Raffin

I expected more cases yesterday but am surprised at the size of the increase of well over 500 to 1,309. Tests were actually down a little to 22.2k on the 29th. So it seems likely that as cases increase there is again some short term backlog being included.
Active 7,871, up 669

Location detail:

The NCR well up to 672 and 52% of all cases. Its six largest cities nearly doubled their total cases with 388. QC 150, Manila 75...Caloocan, recently with low numbers reporting a much higher 27 cases.

Both regions CL and 4A up substantially......to 108 and 231 cases.
Bulacan 35, Cavite 85, Batangas 40, Laguna 47, Rizal 46 cases.

The CAR down a little to 29.

Visayan cases up 41 to 155.
WV 97, CV 40. IloIlo City 43.
But Bacolod only 3, Cebu City 20, Tacloban City 0 cases.

Mindanao cases up 15 to 54. Davao City 14.

NCR Alert Level 1 to mid July...despite rising cases.

https://manilastandard.net/news/3142...-going-up.html

As for most policy areas you cannot get much idea of the thinking of the new President about health:

https://mb.com.ph/2022/07/01/marcos-...d-19-response/

So a lot will depend on who he picks as health Secretary.
The person appointed will certainly be a doctor. In contrast to the UK where very few doctors served as Health Minister..I can only recall David Owen. Doctors here who aspire to such positions have usually headed major institutions and have already become involved in politics at then lower level. They are the ones canvassed. So little chance of an outsider who wants to make big changes. Compare with education where BBM has already appointed the VP. She has already talked about reviews and changes. Qualified as a lawyer but with little experience of education in general.

Raffin

Yesterday just over 60 fewer cases at 1,243 and testing over 1k lower on June 30 to 20.7k.
Inauguration activities may well have reduced testing.
Deaths 10
Active 8,706, an increase of 835

Location detail

The NCR down 80 at 592 and with a lower 48% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities with 373 cases. QC 141, Manila 78, Taguig 56.

Region CL down 30 at 78, Bulacan 34 cases.
But 4A up 15 to 246. Cavite 87, Laguna 55, Batangas 47, Rizal 44 cases.

These 3 regions with a lower 74% of all cases.

The Visayas up 52 to 207, WV up to 112. CV more than doubled to 84.
Cebu City 27, IloIlo City 42, Bacolod 4, Tacloban 1.....so the increases are not in the main cities.

The Mindanao total down 4 to 50. Davao City 15.

Latest OCTA Positivity figures:


Large increase for Cavite, the most populous province, over the 4 days.

The DOH explaining why they have dropped the 2 week growth condition in their Alert Level classifications.
It wasn't giving the right answer! For a new administration who don't want to put restrictions on again if they can help it. It probably only needs to come formally into decision making if and when medical facilities start to come under pressure from this latest Omicron variant wave.
This shows the folly of adopting formally over complicated criteria for complex situations... like nationwide covid infection.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/01/...d-19-cases-doh

Raffin

Yesterday about 60 more cases at 1,302. Tests latest number down a little to 19.2k individuals.
Deaths 13
Active 9,105, up 399.

Location detail

The NCR up 33 to 625 cases. But its 6 largest cities total down by 14 to 357. QC 139, Manila 83, Paranaque 52.

Region CL at 72. Bulacan 24.
Region 4A up 49 to 295. Cavite up 45 to 132, Rizal up 21 to 65. Laguna 59, Batangas down 14 to 33.

These 3 regions at a higher 76% of all cases.

The Visayas total down at 173. WV 100, CV 62.
Bacolod City higher than lately at 12, IloIlo City 37, Cebu City 25.

Mindanao cases up 22 to 72. But the NM region much higher than recently at 22.
CDO City higher at 12.

Omicron BA.5, which we certainly have here now increasing the cases,much better at immune escape than previous Omicron variants as well as being as highly transmissible. According to Dr John and UK ZOE App data:



For us here too vaccination and previous infection will protect against serious illness. And the Philippines with the advantages of a younger population and more control measures. But this UK BA.5 reinfection data looks to mean we will have a significant wave in the Rainy Season. Implications for companies and offices. It is still a coronavirus Some will be hospitalized and a low percentage suffer long term symptoms.

Raffin

Weekly update:

For national cases only a slightly lower week on week increase of 57%.

NCR cases also increased by 57%. In its 6 biggest cities the total increased by less, 46%. Indicating higher cases rise in the other 11 smaller cities.
QC, Manila and Taguig each increased their cases by about 50%. Paranaque's by 42%, Pasig's low at 21%. Caloocan City cases increased on small numbers by 69%.

A bigger increase in the CL region at 72%, though still small numbers there at about 70 cases a day.
But the large 4A region increased its cases by 68%. Within that Cavite's rose by 90%, Rizal's by 66%

Though still with small numbers cases also rose in the CAR, Illocos and Cagayan Valley regions.

In the Visayas cases rose by 53%. At a slightly faster rate in the WV than in the CV region.
IloIlo City cases rose by 58% to 225. Cebu City's increased by 50% to 92.
But cases in the EV region fell by 7 to only 29.
Tacloban City reported 6 cases only.

Bicol, cases nearly doubled, but only to 78.

Mindanao cases rose by 52 to 363. Davao City cases by 42 to 97.
Small numbers in its cities:
CDO City 28, GenSan City 16, Iligan City 5,Zamboanga City 31.

Raffin

Yesterday up slightly to 1,323 cases nationally. Testing fell to 18.0k individuals on the 2nd.
Deaths 14
Active 9.703, up 598

Location detail

The NCR up by 38 to 663 and half of all cases. Of those 470 cases from its 6 biggest cities. QC 142, Manila 126, Pasig 70, Paranaque 66.

Region CL went up to to 85, Bulacan 32 cases.
4A down by 59 to 236. Cavite down by 58 to 74, Laguna up to 66, Rizal down to 54. Batangas up to 38 cases.

These 3 regions 74% of all cases.

The Visayas total went up a little to 191. WV 108, CV 60.
IloIlo City 40, Cebu City 27 cases.

Mindanao down to 61 cases.
Continuing small numbers reported in its cities.

Raffin

Lost the detailed report as I was about to post through a sudden internet failure so just time for a briefer one:

Cases down to 1,188 as Sunday tests fell to 13.8k.
NCR cases down to 557 and 47% of all cases.
QC 134, Manila 86.

CL region 86.
4A up 25 to 261. Cavite up 30 to 104.
The 3 top regions with 76% of all cases.

Visayas down to 178.

Mindanao cases down to 49.

DOH weekly report:

Cases up by 60%.
Deaths 74 (51) None after June 20.
Severe and Critical patients: little change.
ICU 15.3% (145.9%)

Singapore:

Dealing with a BA.5 wave before other countries in the region:


Singapore

Mandatory testing not resuming yet, but staffing problems there:

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapo...-covid-19-wave

Raffin

Against the trend that about 500 less cases were reported yesterday at 832, despite test numbers on the 4th at a much higher 19.9k.
Deaths 8
Active 10,032, down 62

Location detail

NCR 375 and down to 45% of all cases. 247 from its 6 biggest cities. QC 79, Manila 58, Paranaque 37.

Region CL down 16 to 70. Bulacan 18.
Region 4A down 75 to 186. Cavite 71, Laguna 39, Rizal 37, Batangas 34

These 3 regions maintained 76% of all cases.

The Visayas 114 cases.
Mindanao 45 cases. Noteworthy: Davao City up to 21.


Adverse Effects following vaccination,AEFI and Serious Adverse Effects, SAE Philippines by vaccine type.


A graph relating Philippine deaths attributable to covid 19 and vaccination roll out dates.

The above graphics taken from newsletters from https://supersally.substack.com/ which are published frequently with forthright comments of the author on the very latest Philippine data showing the effects of covid 19 here.

Births may have also been affected by covid 19, though this need deeper analysis to account for the effects of family planning programs here since 2017.

Raffin

Testing up by 2.7k on the 5th and there were 366 more cases announced yesterday at 1,198. A high increase but for some time now we have had no way of calculating the inclusion of backlogs.
Deaths 12
Active 10,323, up 291
Tests 22.6k on July 5.

Latest OCTA positivity data: July 3-5:
8.7% national, 9.8% NCR.

Location detail

NCR up 178 to 553 and 46% of all cases. Top 6 cities with 337 cases, a smaller percentage of the NCR total. QC 98, Manila 70, Paranaque 64.

Region CL up 37 to 107. Bulacan 32.
4A up 89 to 275. Cavite 104, Laguna 70, Batangas 53, Rizal 40.

These 3 regions up to 78% of all cases.

Visayas up 40 to 154. WV to 101.
IloIlo City to 43..highest this week so far.
CV down 3 to 36 cases.

Mindanao up 10 to 55 cases.
Davao City 24 cases.

The DOH tries to rescue BBM..

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...ays-doh/story/

..by changing it to a comparison with previous SARS Cor 2 variants.

Omicron variants, especially the latest, have become as transmissible as Measles and are much more pathogenic than the 'flu.
See the chart at the end of my post on June 19, # 1711.

Dr J presents research confirming they have much greater immune escape:


So reinfection after a few months much more likely.

Going against the trend of the earlier Omicron SARS Cor 2 variants to affect mainly the upper airways the evidence now points to potentially more lower airway and lung infection from BA.4 and 5:





Dr J said that South African hospital data does not show this. He mentioned Portugal, but a look at Worldometer data shows there also not much effect in their recent small wave. Though Britain may be different.

So for the Philippines we start with our young population and a higher level of adherence to protocols.So these findings on severity may not be so relevant as we now start our BA 4/5 wave. But the new government here under BBM is pressing on with its booster roll out, which seems to have stalled. So far 13% first booster, 1 % second. Also with child vaccinations. Even though the evidence is now showing the low protection given by vaccines based on the original Wuhan strain.they are still recommended to protect against serious illness and death. .But when that is much less likely with Omicron and in a country which has the advantages above is it the right policy here? Seems to me the public here can sense the futility of boosters even though they don't know the reasons.

Raffin

Yesterday an increase of well over 700 more cases to record 1,936. Testing on July 6 down a little to 21.7k.
Deaths 3
Active 11,370, up 1047

Latest OCTA positivity data:


NCR and selected provinces. Spreading out from the NCR.

Location detail

NCR up by nearly 300 to 849 but a lower 44% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities with 60% of the cases. QC 163, Taguig 82, Paranaque and Pasig both with 62.

CL up to 176. Bulacan 57.
4A up 138 to 413. Cavite 126, Laguna 110, Rizal 89, Batangas 81.

These 3 regions had a lower 74% of all cases.

Elsewhere in N Luzon the CAR, Cagayan Valley and especially Ilocos regions all with increases.
Ilocos added 41 to 56.
Baguio City 29.

Bicol region 27.

In the Visayas 270 cases. MIM 27, WV up 55 to 156 and CV up 47 to 83.
Cebu City 31, IloIlo City 76.
Tacloban City 0 and only 2 cases so far this week.

Mindanao up to 83. Davao City 27 cases.
Otherwise its main cities with small numbers still.

Bealinehx

When you compare Philippines new daily declared cases they are small beer when compared to the UK,France and Germany. Also the death rates in these countries are on the increase which begs the question, are the majority deaths made up by the unvaccinated?

Gazza-d

Also the proportion of deaths to number of cases is far greater it the Philippines compared to those European countries so is it the poorer healthcare in the Philippines or vastly under counting of cases.

Raffin

I think the Philippines greatly under counted cases but we can be much more certain that it also vastly under counted deaths due to covid after seeing the work the PSA did. Roughly speaking deaths double the DOH figure. I reported on that here last year. Added to that there is evidence of more deaths from vaccination itself here. See some recent charts here.

Rather than comparing with Europe, where Worldometer shows figures of deaths per M population (preferable now testing is being run down) of 2,634 for the UK, Germany 1,681 and France 2,287 I think we better to look at similar countries in the region:

Indonesia 561
Malaysia 1,078 high!
Thailand 439
Singapore 240
Philippines 539

But the real Philippines number likely at least double.

Vaccination status:

Not much information on people dead and seriously ill with covid and their vaccination status. Anti vaxxers and Dr John have been complaining about that. Hinting and more strongly saying it is deliberate by governments, even in the UK, to cover up the declining effectiveness of vaccines.

But just recently the ONS came up with this. Dr John may well discuss this soon on his channel.

"Deaths by vaccination status

COVID-19 mortality rates lowest for those with three vaccinations

Risk of death involving COVID-19 in England has been consistently lower for people who had a third vaccine dose or booster at least 21 days ago, compared with unvaccinated people and those with only a first or second dose.

Before March 2022, people who had received a second vaccine dose but not a third dose had a higher risk of death involving COVID-19 if their second vaccine dose was over six months ago than if they had their second dose less than six months ago. This indicated possible waning protection from vaccination over time.

Between March and May 2022, risk of death involving COVID-19 was similar for those who had received only a first or second dose and unvaccinated people, also indicating possible waning. However, there is more uncertainty around these estimates because of smaller populations.

While these rates are adjusted for age, they are not the same as vaccine effectiveness. Vaccinated and unvaccinated people likely differ in characteristics other than age, such as health. Some deaths are expected in vaccinated people as the number who are vaccinated is high and no vaccine is 100% effective.

Last updated: 06/07/2022"

As time goes by the effectiveness of the original vaccines will wane and Omicron is showing increasing immune escape lately. The Philippines booster roll out slow. Cases were not high here so immunity from previous infection is low.
So we are vulnerable here and facilities may get under pressure again.
If they start to believe in "living with the virus" the dreaded controls may not come back on......but at present no announcement on who is to be Health Secretary, so we await his or her views.

Raffin

Yesterday there were over 200 fewer cases announced over the day before. 1,712. Testing fell a little to 21.3k the day before.
Deaths 14
Active 12,528, up 1,158

Positivity: Nationally up to 9.2% July 3-7

Location detail

NCR down about 100 to 748 and maintaining 44% of all cases. Its top 6 cities with 443 cases.
QC 143, Manila 89, Pasig and Taguig both 66, Paranaque 57 cases.

Region CL down a little to 159.
4A down 42 to 371. Cavite 123, Laguna 91, Rizal 86.

These 3 regions up slightly to 75% of all cases.

Visayas numbers down 30 at 240.
WV 148, CV 60

Mindanao down 10 at 73.

Raffin

Yesterday 113 more added resulting in 1,825 vases announced. Tests on the 8th 22,2k.


Tests not increasing in line with cases.

Deaths 0
Active 13,021, up 493

Location detail

NCR 835 and up at 46% of all cases. For its 6 largest cities 508 cases. QC up to 162, Taguig 95, Manila 93, Pasig 81.

CL region 141, Bulacan 55.
4A up 20 to 391. Cavite 135..highest this week, Rizal 104, Laguna 85, Batangas 62.

These 3 regions with 75% of all cases.

Visayas up to 282 Both the WV and CV regions up a little.
IloIlo City 63, Cebu City 25, Tacloban City 1.

Mindanao up 6 to 79.
Davao City up to 24.

Latest OCTA positivity data:


Region 4A provinces in particular continuing to indicate many more cases could be found.
Pampanga needs to be monitored.
National positivity July 3-8 at 9.5%.


Weekly report later.

Raffin

Weekly update:

National reported case growth slowed last week to 45% from 57% last week.

NCR case growth slowed more to 36% from 57% last week.
Quite a large range in growth rates in its 6 biggest cities:

Taguig 71%
Pasig 70
Manila 52
Paranaque 43
QC 28
Caloocan 20

Region CL up by 69% and 4A by 64%.
Bulacan 27%, Cavite 54%, Laguna 80%, Rizal 67%, Batangas 69%.

With smaller numbers increases also in the N Luzon regions of the CAR, Ilocos and Cagayan.
Baguio City up 12 to 110.

Visayan case growth 42% (53% last week)
IloIlo City up 49% at 336. Cebu City up 21 to 159.
Mindanao case growth 23% (17% last week). But case numbers at 445 only a third of those in the Visayas.
Davao City up 43 to 140.

Do these figures mean a significant slowing in case growth? In some cities in the NCR, quite possibly. Perhaps not elsewhere given the low testing and high positivity in some areas,.