Upcoming Referendum

Old Jun 25th 2016, 7:03 am
  #151  
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by Editha View Post
Well just a few consequences of leaving the EU:

The recession will be extended by at least 4 years, necessitating even greater cuts in public spending. It is unlikely that the NHS, already in crisis, will not be affected.

Pensioner ex-pats living in EU countries will no longer receive the annual increase to their state pension. This is in addition to losing health care benefits and the fall in the pound reducing the value of their sterling pensions. Watch this forum for the cries of pain.

It will take around ten years for our trade agreements with the rest of the world to be negotiated, during which time our economy will suffer.

The Scottish Nationalists will demand another referendum, and this time are likely to win it. Additionally, the consequences for Ulster politics are likely to be dire. So, the break up of the United Kingdom is probable.

So, we'll all be worse off financially, our country will shrink in significance on the world stage, and we'll have political turmoil, but hey, we'll have our 'sovereignty' back and nobody can force us to eat straight bananas!
The UK is not in recession. And even if it was the EU has never prevented recession, ask Greece or Spain. And indeed I can remember recessions in the UK in the 80s, 90s, naughties and this decade too.

Scottish Nationalists can demand a second referendum all it wants but it has just had one and it is not going to get another. Scottish Nationalists needs to start accepting democracy, that is two referendums they have lost and they are still bleating on.

I doubt very much that the UK will ever be insignificant on the world stage. However even if it was, I could not care less about posturing on the world stage. I care more about democracy and being able to vote in or out those governing me. I find it very odd that anyone thinks that living in a democracy is less important than size on the world stage.
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Old Jun 25th 2016, 7:11 am
  #152  
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by Bermudashorts View Post
Scottish Nationalists can demand a second referendum all it wants but it has just had one and it is not going to get another. Scottish Nationalists needs to start accepting democracy, that is two referendums they have lost and they are still bleating on.
How did they "lose" this referendum when the country they represent - Scotland - voted overwhelmingly for remain?
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Old Jun 25th 2016, 10:30 am
  #153  
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

The UK is not in recession. And even if it was the EU has never prevented recession, ask Greece or Spain. And indeed I can remember recessions in the UK in the 80s, 90s, naughties and this decade too.
Economists have predicted that Brexit will push the UK into recession. So far, they appear to be correct.

Scottish Nationalists can demand a second referendum all it wants but it has just had one and it is not going to get another. Scottish Nationalists needs to start accepting democracy, that is two referendums they have lost and they are still bleating on.
Since the SNP is in power in Scotland, it is difficult to see what would prevent them holding a referendum unilaterally, even if they don't get the agreement of Westminster.

Last edited by Editha; Jun 25th 2016 at 10:48 am.
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Old Jun 25th 2016, 11:38 am
  #154  
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Possible unintended consequences of this short-sighted Brexit vote ?




1. Unification of Ireland
2. Scottish Independence
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Old Jun 25th 2016, 12:41 pm
  #155  
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by Giantaxe View Post
How did they "lose" this referendum when the country they represent - Scotland - voted overwhelmingly for remain?
Because they voted to remain part of the UK, and the UK voted to leave the EU.

If they had wanted their decisions made in Scotland they should have voted to leave when they had the chance.
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Old Jun 25th 2016, 12:44 pm
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by Editha View Post
Economists have predicted that Brexit will push the UK into recession. So far, they appear to be correct.
A one day panic because economists got their predictions wrong does not make it a recession. Yes currency dropped, and shares dropped - they've done it before and I'm sure they'll do it again. But I'm sure they'll recover once everyone realises the sky is not falling.
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Old Jun 25th 2016, 12:56 pm
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by old.sparkles View Post
A one day panic because economists got their predictions wrong does not make it a recession. Yes currency dropped, and shares dropped - they've done it before and I'm sure they'll do it again. But I'm sure they'll recover once everyone realises the sky is not falling.
In what way did economists get their predictions wrong? I don't follow you.
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Old Jun 25th 2016, 1:10 pm
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by Editha View Post
In what way did economists get their predictions wrong? I don't follow you.
Sorry - probably posting a little without thinking. I think it was everybody else that thought that the UK would vote to remain.

If the economists have predicted that a leave vote will see the UK in a recession, then that is their prediction but a one day tumble does not make a recessions, and if the UK does end up in a recession in the future then who's to say it wouldn't have happened anyway. Not sure where the UK economy stands at the moment but by all accounts it's been doing well. Other economies have had it harder and not because of a leave vote.

Wherever the economy goes it's too early to be saying the economists are right is what I think I'm trying to say.
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Old Jun 25th 2016, 1:44 pm
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by BritInParis View Post
Nothing is going to change for at least two years save agitation for another Scottish independence referendum.
Riiight. Cameron's gone or should be. Boris vs Theresa at Madison Square Garden over 15 rounds to decide which of them will eviscerate all the legal goodies the evil furriners have foisted on poor little England over the years.

What's going to happen when the Ukippers realise they've been sold a crock of shit? Or when NI joins Eire alongside Scotland in staying in the EU?

Oh, nothing much.
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Old Jun 25th 2016, 1:57 pm
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by Novocastrian View Post
Riiight. Cameron's gone or should be. Boris vs Theresa at Madison Square Garden over 15 rounds to decide which of them will eviscerate all the legal goodies the evil furriners have foisted on poor little England over the years.

What's going to happen when the Ukippers realise they've been sold a crock of shit? Or when NI joins Eire alongside Scotland in staying in the EU?

Oh, nothing much.
Helpfully you've ignored all the changes that not2old suggested were going to happen immediately or in the very near future in his post I was replying to
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Old Jun 25th 2016, 2:11 pm
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Westminster will not endorse a second Scottish Independence Referendum, but that does not prevent the Scots holding one anyway. Before the EU Referendum, opinion polls showed that the majority of Scots would support independence in the event of Brexit.

If the referendum showed a clear majority in favour of independence, then the political pressure on Westminster to accept the result would be enormous.
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Old Jun 25th 2016, 2:17 pm
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by Editha View Post
Westminster will not endorse a second Scottish Independence Referendum, but that does not prevent the Scots holding one anyway. Before the EU Referendum, opinion polls showed that the majority of Scots would support independence in the event of Brexit.

If the referendum showed a clear majority in favour of independence, then the political pressure on Westminster to accept the result would be enormous.
That was before the crash in the price of oil made the Scots realise that the SNP's economic argument for an independent Scotland ('let's be Norway!') was hokum. Sturgeon will need to be absolutely sure that will win another referendum to call one else there won't be another one for at least 40 years.
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Old Jun 25th 2016, 3:02 pm
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by BritInParis View Post
Helpfully you've ignored all the changes that not2old suggested were going to happen immediately or in the very near future in his post I was replying to
Fair enough.

Look, I was of the same opinion as you have, namely that the whole thing has been a pointless exercise because after a No vote the UK would remain in the EEA. It begins to look as if there are important elements in the EU who are so pissed off with the UK and so afraid of spreading contagion into several other countries, that this fall back will not be an option now.
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Old Jun 25th 2016, 3:34 pm
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by BritInParis View Post
That was before the crash in the price of oil made the Scots realise that the SNP's economic argument for an independent Scotland ('let's be Norway!') was hokum. Sturgeon will need to be absolutely sure that will win another referendum to call one else there won't be another one for at least 40 years.
There were five opinion polls between January and April 2016, which asked Scots whether they would vote for independence in the event of Brexit. All five showed a majority for independence.

Since the UK has just voted for Brexit, despite the weight of expert opinion being overwhelmingly that it is against the UK's economic interests, I see no reason to assume that economic self-interest always trumps other factors.
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Old Jun 25th 2016, 4:05 pm
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Default Re: Upcoming Referendum

Originally Posted by Novocastrian View Post
Fair enough.

Look, I was of the same opinion as you have, namely that the whole thing has been a pointless exercise because after a No vote the UK would remain in the EEA. It begins to look as if there are important elements in the EU who are so pissed off with the UK and so afraid of spreading contagion into several other countries, that this fall back will not be an option now.
EU politicians, like the rest of us, are shellshocked by a result they never really expected. They called our bluff when Cameron went looking for reform ahead of the vote so the UK has just called theirs. As an institution it's currently teetering on the brink. Unless it finds a way to either drastically reform itself or introduce an associate 'EU-lite' option for the UK and others thinking of jumping ship then it's doomed. Business as usual is simply not an option.

Originally Posted by Editha View Post
There were five opinion polls between January and April 2016, which asked Scots whether they would vote for independence in the event of Brexit. All five showed a majority for independence.

Since the UK has just voted for Brexit, despite the weight of expert opinion being overwhelmingly that it is against the UK's economic interests, I see no reason to assume that economic self-interest always trumps other factors.
A million Scots just voted to leave the EU and another 900,000 couldn't be bothered to vote at all. The SNP certainly wants to remain in the EU but I would suggest on the hard facts that the Scottish people aren't as wholeheartedly in favour of it as has been suggested.
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