bazzz

I can make condescending comments whenever I like.

My point being, that you're not always right. Didn't you lose a stack of money on the markets a couple of months back?

the big nowhere

hahahaha........is this what happens when one challenges the opinion of the currency guru...........everyone knows it is all guesswork,making graphs and stats fit..........we have made alot of money over the years buying and selling currencies...but we know it was just all about being in the right place at the right time.........lady luck !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

cneldred

You gotta be kidding.....i lost money on the second day of January and finished the month flat. That is what happens in my line of work. You never hear about the really good days.

When oil hits $200 i will pay for the humble pie to be UPS'd to you.

Chris

Danny B

I don't care, I exchanged at $2.15 back in July 07. It's all the poor sods in the UK that calculated buying a house at $2 > £1 that I feel sorry for..

G77

I think it's a bit harsh people giving Chris a hard time - he takes time to come in here and give us insider news from the markets, if you don't like them, then don't read them, simple as that. I for one enjoy reading them, so long may they continue! Keep up the good work Chris!

G586

Yep, but then so is weather forecasting, you can only model so much, the rest depends on what actually happens in the real world.....but if you are educated, qualified & have the right equipment, then you are probably going to be able to take the opportunities with the associated risks when they come around, rather than sit there sneering.....

Londonuck

It was 2.58 back in 98 when i went over!

boro97

That was also predicated by the money men on the itv news last night

Souvenir

I found out this morning that I'm getting a bonus this month. I wonder how much of it will left by the time it gets here?

I went to a conference in the US two years ago. The keynote speaker, a much-respected aerospace commentator, confidently and repeatedly predicted a return to $25 a barrel. Ooops.

the big nowhere

............obviously cneldred..........did have the right equipment...........but we haven't got the ' inside info' and still have managed to change our money 4 times over the last 6 years and come up with a few hundred thousand $$ more than we left the uk with..........as i said all luck.............

manningl

I agree from what I have read from Chris's posts he's a top man and he's from Essex - so all the non believers read something else nobody is forcing you to take what he says on board

Bazzz always seems to be winding somebody up but I do find him funny most of the time...

'the big nowhere' does that mean you're a full time trader or you just managed to make some money luckily? do you have a Job? Everyone loses when trading its part of the game but it doesn't necessarily make you a bad trader. Sometimes good trades lose...

Keep up the good work Chris I for one appreciate your efforts

G586

That was then, this is now and people are looking for an idea of what to do.

You're already in Oz, whose currency has also strengthened over the last few years (so you were indeed lucky), so this doesn't really concern you whereas Chris is both moving his house money across and trading for a living. A whole different ballgame.

I'm sure if he was advising you on how to evade Oz stamp duty, then you would be hanging on his every word.....

Danny B

But it's all relative to how much UK houses were worth in 1998 as lots of people are bringing there equity over to Canada.

cneldred

What you have to remember is 2 years ago things were very different people thought the sole reason's for the jump in oil prices was the aftermath of hurricane Katrina and the war in Iraq. Iraq they saw coming to an end, and the US had plans to add more refinery capacity.

The Katrina spike was because on the Atlantic coast of US there was at the time only one place were they could unload the huge Super Oil carriers for the Middle East, LOOP. The Louisanna Offshore Oil Platform, is located just offshore from New Orleans and was said to be right in the path of the storm. I remember trading the day after when it was unclear of the damage and then Reuters reported that Helicopters had flown over the top of LOOP and there was apparantly no structural damage. Markets went mental as the price of oil declined.

Nowadays the reason for the continued advance in oil has a number of reasons, OPEC are not helping they love the price up here, there are a number of non US friendly members in there who appear to be calling the shots, Venezuela and Iran.

Then you have the collapse in the US$ the currency Oil is priced in.

Add to that the demand coming out of India and China which quite frankly is the biggest driving force. Those 2 countries represent almost 33% of the population of the planet. I saw on CBC News a couple of months ago a piece on a new make of car being built in India that was going to cost about $4,000. The car looked like it was made of cardboard, but the point being these countries are in the midst of an industrial revolution.

Also a big reason for the Oil spike is security, a bit like a terrorist premium. Many expect the US to attack Iran before Bush leaves office. I do not see how personally, they can't have the manpower for another war. But If they did it would also cost them huge amounts. So result even weaker US$ as they print more money to pay for the war, fueling inflation, also the price of Oil explodes up again due to further insecurity in the gulf.

There is said to be a massive speculative bubble in Oil aswell. What that means is the hedge funds that people pay into for their pension plans are driving the price up too. They are looking for a place to make money, property is off the agenda, certain currencies are disliked US$, stocks are very uncertain at the moment, so where do the they invest, somewhere showing the fundamentals in place for good gains. The clearest trade is for them to buy Oil Futures for the above reasons.

See the picture is constantly changing which is why forecasts change. More data is provided weekly and monthly which either reinforces a view or changes the picture completely. Those things i have mentioned above are long term drivers, nothing is going to happen in the next couple of months to change any of those.

However, with things like currencies, inflation data, interest rates, rates of growth, which are all constantly changing have a huge effect and that is why it is much harder to predict something like that on a longer term.

Sorry to ramble on.

Chris

Souvenir

I hear where you're coming from. My work involves looking at metals and minerals (not on the investment side but I do look at markets). In every project I work on there is always "what about the China effect?". The "India effect" is also gaining in importance and may well overtake the "China effect".

I don't think many people in the West really understand just how rapidly the balance of economic power is shifting.