DeadVim

Noted, thanks!

abner

So, over many years after "full vaccination", you see the eventual total Covid-19 mortality count still accumulating for Australia and NZ, such that the eventual post-full-vaccination mortality count is greater than during the initial crisis.

OK, I get your point better now, and you might well prove to be right in the end, but there are a couple of caveats:

What is the definition of "full vaccination" status, in the context of affirming your prediction?

• First there's the individual one: the current functional definition of that in Australia is two jabs of either of the TGA-approved vaccines, AZ or Pfizer.
  • But that could well change, for Covid. Australia has already ordered 15M doses of Moderna "booster shots" (presumably intended to be effective against "new variants") but only 10M base Moderna jabs--which as a two-dose vaccine, covers only 5 million recipients.
  • So there's a clear implication that booster shots are perceived as potentially necessary, even for those who have received two-dose AZ, or two-dose Pfizer.
  • An individual's perceived status, as "fully vaccinated" or not, may therefore prove to be fluid over time.
• Second is the collective one, and that is also a moving target. Is it 70% of the population? 75%? 80%?
  • Ongoing movement of the mathematical goal line is scientifically logical, in the face of the progressively more infective variants that have recently evolved.

So I don't think it will ever be possible to make an objective, science-based "full vaccination status achieved" declaration for Covid-19 in Australia.

In one sense that renders your prediction likely to prove moot. But I still found it valuable, because it forces consideration of "when is this thing over, really?", on several fronts.

Because under-attack politicians will grab at nearly any potentially useful vaccination-related number to defend their failure to acquire, or failure to deliver, first-world-quality vaccines, for the Australian population. (It was excruciating to witness ScoMo's defense this morning of whether the feds' progress with full (2-jab) inoculation of the populace stood at 9%, vs 10%.)

ozzieeagle

I should have tried to attempt a figure that I personally perceive as full vaccination, so as to avoid focus on that point. I doubt we'll ever get higher than 90 pct and I'd personally guesstimate that the figure would be somewhere between 75 to 85 pct.

I just know that plenty of UK people have been double vaccinated, and are getting Covid and one person I know of has had 3 Covid bouts, the first before any vaccinations and this 3rd bout after the vaccinations have hospitalised her.

Times that by the population and there will be plenty of people that really find themselves in a serious situation with their likely upcoming Covid infection,

Amazulu

Just had 2nd jab, that's me done and dusted and contributing towards the herd

The vaccination centre out by the airport was easily 4 timed busier than when I went for my first. Looks like they're starting to crank them through

ozzieeagle

Both just had the second, 3,000Ks distance from the first. Up here in FNQ at Clifton Beach. Easy process just get your doctor to send your medical summary and they'll oblige with a jab at any local GP with the vaccine. Not going back to Melbourne until the Lockdown is well and truly history and the weather is warmer. Extended our stay twice here thus far.

Beoz

Pleased to report my wife is having her second today, which means both sets of parents and all siblings on both sides are fully vaxxed across the UK and Australia.

Given there are no fully vaxxed people amongst the 54 in ICU in Sydney (no idea of the UK stats) it does give a sense of being ready to live with covid. Sadly 11 unvaccinated people have died.

Sadly there is no approval for kids under 12 yet but as soon as there is my kids will be straight in there.

Bring on the vaccine passports.

ozzieeagle

50 pct of the deaths in the UK in the last month from Covid have been double vaccinated. Mostly elderly though.

https://www.livemint.com/science/hea...409387076.html

Beoz

It wants a subscription. Lets copy and paste what I can get to.

BATH (UK) : More vaccinated people are dying of COVID than unvaccinated people, according to a recent report from Public Health England (PHE). The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died of the delta variant within 28 days of a positive COVID test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine. At first glance, this may seem alarming, but it is exactly as would be expected.

ozzieeagle

It's definitely as they are expecting for sure. I have a more sensationlist headline via the Daily Fail from back in June as well, which can be taken with a pinch of salt here....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...cinations.html

I do have personal contact with people at St Helier in Epsom, Lewisham Hospital and Kings College in Camberwell and there are definitely a number of people that have had the double vaccine in all of those hospitals on ventilators. Best wait for the official figures on those at this stage though.

rabble_rouser

I'll never take this experimental "vaxx". Accepting it sets a precedent that's completely unacceptable to me.

Lion in Winter

Why do you think it's experimental? All the vaccines have been through thorough trials. Far and away more thorough than a load of other substances that you probably put into and onto yourself every day.

As for precedents:

Smallpox eradicated
Polio almost eradicated
Serious illness and death avoided with vaccines for: diptheria, whooping cough, tetanus, measles, hepatitis a, b & c, anthrax, HPV, rabies, tuberculosis, meningitis, cholera, pneumonia, and of course flu. And probably more.

That's millions of people, and no doubt all were met with doubters. My parents told me about the marketing campaign that was needed to get people to take the polio vaccine in the 50s, for example.

People not getting vaccinated are putting not only themselves at risk (their business) but others at risk (everyone's business) by creating a pool of unvaccinated people which is where the virus will continue to grow and mutate as it adjusts to evade our vaccines.

I know I've wandered into Australia, so I'll just wander out again, but this sort of statement needs answering.

I'll just leave this here.

https://apnews.com/article/coronavir...6e7354f5d5e187

"Nearly all COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. now are in people who weren’t vaccinated"

rabble_rouser

If you are pro vaxx thats ok with me. But try to keep a sense of perspective here.

I'm not anti vaxx in general as such either, particularly for serious disease, and where it works.

My two major objections are:

1) I have never believed in vaxxing against flu (or over medication in general). I'm not convinced this isn't just another flu blown out of proportion (many seem to forget how bad the flu can be).

2) This vaxx due to being rushed has a lot of problems and is setting dangerous precedents:-
Vaxx a) shouldn't kill people and b) shouldn't maim people and c) should provide inoculation.
We can see this is not currently the case.

We also have to wonder how far this will go - monthly top up jabs? Perhaps.
Forcing/coercing people to take dubious experimental medical procedures seems wrong to me, and unthinkable to most a couple years back.
Yet here we are.

Beoz

Why did you totally ignore Lion's article on death rates of those vaccinated and those not. It didn't suit your agenda?

themerlin

So you know how bad flu can be, yet don't believe in vaxxing agains it, how more anti vaxx can you be ?

rabble_rouser

Vaxxing against flu isn't great bang for buck for me. I get flu maybe what, once a year?
I prefer to build up a natual immunity and that works just fine. If you are susceptible then you can feel free to take a different approach OFC. Just don't try to push your agenda on others.