NCR llockdown

Old Mar 1st 2022, 11:51 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Bealinehx
From an earlier post from me.
"Interesting to note that as the UK is now in an endemic phase it seems to have ceased reporting data which is displayed in the Worldometers Coronavirus page."
The UK up until 25
February was reporting Covid data daily. It his now five days without any reporting. I wonder why?
Yes B, strange of Worldometers to do that.

The UK govt continue to do a daily report. But they don't give the latest daily figures directly , preferring a weekly comparison.
I seldom looked at it before so I don't know if they changed the presentation. But anyway the UK and many other countries are still in the Pandemic, not the Endemic phase. To be endemic the virus has to be confined to certain regions of a country. The problem is that the term pandemic has wrongly come to be understood only in an international context. Of course we don't speak of a common cold pandemic, an infection has got to be serous and maybe very transmissible to qualify. The Omicron variant is definitely the latter. And you can die or be severely ill from Omicron, though less chance of those outcomes than with previous variants. Then there is the possibility of long covid. A comparison with Influenza would be interesting.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

The BBC is best place for the daily UK figures.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274







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Old Mar 2nd 2022, 8:57 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

A much lower 866 cases announced from another 5k tests over the day before. Positivity higher at 4.7%. Backlog gained another 250 cases, to be held for validation. There were also 8 labs late to submit, likely to have added only about 10 cases.

Recoveries 1,622

Deaths 53
March 23, Feb 2
28 back to March 2020!

Active 50,827

Severe 1,417. Critical 298
Both unchanged.
Yesterday's critical figure should have been 298.

NCR ICU 24%, down 2%. National 25%, down 1%
NCR Ward beds 24.1%, down 0.4%

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Old Mar 2nd 2022, 9:49 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday's location data:

About 200 less cases were announced but the NCR stayed at just over one fifth of the national total....21.1% to be exact.
Although region 4A's figures and share both fell to 83 and 9.6% of national cases.
CL's cases were also down to 83.

WV added 42 cases to 169, almost 20% of all cases.
IloIlo City added 45 to 73.

The NM region had 43 more with CDO City adding 10 to 35.

SE and E Asian data:


Top 10 countries by new cases in Asia as listed by Worldometers yesterday.

Difficult to find any analysis on Singapore's surprising case numbers.


Singapore cases

Hong Kong:

In a worse situation and having to call in help from the Mainland. High death rate. Poor living conditions are a big factor, but can't find much explanation as to why things got so bad in this late wave.


Hong Kong cases


Hong Kong deaths had a recent spike: prior to yesterday's 246 they were down at 85, 82

Worldometers:

There are no other tables like theirs.
They are now back with the correct UK daily and total figures but it's not clear what they will do next Monday, when the UK announces combined figures for Monday and the weekend.
But anyway on April 1 it's been announced that England's mass covid testing is to be scrapped and they will rely on ONS data:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...cid=uxbndlbing





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Old Mar 3rd 2022, 9:10 am
  #1549  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Much higher testing at 27.1k but only 120 or so more cases announced. Partly because positivity was down to 4.5% but mainly as 232 cases were held over for validation. Five labs were late but only a small number of cases was likely lost.

Recoveries 1,349

Deaths 34, 26 RDs
March 11, Feb 3
20 back to April 2020.

Active 50,548

Severe 1,415, down 2. Critical 297, down 1
Small daily reductions.

NCR ICU 25%, up 1%. National 25%, unchanged.
NCR Ward beds 21.9%
Big fall..2.2%!
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Old Mar 3rd 2022, 11:59 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

I have the impression that Singapore is following the UK in its management of Covid. Where Omicron is dominant it seems that it is being treated as if it was a common cold or mild influenza.
Nice being able to go out and about in Alert Level 1, almost normal apart from the face masks.
Why is Comelec insisting on face shields? The general election is two months away! I wonder if someone has a warehouseful of them?
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Old Mar 3rd 2022, 9:09 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday's location data:

Over 100 more cases yesterday over the day before and the NCR with a slight fall in its national share. Up 22 to 205 cases. Five of its 6 largest cities with more cases.
Region 4A added 44 to 127, the second highest this week. Cavite put on 37 to 65 cases. The highest this week by one.
For now levelling or a very slow decline in NCR plus.....take your pick.
Ilocos and the CAR regions had small increases.

In the Visayas CV saw a doubling over the day before to 117 new cases. Cebu City up 33 to 47. The highest by far this week.

In Mindanao the Caraga, Zamboanga, Davao and SOCCSK regions all saw moderate increases.
But only GenSan and Zamboanga cities saw case increases, which were small.

OCTA comparing the situation now with that pre Omicron last December:


A mixed picture but OCTA seem fairly optimistic.


Comelec and Face Shields:

Many people have junked their face shields, so if they stick with this there will be a lot of opposition. Very inappropriate to expect people to use them in polling stations.

I don't think this is about people making a quick buck. The face shield issue here got to the level of a religious dispute, with some doctors, health experts and high up government officials fighting it out with those who, quite rightly, said there was no evidence they were any use in most settings. The President prevaricated. There was never any definitive statement on them, they just withered away with the help of some big city Mayors. So given all that I think the Comelec just doesn't dare to update their old safety protocol now. As we get nearer May this will obviously have to be changed, otherwise election turnout will be seriously affected. Interesting to see when and by whom.

This face shield saga almost fit for "humorous episodes"!

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Old Mar 4th 2022, 9:07 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Another lower announced total of 853. A lower positivity too at 4.3%, but on 25.5k tests so that meant again many cases were held over.... 243 today. Two labs late. Little effect on the total from those.

Recoveries 1,062

Deaths 232, 219 RDs
Mar 5, Feb 17, Jan 16
then a long tail of 194 in most of the months back to July 2020.

Active 50,230

Severe 1,411, down 4. Critical 296, down 1

NCR ICU 25%..National 25%
Both unchanged.
NCR Ward beds 24.1%, up 2.2%
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Old Mar 4th 2022, 9:32 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday's location detail:

National cases fell by 136 but the NCR numbers fell by only 20, with its national share increasing by 1% to 21.7.
Cases in each of its 6 largest cities fell, except for Taguig, which had the same number, 11.
Region 4A added a few more cases and accounted for a higher 15.6% of national cases.
Laguna and Rizal provinces each with a few more cases over the previous day's.
CL numbers went down by only none.

Otherwise case falls in nearly all other regions.
MIMAROPA up 10 to 26.

For cities elsewhere only CDO and GenSan reported some more.
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Old Mar 5th 2022, 9:50 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Today 88 more cases than yesterday to 941 new cases, 75 held over. Positivity went lower at 3.8%. Only one lab late to submit.

Recoveries 1,784

Deaths 109, 96 RDs

Active 49.374

Severe 1,344, down 67. Critical 292, down 4

NCR ICU 38%, up 11%. National 42%, up 10%
NCR Ward beds 34%, up 9.9%

If these are not typo errors an incredible one day change in the hospital data, especially inconsistent with the large drop in severe cases. The NCR ward beds increase also is not consistent with the fall in "moderate case" data from yesterday and today.

ABC-CBN saying that the DOH is to cease giving out daily case data from next week.

6.40 pm DOH Twitter published bulletin now corrected and same bulletin on DOH site.

NCR ICU 25%. National 25%
NCR Ward beds 24%

Large drop in severe cases unchanged.

Last edited by Raffin; Mar 5th 2022 at 10:44 am.
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Old Mar 6th 2022, 5:48 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday's location data:

The NCR added 60 cases to 245 at 26.0% of national cases, the second highest share last week. QC added 20, Manila had 16 more cases.
Region 4A added 18 to 151 and had 16.0% of all cases. Cavite province added 24 to 72.

The Cagayan Valley region added 13 to 50, the most in the week.

WV had 17 more cases to 110.

No significant upward changes in all other cities.

Weekly report:

The Philippines as a whole last week saw a 35% decrease over the previous week. The fall last week was 39% over the week before.

Above average regional falls:

SOCCSK 79
CAR 57
BARMM 49
Ilocos 45
Cagayan 45
Zamboanga 43
CV 40
Bocol 39
Caraga 39
NM 39
CL 36

Below average:

4A 34
Davao 32
EV 29
NCR 28
WV 23
MIM 13

Six largest NCR cities:

Range from Manila 22 up to Pasig 47%.
QC 26%.

Provinces around the NCR

Cavite 29 up to Rizal 38%

Other cities:

Baguio 52
Cebu 48
Bacolod 54
IloIlo +25
CDO 19
Davao 28
GenSan 40
Iligan 49 (only 20 cases last week)
Zamboanga 44

Outlook:

Cases officially falling at a good but variable rate just about everywhere. Remembering that these represent a fraction of all cases which could well be as x5 or higher, given it is probably mainly the Omicron variant. The great majority will cause only mild illness but some will cause severe illness, especially in the unvaccinated. Probably a bit too early to see many Omicron cases like that in primary hospitals. Cases still falling in them. But patients will be in many other secondary institutions.

Are cases in the NCR, 4A and WV heading towards a flattening? Now it looks more likely just reducing more slowly due to the increased economic activity. But the much slower rate of fall in WV is puzzling given that its Omicron wave started a week or so later than that in the NCR.

As indicated yesterday the DOH will stop daily reports on Monday and concentrate on hospital reports. Declaring victory over the pandemic but not relaxing on masks and keeping most areas in Alert Level 1. But you could say they are avoiding comment if, as is possible, we get some increases over the next few months:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/06/...t-careful-octa

One thing they have clarified is that vaccs cards are only needed in 3C spaces....ie closed, crowded, close-contact.

So this is my last weekly update in this form.
I will post if they do a daily report for today, otherwise I will see what daily hospital data is worth posting and when. And what weekly data they give out. Then there are OCTA reports.




Last edited by Raffin; Mar 6th 2022 at 5:58 am.
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Old Mar 6th 2022, 8:42 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Raffin,
A big thank you for all the hours you have spent collating and passing what at times was vital information.
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Old Mar 6th 2022, 10:07 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

First thank you B for your thank you!
Let's see what information will come out from other sources as I am sure there are many people who are not happy with the DOH change.

Well, this may be the last daily report on cases.

Slightly higher positivity at 3.9% from over 1k less tests. Held over 87 Cases held over for 5 consecutive days now. About 1k and many more before that. So the total announced was 870. Five labs were late but they probably would have only added a handful of cases.

Recoveries 1,433

Deaths 144, 130 RDs
I think they will be glad not to keep announcing those RDs!
March 12, Feb 64, Jan 48
20 back to Sep

Active 48,793

Severe 1,279, down 65. Critical 289, down 3
Looks like they have been having a clear out of severe cases. 132 in the last two days. Before that very small changes daily for the most part since mid February at 1,460. Looks like these numbers are not checked daily, rather at intervals.

NCR ICU 25%. National 25%
Both unchanged.
NCR Ward beds 24.1%, unchanged.
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Old Mar 6th 2022, 10:26 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday's location detail:

Tests fell by over 2k yesterday but the NCR total was down by only 22 cases to 223, a share of all cases at 25.6%. Slightly less than yesterday's figure. Four of the six largest NCR cities had less cases. But Manila only 1 fewer, QC 6 fewer. The NCR downward trend continues to slow..

Region 4A had 22 less cases to 129 but CL 13 more up to 70.

In the rest of the country cases were mostly down except:

Davao region up 10 to 48
SOCCSK region up 34 to 61.

Other cities:

Down except:
GenSan up 5 to 10
Zamboanga up 4 to 15
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Old Mar 7th 2022, 11:57 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Well, here is the new improved DOH weekly report:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops..._picks&order=1

Seems to be using as a week Tuesday to Monday inclusive. The total of 6,297 seems about right at 30% less. I had it higher for Sunday to Saturday at 35% less.

Very unhelpful with no regional information.

The idea is to focus on hospitals. Yesterday the DOH reported 1,279 Severe and 289 Critical.
Now miraculously 1,055 Severe and Critical!

You can work out from the data given that today's death total was 43.

That's all. But I will look around during the coming week and see if I can find other sources of case data.
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Old Mar 7th 2022, 8:31 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Report on March 7 cases:

To their credit the DOH are still giving the location data as normal. Though the tracker site is updated later later there you will also find the national total, which the DOH now doesn't want to announce daily, and information to work out daily deaths. Let's see if any journalists report on those data.

Yesterday tests would be low from Saturday, so total cases down by 137 to 733. But we can't work out cases held back for further validation. Often many.
Deaths were 43, as I posted yesterday.

NCR 183, down 40, but still about 25% of all cases.
In its largest cities only Paranaque had significantly more, 8 to 22.
CL had 8 more to 78 while 4A had 36 less, down to 93 and 10.7% of all cases.

The CAR had 20 more to 32, Ilocos 23 more to 38.

In the Visayas CV went up 4 to 76, WV down 35 to 55.
Cebu City added 12 to 29.

In Mindanao only NM reported significantly more cases, 24 to 49.
CDO City went up to 20 cases.
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