2016 Election
May 11th 2016, 9:54 pm
#7276
I love my brick!
Joined: May 2007
Location: Peachy
Posts: 9,304
Re: 2016 Election
The correlation between polling results gets worse as the time prior to the election increases.
You've also been selective in your use of numbers. Using averages of the last several Trump vs Clinton state polls per Real Clear Politics:
-Clinton leads Trump in Florida: RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Florida: Trump vs. Clinton
-Clinton leads Trump in Ohio: RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton
-Clinton leads Trump in Pennsylvania: RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton
I realize that you want to hang onto your "Sanders was more electable than Clinton" argument, but that's starting to sound like sour grapes, given the commanding lead that Clinton has in the Democratic primary popular vote tally.
You should also note that I would not use the polling results to conclude that Clinton is sure to win Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. As I noted before, it's too early.
You've also been selective in your use of numbers. Using averages of the last several Trump vs Clinton state polls per Real Clear Politics:
-Clinton leads Trump in Florida: RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Florida: Trump vs. Clinton
-Clinton leads Trump in Ohio: RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton
-Clinton leads Trump in Pennsylvania: RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton
I realize that you want to hang onto your "Sanders was more electable than Clinton" argument, but that's starting to sound like sour grapes, given the commanding lead that Clinton has in the Democratic primary popular vote tally.
You should also note that I would not use the polling results to conclude that Clinton is sure to win Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. As I noted before, it's too early.
As I said before in the primary Trump was dismissed as not having a chance for too long and then it was too late. Do you really want that to happen in the general election?
Sure the latest polls don't mean that Trump is now the favourite to win. But, the polls are tightening and what if that continues? How long are they dismissed? After the conventions if the polls are still tight, what will be the excuse then? Will they be polling the wrong type of voter?
May 11th 2016, 10:10 pm
#7279
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Thread Starter
Joined: Mar 2010
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Posts: 8,106
May 11th 2016, 10:16 pm
#7280
BE Forum Addict
Joined: May 2016
Location: Northern California
Posts: 2,277
Re: 2016 Election
Here's my dilemma, I really do not like Hillary Clinton but Trump even more so.
I know many feel the same as me, but there's something about the woman the gets under my skin. I feel obliged to vote for her as the alternative is catastrophic. For the top of the ticket I'm truly tempted to sit this one out. Only as a last resort if the thing looks close.
I claim the longest in the US. 50 years in Oct 2017
I know many feel the same as me, but there's something about the woman the gets under my skin. I feel obliged to vote for her as the alternative is catastrophic. For the top of the ticket I'm truly tempted to sit this one out. Only as a last resort if the thing looks close.
I claim the longest in the US. 50 years in Oct 2017
May 11th 2016, 10:33 pm
#7281
Bloody Yank
Joined: Oct 2005
Location: USA! USA!
Posts: 4,186
Re: 2016 Election
I simply noted that it's too early to rely heavily on polling data this early, particularly when one of the parties still hasn't selected its nominee. That observation has nothing to do with my hopes for the election.
May 11th 2016, 11:33 pm
#7282
WTF?
Joined: Aug 2003
Location: Homeostasis
Posts: 79,386
Re: 2016 Election
OK, does anyone else find it a little worrying that there are polls showing the contest between Trump and Clinton tightening, both in swing states and nationally. But what do all the pundits and poll "experts" do? Just dismiss is as nothing to worry about, "just a blip", "the poll assumes Ohio is too white", "don't worry the polling averages still show Clinton has a 1 point lead"
Fck me! This is exactly the type of complacency that meant we ended up with Trump as the nominee in the first place. Then there was a little mea culpa about that. Now they're doing the exact same thing again.
I think the only person to call them out on this that I know is Bill Maher.
God I hate the liberal pundits who scoff about conservatives having their own facts. Then they ignore the facts in front of them because their "gut" says they're wrong.
Fck me! This is exactly the type of complacency that meant we ended up with Trump as the nominee in the first place. Then there was a little mea culpa about that. Now they're doing the exact same thing again.
I think the only person to call them out on this that I know is Bill Maher.
God I hate the liberal pundits who scoff about conservatives having their own facts. Then they ignore the facts in front of them because their "gut" says they're wrong.
May 11th 2016, 11:42 pm
#7284
Deep in the woods of CT
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 7,005
Re: 2016 Election
Me too. Been a nervous wreck about this whole Trump thing for a year now. How anyone could even contemplate voting to put that narcissistic idiot in charge of the country beggars belief. And the "make America great again" jerks don't understand that the world has moved on. It's like having a "bring back the days of the Raj" movement in the UK. Aargh, I am so frustrated by what is going on it's hard to fully enunciate my disgust, but we should all be very afraid of the possibility of Trump getting elected.
May 11th 2016, 11:43 pm
#7285
WTF?
Joined: Aug 2003
Location: Homeostasis
Posts: 79,386
Re: 2016 Election
Me too. Been a nervous wreck about this whole Trump thing for a year now. How anyone could even contemplate voting to put that narcissistic idiot in charge of the country beggars belief. And the "make America great again" jerks don't understand that the world has moved on. It's like having a "bring back the days of the Raj" movement in the UK. Aargh, I am so frustrated by what is going on it's hard to fully enunciate my disgust, but we should all be very afraid of the possibility of Trump getting elected.
I. Shit. You. Not.
May 12th 2016, 1:00 am
#7286
Forum Regular
Joined: Apr 2016
Posts: 211
Re: 2016 Election
Here's my dilemma, I really do not like Hillary Clinton but Trump even more so.
I know many feel the same as me, but there's something about the woman the gets under my skin. I feel obliged to vote for her as the alternative is catastrophic. For the top of the ticket I'm truly tempted to sit this one out. Only as a last resort if the thing looks close.
I claim the longest in the US. 50 years in Oct 2017
I know many feel the same as me, but there's something about the woman the gets under my skin. I feel obliged to vote for her as the alternative is catastrophic. For the top of the ticket I'm truly tempted to sit this one out. Only as a last resort if the thing looks close.
I claim the longest in the US. 50 years in Oct 2017
I'm not much of a Hillary fan either but I think we need her to prompt the rebirth of the republican party. This country needs a sane opposition to keep the dems in check.
May 12th 2016, 1:05 am
#7287
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Thread Starter
Joined: Mar 2010
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Posts: 8,106
May 12th 2016, 1:13 am
#7288
I love my brick!
Joined: May 2007
Location: Peachy
Posts: 9,304
Re: 2016 Election
I read Scott Adams blog about Trump some time last year and it sort of made sense, but I didn't think it would happen. But so far he has been right.
This doesn't make me feel better.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/comic-riffs/wp/2016/03/21/donald-trump-will-win-in-a-landslide-the-mind-behind-dilbert-explains-why/
Trump has changed the game and I fear the media won't catch up until it's too late.
This doesn't make me feel better.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/comic-riffs/wp/2016/03/21/donald-trump-will-win-in-a-landslide-the-mind-behind-dilbert-explains-why/
Trump has changed the game and I fear the media won't catch up until it's too late.
May 12th 2016, 1:25 am
#7290
WTF?
Joined: Aug 2003
Location: Homeostasis
Posts: 79,386
Re: 2016 Election
I read Scott Adams blog about Trump some time last year and it sort of made sense, but I didn't think it would happen. But so far he has been right.
This doesn't make me feel better.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-explains-why/
Trump has changed the game and I fear the media won't catch up until it's too late.
This doesn't make me feel better.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-explains-why/
Trump has changed the game and I fear the media won't catch up until it's too late.
We do have to remember that the Latino vote is what killed Romney and Trump has been shitting in their Cheerios from jump. Oh and African Americans are not going to vote for Trump and they will get out the vote. Still, this is a complete nightmare.