Shard

Most of the 'deserters' are those who went to UKIP/BP? It's said that the core Brexit vote (Tory+BP) is about 35% which is why I think Boris (in actuality Cummings) has confidence in calling a GE.

dave_j

Hmmm... Well you've chosen a slice of the UK electorate that's not doing too badly to start with.
I refer you to https://www.theguardian.com/money/20...s-better-value
It's clear that in the UK the average Costco customer probably visualises a downside to leaving the EU but I suspect that even a Costco customer would see benefits as the tariffs imposed by the EU will result in lower food prices.
'Ahh' I hear you say 'But he won't be able to afford even the cheaper prices because he'll have lost his job in the crash and won't be able to afford it'.
Well, if that ever came to pass, he'll join the dole queue with those voters who voted Leave then who saw no benefit to being to being in the EU in the first place and still want to leave. It'll be these ignored and forgotten voters who'll dictate, in the end, whether the UK leaves or not, when they get given the chance.

JamesM

The Labour party was the big winner.

UKIP had quit and the Brexit Party wasn't formed.

​​​​​​https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_U...neral_election

I think all the Brexit Party does is suck away voters from the Tory hard right.

I know the media and political experts share the same logic you are applying but it really left the Conservatives with egg on the face last time and I can see it happening again.

JamesM

54% of goods imported come from the EU currently with no tariff.

I'd like to know how your thinking concluded that these goods will somehow be cheaper once the freedom to move them around the continent is gone?

Shard

Yes the BP did suck away votes from the Tory hard right. The difference this time is that Farage is saying that if the Tories pursue a No Deal manifesto, he won't contest those seats. In any case, with the recent purge of moderate Tories, the party is now being seen as a quasi (English nationalist) Brexit.Party itself.

JamesM

Very sad.

Thanks David Cameron.

dave_j

It'll likely be the remaining 46% that'll be imported with lower tariffs. Importing food from the EU will likely not carry tariffs either.
But we'll see.

dbd33

This seems to imply that there is currently a tariff on food imported to the EU that is applied to food coming to the UK for which arrangements to import the food without tariffs after leaving have been made. For example, perhaps the EU imposes a tariff on Canadian cheese and that would not apply to Canadian cheese being sent to the UK after Brexit. Is that what you have in mind?

If so, I don't think it's the case. It seems inconceivable to me that the UK government has been organized enough to put post-EU trading arrangements in place for any goods from any country. I think some foodstuffs will no longer be available and some foodstuffs will cost more. None will cost less. That may be a reasonable trade off against the benefits of Brexit, which is why I'm trying to establish what the **** they are.

Shard

The UK government has been talking about zero tariffs on Brexit. It may be good for consumers (in the short term) but will decimate British business, especially agricultural business.

dbd33

A unilateral removal of tariff barriers would be ill advised and a bilateral one requires negotiation with the other government(s) involved. I suppose the former is possible but very much doubt the latter is in place; with which countries has the government negotiated the removal of tariff barriers and on which products?

Shard

My understanding is that Britain can remove category/specific tariffs at its discretion, provided that such tariffs are removed across all trading partners. Not completely sure about this, but I think that's how it works.

Almost Canadian

Surely, the way to get the latter, is to have the former, and hope the party that offers that wins, isn't it?

Shard

A slightly cryptic question, but yes we need an election.

Almost Canadian

Just compare the way the UK's politicians have handled this, with the way the EU's politician's have. I am confident that, behind the scenes, main EU leaders would be willing to deal with the Irish border issue but, publicly, they are standing firm with Ireland. The EU has not incentive to move from its current position if it believes that the UK will never actually allow Brexit to occur but will simply delay the matter indefinitely.

Almost Canadian

Trade is conducted all over the world and it works well. Clearly, trade between the UK and the EU post Brexit will be different than it is now but, eventually, a trade agreement will be achieved and life will return to normal, insofar as trade is concerned. However, the "will they, won't they" current situation will be massively affecting the decisions that businesses involved with UK/EU trade will have to make, which is not good for any of them. Once the position is know, they can deal with it but the ending delay upon delay helps no one.