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Upcoming Referendum

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Old Jun 25th 2016 | 3:55 am
  #166  
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by BritInParis
EU politicians, like the rest of us, are shellshocked by a result they never really expected. They called our bluff when Cameron went looking for reform ahead of the vote so the UK has just called theirs. As an institution it's currently teetering on the brink. Unless it finds a way to either drastically reform itself or introduce an associate 'EU-lite' option for the UK and others thinking of jumping ship then it's doomed. Business as usual is simply not an option.
Well, Boris's bluff maybe. You remember that he wanted a second referendum after a further renegotiation at first but then (seemed to) walk away from that? Now he's trying to punt invoking Article 50 into the long grass.

It's the UK as an institution that's tottering on the brink, not the EU.
 
Old Jun 25th 2016 | 4:27 am
  #167  
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by Novocastrian
Well, Boris's bluff maybe. You remember that he wanted a second referendum after a further renegotiation at first but then (seemed to) walk away from that? Now he's trying to punt invoking Article 50 into the long grass.
Perhaps but then no-one, not even Farage who conceded defeat as soon as the polls had closed, thought that Leave would win. Both Boris and Cameron's aims were the same - to use the referendum as a proxy war for leadership of the Conservative Party. Neither of them thought it would actually result in a change of status quo. Cameron only promised a referendum as he thought he would be back in a coalition government with the Lib Dems who would've vetoed it.

It's the UK as an institution that's tottering on the brink, not the EU.
All bets are off at the moment. Might be worth a punt on Trump being in the White House come 21st January.
 
Old Jun 25th 2016 | 7:20 am
  #168  
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by BritInParis
Perhaps but then no-one, not even Farage who conceded defeat as soon as the polls had closed, thought that Leave would win. Both Boris and Cameron's aims were the same - to use the referendum as a proxy war for leadership of the Conservative Party. Neither of them thought it would actually result in a change of status quo. Cameron only promised a referendum as he thought he would be back in a coalition government with the Lib Dems who would've vetoed it.
Cameron didn't. Boris thought hard and took a calculated gamble at the appropriate moment. You're right that Cameron, Johnson and Farage (and myself) thought Remain would win at 10 pm on the 23rd. So did the City.

All bets are off at the moment. Might be worth a punt on Trump being in the White House come 21st January.
This is a problem, but not so directly mine.
 
Old Jun 25th 2016 | 1:59 pm
  #169  
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by Novocastrian
Cameron didn't. Boris thought hard and took a calculated gamble at the appropriate moment. You're right that Cameron, Johnson and Farage (and myself) thought Remain would win at 10 pm on the 23rd. So did the City.
You only had to take a look at Boris' face when he gave his 'victory' speech yesterday that he suddenly realised the enormity of what he had done. Blind panic springs to mind.
 
Old Jun 25th 2016 | 4:09 pm
  #170  
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Well, the s**t has definitely hit the fan. Britain is in turmoil. How far will the pound drop, remembering many British people live abroad and rely on steady, reasonable exchange rates.
 
Old Jun 25th 2016 | 8:18 pm
  #171  
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by Barrybriggs
Well, the s**t has definitely hit the fan. Britain is in turmoil. How far will the pound drop, remembering many British people live abroad and rely on steady, reasonable exchange rates.
One prediction I read said that it will reach parity with the Euro.
 
Old Jun 26th 2016 | 1:52 am
  #172  
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

The pound has come back some already. It's where it was Last week from what I can tell.
I think it's over inflated anyway, makes it hard for exports.
A lower pound would be good for us exporting and for attracting more visitors from other countries. Not so good for retirees living elsewhere.
Lots of histrionics online on some other sites. Woah is me, we're all going to hell in a hand basket and It's all the fault of the older generations sticking it to the younger ones who are throwing their toys out of the pram and calling for another vote. Democracy isn't their strong point when they don't get their own way.
 
Old Jun 26th 2016 | 3:39 am
  #173  
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by Mummy in the foothills
The pound has come back some already. It's where it was Last week from what I can tell.
I think it's over inflated anyway, makes it hard for exports.
A lower pound would be good for us exporting and for attracting more visitors from other countries. Not so good for retirees living elsewhere.
Lots of histrionics online on some other sites. Woah is me, we're all going to hell in a hand basket and It's all the fault of the older generations sticking it to the younger ones who are throwing their toys out of the pram and calling for another vote. Democracy isn't their strong point when they don't get their own way.
Use this handy link to check the state of sterling against other currencies.

https://www.oanda.com/solutions-for-...-beta/hcc.html
 
Old Jun 26th 2016 | 3:57 am
  #174  
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by rebeccajo
Use this handy link to check the state of sterling against other currencies.
Yes, they pretty much all look like this, falling more in one day than over ten days of falling leading to the vote.
Attached Thumbnails Upcoming Referendum-currency.jpg  
 
Old Jun 26th 2016 | 7:21 am
  #175  
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by Mummy in the foothills
The pound has come back some already. It's where it was Last week from what I can tell.
I think it's over inflated anyway, makes it hard for exports.
A lower pound would be good for us exporting and for attracting more visitors from other countries. Not so good for retirees living elsewhere.
Lots of histrionics online on some other sites. Woah is me, we're all going to hell in a hand basket and It's all the fault of the older generations sticking it to the younger ones who are throwing their toys out of the pram and calling for another vote. Democracy isn't their strong point when they don't get their own way.
Of course there are also the problems that a weak pound stokes inflation, as imports, including oil become more expensive to buy.
 
Old Jun 26th 2016 | 10:55 am
  #176  
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by Novocastrian
Fair enough.

Look, I was of the same opinion as you have, namely that the whole thing has been a pointless exercise because after a No vote the UK would remain in the EEA. It begins to look as if there are important elements in the EU who are so pissed off with the UK and so afraid of spreading contagion into several other countries, that this fall back will not be an option now.
Boris has just confirmed our suspicions.

I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe – and always will be
 
Old Jun 26th 2016 | 11:27 am
  #177  
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by BritInParis
British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market. Britain is and always will be a great European power, offering top-table opinions and giving leadership on everything from foreign policy to defence to counter-terrorism and intelligence-sharing – all the things we need to do together to make our world safer.

The only change – and it will not come in any great rush – is that the UK will extricate itself from the EU’s extraordinary and opaque system of legislation: the vast and growing corpus of law enacted by a European Court of Justice from which there can be no appeal. This will bring not threats, but golden opportunities for this country – to pass laws and set taxes according to the needs of the UK.
Not in the way they can currently do as EU nationals. For example, there are vast differences between the amount of documentation required for EU nationals to live, work and purchase property in Malta than there is for non-EU nationals. It's likely to be so in other EU countries too.

Unless EU free movement is still part of a post-Brexit deal, the claim (though correct) lacks transparency that it won't be a simple matter anymore.


As the direct beneficiary of ECJ case law, I think the ECJ does a pretty good job. UK court can ask to ECJ for it's opinion but can choose to either accept that opinion or ignore it.
 
Old Jun 26th 2016 | 11:30 am
  #178  
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee
Not in the way they can currently do as EU nationals. For example, there are vast differences between the amount of documentation required for EU nationals to live, work and purchase property in Malta than there is for non-EU nationals. It's likely to be so in other EU countries too.

Unless EU free movement is still part of a post-Brexit deal, the claim (though correct) lacks transparency that it won't be a simple matter anymore.


As the direct beneficiary of ECJ case law, I think the ECJ does a pretty good job. UK court can ask to ECJ for it's opinion but can choose to either accept that opinion or ignore it.
The way I read it is that we're going to remain within the EEA like Norway or cut a bilateral deal like Switzerland so nothing practical is going to change.
 
Old Jun 26th 2016 | 11:37 am
  #179  
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by BritInParis
The way I read it is that we're going to remain within the EEA like Norway or cut a bilateral deal like Switzerland so nothing practical is going to change.
Other than we lose our EU Council of Ministers' seat, our EU Commissioner's seat, and our 73 MEP seats. And all of our input into drafting and changing EU regulations.....

And that's taking our country back apparently.....
 
Old Jun 26th 2016 | 11:39 am
  #180  
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee
Other than we lose our EU Council of Ministers' seat, our EU Commissioner's seat, and our 73 MEP seats. And all of our input into drafting and changing EU regulations.....

And that's taking our country back apparently.....
Well, yeah, it's still the biggest British political cock-up since Suez
 


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