Upcoming Referendum
Jun 24th 2016 | 6:03 pm
#151
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 14,284
From: UK
Re: Upcoming Referendum
Well just a few consequences of leaving the EU:
The recession will be extended by at least 4 years, necessitating even greater cuts in public spending. It is unlikely that the NHS, already in crisis, will not be affected.
Pensioner ex-pats living in EU countries will no longer receive the annual increase to their state pension. This is in addition to losing health care benefits and the fall in the pound reducing the value of their sterling pensions. Watch this forum for the cries of pain.
It will take around ten years for our trade agreements with the rest of the world to be negotiated, during which time our economy will suffer.
The Scottish Nationalists will demand another referendum, and this time are likely to win it. Additionally, the consequences for Ulster politics are likely to be dire. So, the break up of the United Kingdom is probable.
So, we'll all be worse off financially, our country will shrink in significance on the world stage, and we'll have political turmoil, but hey, we'll have our 'sovereignty' back and nobody can force us to eat straight bananas!
The recession will be extended by at least 4 years, necessitating even greater cuts in public spending. It is unlikely that the NHS, already in crisis, will not be affected.
Pensioner ex-pats living in EU countries will no longer receive the annual increase to their state pension. This is in addition to losing health care benefits and the fall in the pound reducing the value of their sterling pensions. Watch this forum for the cries of pain.
It will take around ten years for our trade agreements with the rest of the world to be negotiated, during which time our economy will suffer.
The Scottish Nationalists will demand another referendum, and this time are likely to win it. Additionally, the consequences for Ulster politics are likely to be dire. So, the break up of the United Kingdom is probable.
So, we'll all be worse off financially, our country will shrink in significance on the world stage, and we'll have political turmoil, but hey, we'll have our 'sovereignty' back and nobody can force us to eat straight bananas!
Scottish Nationalists can demand a second referendum all it wants but it has just had one and it is not going to get another. Scottish Nationalists needs to start accepting democracy, that is two referendums they have lost and they are still bleating on.
I doubt very much that the UK will ever be insignificant on the world stage. However even if it was, I could not care less about posturing on the world stage. I care more about democracy and being able to vote in or out those governing me. I find it very odd that anyone thinks that living in a democracy is less important than size on the world stage.
Jun 24th 2016 | 6:11 pm
#152
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 13,212
From: San Francisco
Re: Upcoming Referendum
How did they "lose" this referendum when the country they represent - Scotland - voted overwhelmingly for remain?
Jun 24th 2016 | 9:30 pm
#153
Was in Canada, now home.
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3,388
From: Devon
Re: Upcoming Referendum
The UK is not in recession. And even if it was the EU has never prevented recession, ask Greece or Spain. And indeed I can remember recessions in the UK in the 80s, 90s, naughties and this decade too.
Scottish Nationalists can demand a second referendum all it wants but it has just had one and it is not going to get another. Scottish Nationalists needs to start accepting democracy, that is two referendums they have lost and they are still bleating on.
Last edited by Editha; Jun 24th 2016 at 9:48 pm.
Jun 24th 2016 | 10:38 pm
#154
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 9,740
From: bute
Re: Upcoming Referendum
Possible unintended consequences of this short-sighted Brexit vote ?
1. Unification of Ireland
2. Scottish Independence
1. Unification of Ireland
2. Scottish Independence
Jun 24th 2016 | 11:41 pm
#155
MODERATOR
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 31,932
From: Adelaide
Re: Upcoming Referendum
If they had wanted their decisions made in Scotland they should have voted to leave when they had the chance.
Jun 24th 2016 | 11:44 pm
#156
MODERATOR
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 31,932
From: Adelaide
Re: Upcoming Referendum
Economists have predicted that Brexit will push the UK into recession. So far, they appear to be correct.
Jun 24th 2016 | 11:56 pm
#157
Was in Canada, now home.
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3,388
From: Devon
Re: Upcoming Referendum
A one day panic because economists got their predictions wrong does not make it a recession. Yes currency dropped, and shares dropped - they've done it before and I'm sure they'll do it again. But I'm sure they'll recover once everyone realises the sky is not falling.
Jun 25th 2016 | 12:10 am
#158
MODERATOR
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 31,932
From: Adelaide
Re: Upcoming Referendum
If the economists have predicted that a leave vote will see the UK in a recession, then that is their prediction but a one day tumble does not make a recessions, and if the UK does end up in a recession in the future then who's to say it wouldn't have happened anyway. Not sure where the UK economy stands at the moment but by all accounts it's been doing well. Other economies have had it harder and not because of a leave vote.
Wherever the economy goes it's too early to be saying the economists are right is what I think I'm trying to say.
Jun 25th 2016 | 12:44 am
#159
Born again atheist
Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 30,259
From: Europe (to be specified).
Re: Upcoming Referendum
What's going to happen when the Ukippers realise they've been sold a crock of shit? Or when NI joins Eire alongside Scotland in staying in the EU?
Oh, nothing much.
Jun 25th 2016 | 12:57 am
#160
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 18,800
From: Not in Paris
Re: Upcoming Referendum
Riiight. Cameron's gone or should be. Boris vs Theresa at Madison Square Garden over 15 rounds to decide which of them will eviscerate all the legal goodies the evil furriners have foisted on poor little England over the years.
What's going to happen when the Ukippers realise they've been sold a crock of shit? Or when NI joins Eire alongside Scotland in staying in the EU?
Oh, nothing much.
What's going to happen when the Ukippers realise they've been sold a crock of shit? Or when NI joins Eire alongside Scotland in staying in the EU?
Oh, nothing much.
Jun 25th 2016 | 1:11 am
#161
Was in Canada, now home.
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3,388
From: Devon
Re: Upcoming Referendum
Westminster will not endorse a second Scottish Independence Referendum, but that does not prevent the Scots holding one anyway. Before the EU Referendum, opinion polls showed that the majority of Scots would support independence in the event of Brexit.
If the referendum showed a clear majority in favour of independence, then the political pressure on Westminster to accept the result would be enormous.
If the referendum showed a clear majority in favour of independence, then the political pressure on Westminster to accept the result would be enormous.
Jun 25th 2016 | 1:17 am
#162
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 18,800
From: Not in Paris
Re: Upcoming Referendum
Westminster will not endorse a second Scottish Independence Referendum, but that does not prevent the Scots holding one anyway. Before the EU Referendum, opinion polls showed that the majority of Scots would support independence in the event of Brexit.
If the referendum showed a clear majority in favour of independence, then the political pressure on Westminster to accept the result would be enormous.
If the referendum showed a clear majority in favour of independence, then the political pressure on Westminster to accept the result would be enormous.
Jun 25th 2016 | 2:02 am
#163
Born again atheist
Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 30,259
From: Europe (to be specified).
Re: Upcoming Referendum
Helpfully you've ignored all the changes that not2old suggested were going to happen immediately or in the very near future in his post I was replying to
Look, I was of the same opinion as you have, namely that the whole thing has been a pointless exercise because after a No vote the UK would remain in the EEA. It begins to look as if there are important elements in the EU who are so pissed off with the UK and so afraid of spreading contagion into several other countries, that this fall back will not be an option now.
Jun 25th 2016 | 2:34 am
#164
Was in Canada, now home.
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3,388
From: Devon
Re: Upcoming Referendum
That was before the crash in the price of oil made the Scots realise that the SNP's economic argument for an independent Scotland ('let's be Norway!') was hokum. Sturgeon will need to be absolutely sure that will win another referendum to call one else there won't be another one for at least 40 years.
Since the UK has just voted for Brexit, despite the weight of expert opinion being overwhelmingly that it is against the UK's economic interests, I see no reason to assume that economic self-interest always trumps other factors.
Jun 25th 2016 | 3:05 am
#165
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 18,800
From: Not in Paris
Re: Upcoming Referendum
Fair enough.
Look, I was of the same opinion as you have, namely that the whole thing has been a pointless exercise because after a No vote the UK would remain in the EEA. It begins to look as if there are important elements in the EU who are so pissed off with the UK and so afraid of spreading contagion into several other countries, that this fall back will not be an option now.
Look, I was of the same opinion as you have, namely that the whole thing has been a pointless exercise because after a No vote the UK would remain in the EEA. It begins to look as if there are important elements in the EU who are so pissed off with the UK and so afraid of spreading contagion into several other countries, that this fall back will not be an option now.
There were five opinion polls between January and April 2016, which asked Scots whether they would vote for independence in the event of Brexit. All five showed a majority for independence.
Since the UK has just voted for Brexit, despite the weight of expert opinion being overwhelmingly that it is against the UK's economic interests, I see no reason to assume that economic self-interest always trumps other factors.
Since the UK has just voted for Brexit, despite the weight of expert opinion being overwhelmingly that it is against the UK's economic interests, I see no reason to assume that economic self-interest always trumps other factors.
