall vaccination rate. It's high, but not in the elderly. But he does refer to Sinovac, the main vaccine used there, with its low effectiveness. The implications for China of that. But then here about half of those fully vaccinated had Sinovac.

Last edited by Raffin; Mar 21st 2022 at 1:52 am.
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Old Mar 22nd 2022, 2:54 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday a heavy weekend effect produced only 415 cases.
Deaths 13
Active 45,021 down 180.

NCR 115, down by well over 100 but still at 28% of all cases.
CL down just 2 to 40. 4A down 21 to 49.

Visayan region reports all down substantially.
Bacolod City up 6 to 10.
IloIlo City down 15 to 7.

Davao region up 6 to 27.

Weekly update:

For the country as a whole cases down by 19.0%. The week before they were down by 33%.

For the NCR there is a difficulty as I am missing all location data for last Tuesday.
Tuesday is usually a low report day, so I conservatively estimated the missing NCR figure for that day to be only 100.
So the rate of case fall is at the most 9.6%, likely though somewhat lower. Last week 22%.

I didn't make any assumptions about other regions for last Tuesday, so these figures are from 6 days compared to 7 the previous week so they show an exaggerated case fall

Regions limited to CL,4A the two other largely populated Luzon regions and the two major Visayan regions:

4A: 28% (last week 28%)
CL 29 (35)
WV 24 (45)
CV 11 (50)

So with only 6 days data definitely a lesser but still significant slowdown in the areas around the NCR compared to the NCR. In the Visayas both the two main regions sowing substantial slowdowns in case fall.

Some data from the DOH weekly report:
Their week different to mine as Tuesday to Monday not Sunday to Saturday.

Case fall: 14% last week 34%
Deaths 655 (591) Compared to my week: 653 (655)
Severe and Critical; 805 (1,006)
Phil ICU 17.8% (19.6%)





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Old Mar 22nd 2022, 11:27 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Cases yesterday a low 290.
Still the weekend effect on testing and we don't now get the daily positivity rate to calculate how many cases have been withheld for validation.
Positivity lately has fallen to an average of 2.5% last week. Let's say it is now 2.0%...that would mean 400 or so cases now from about 20k individual tests on Sunday.

Deaths 18
Active 46,764 down 257

Location detail

NCR cases down by 12 but at a higher 35.5% of all cases. Two big cities had more cases. Paranaque up 13 to 22.
CL cases were half those the day before but 4A cases went down 8 to 41. Laguna province reported only 4.

Visayan cases down substantially.
EV reported a zero.

Zamboanga Pen cases up 7 to 18.
The main city there up 10 to 17.
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Old Mar 24th 2022, 9:28 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 407 cases
Deaths 282
Active 44,597, down 167

Location detail

NCR 123 cases, 30.2% of all cases. In the 6 biggest cities 4 up by a few cases each only..
CL up a little but 4A more than doubled to 85 and 20,9% of all cases. Cavite province up 27 to 47.

WV up 18 to 38, CV up 7 to 27.

In MIndanao the SOCCSK region up 12 to 23.

Small numbers in all tracked cities.
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Old Mar 24th 2022, 9:46 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 442 cases
Deaths 208
Conveniently for the DOH the news media only give the cumulative total of deaths each day.

Location detail:

NCR 143 cases, up at 32.4% of all cases. City of Manila up 11 to 28, Paranaque 5 to 16.
The CL region up 19 to 48, 4A down 33 to 52. Cavite province down 23 to 24.

So the area surrounding the NCR adding 22.6% of all cases. Together with the NCR 55% of all cases yesterday.

The Visayas is the other main area for cases. Its 3 main regions all up moderately. In total 25% of all cases.
Cebu City up 8 to 21.

Lately small numbers in nearly all my tracked cities.
Zero cases reported yesterday in both IloIlo City and Baguio City.

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Old Mar 25th 2022, 11:07 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

New cases yesterday: 411
Deaths 60
Active 44,149, down 429

Location detail

NCR down by only by 3 to 140 and 36% of all cases.
4A up 2 to 54 and 13% of all cases. Cavite up 4 to 28.

Ilocos region up 4 to 17.

WV up 3 to 51, CV down 21 to 32.

In Mindanao the SOCCSKSARGEN region up 11 to 23.

Zamboanga City up 6 to 14.

The DOH charts show infections and deaths by date of origin. They make an estimate if that data is missing. You can see from the difference between the trend line and the bars that for both infections and deaths, especially for infections, the daily figures are some weeks out of date.



Infections.


Deaths



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Old Mar 26th 2022, 10:25 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 437 new cases
Deaths 53
Active 43,486, down 663

Location detail:

NCR at 161, up 21 and at a slightly higher 36.8% of all cases.
Four of its biggest cities with more cases.
The CL region up 11 to 31, 4A also up but by only a little. Cavite and Laguna provinces both up a little.
The CAR up 13 to 16.

WV down by 7, CV by 4.
Cebu and IloIlo cities both up a little. Each to 12 cases.

Davao region up 6 to 21.
Davao City up 5 to 12.

Weekly report later.
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Old Mar 27th 2022, 2:52 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Weekly update:

As expected the rate of weekly case decline has slowed nationally to 7%. Last week 19%.

Primarily due to the NCR, where I estimate cases increased by about 2% on the previous week. Last week at 1,014. Estimated then to have fallen by about 9% on the previous week. I say estimated as one day's data from the previous week was missing.

For my 6 NCR cities last week's figure with the previous week's 6 day figure for comparison:

Caloocan 101 (82+)
Manila 154 (171+)
Paranaque 123 (113+)
Pasig 45 (52+)
QC 139 (126+)
Taguig 57 (55+)

Of the above 6 biggest cities only Caloocan looks like it definitely had an increase, but 3 others get close.

One day's data for all the other areas of the country was also missing in the previous week so please bear that in mind as I now give these figures, for a few of them only, in the same way:

CL 230 (259+)
4A 407 (423+)

Cavite 199 (143+)
Laguna 69 (121+)

Region 4A close to a small increase, CL less close.
For its provinces Laguna a probable fall but Cavite likely to have had a small increase.

WV 307 (357+)
CV 233 (265+)

Both the two main Visayan regions look likely to have small falls.

Providing no more missing data (and missing domestic internet!) I will be able to look at more areas in my next update.

Philippines Genomic Testing:

A question: why no genomic report since the end of January?

Don't want to make too much of this, but on the basis of the last report the world took it on that the Philippines was dominant with the Omicron BA.2 variant. Despite the small sampling and the vague statement to the effect that it was seen in 14 regions and especially in Central areas of Luzon.
I bring this up because in many other countries the BA.2 variant is rampant. This is the latest UK ZOE chart:



So did we really have dominant BA.2 here? As many other countries have seen its widespread transmission, not just in Europe, but in E and S E Asia with very large case numbers. But we did not.

Of course I am not suggesting that is necessarily the reason for the non appearance of Genomic data lately. Maybe just cost cutting?
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