Bud the Wiser

To add weight to my point on why I think the crime figures are at best misleading or, as I suspect, manipulated for political convenience, google the phrase....

falsified UK crime figures


.... from there you'll find several reports, over several years, from a wide range of sources and published in a variety of publications, which cast doubt on the 'official' statistics.

Grayling

You are a trier Bud....I'll give you that

I suspect most have realised what you are up to by now....why not move on?

chris955

The thing is there are lots reports that fully support the fact that crime is dropping in most Western nations including the UK. I suppose it is possible to only look for reports that say they are dropping less than reported or be pleased that they are dropping, which is a fact. Independent reports show that.
I have nothing against Bud personally, I doubt I will ever meet him in the UK afterall but his posts do come across as trolling unfortunately.

Mummy in the foothills

Listening to the radio coming home the other day and they were talking about crime and said that the figures on crimes in North Wales are now at their lowest in 30 years . No idea where that came from or what numbers they were looking at, but even if the numbers were the same it would be good as there are so many more people living here now.

bigglesworth

You may be right, Bud, that they were manipulated for political convenience, but I think you will find that you have the time frame and the culprits wrongly identified.

When Tim Holt refused to redraw some of the economic cycle indicators for Gordon Brown , he was kicked out and Gordon Brown appointed Len Cook head of the ONS in 2000. Even he proved too independent, so he removed him, against public opposition from the Bank of England in 2005.

During Labours period in office, they redrew nearly all the elements on which the traditional runs of statistics were based, to show whatever particular policy announcement they came up with in a good light. (Think Golden Rule,48 quarters of continuous growth or whatever garbage it was Mr Brown used to spout). Unfortunately, because they recast 1997 as Year Zero, the long run data series have often been rendered unintelligible to anyone other than a really serious statistician. Unless of course you happen to be an old dinosaur, who likes paper

Nearly all of those have been re-calculated, which is one reason pronouncements often seem to be at odds with the "facts" we remember.

Crime has always been more open to manipulation than most, as it is one of the last areas where the metrics come from those whose success is measured (and rewarded) by their management of the factors being measured.
Now that central and local authorities re trying to control the production of crime figures themselves, they will become ever more variable. (And probably unreliable).

You are confusing past inaccuracy with present trends. There certainly does appear to be a consistent downward trend in crime across the developed world, for about twenty years. (There may be in SSA etc too, but numbers are harder to come by).

Several explanations have been advanced - from the pragmatic- better prevention- to some that seem bizarre. My favourite is that it coincides with the removal of lead from petrol!

Bud the Wiser

Thanks for that. A good read. I didn't know about Gordon Brown's antics. It pays to be skeptical of government produced statistics, whether they be crime stats, unemployment numbers, hospital waiting lists, immigration numbers, illegal or legal and, of course economic data. They're not going to push numbers at you if it doesn't show the government in power in a favourable light. Only going to get worse as we approach the election, with the spin doctors working over time to get the electorate to believe that they deserve another term in Downing Street.

I'm not disputing that there is a tend across developed nations that RECORDED crime is going down, I'm challenging the validity of the actual figures and whether the have been, for want of a better word, fiddled.

I'm not a criminologist, but for me, any movement, up or down, in the crime stats, is, in the main, directly related to prosperity. With the past two decades seeing a rise in prosperity for most developed countries*, I would expect crime stats to go down. Once austerity measures kick in, the welfare budget is cut and peoples standard of living begins to drop we may well see a gradual increase in crime.

* How that prosperity was achieved is another debate.

chris955

More good positive news for the economy. Things are definitely moving in the right direction.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25926648

fuchs01

To me it only counts when mr avg position and welfare shows, a spark of life in improving, and benifits for the right reasons goes down.
No BS using the word eventually, false dawns have been a plenty. !!!!

Perth

Chris, wanted to take a moment to thank you for always being the bearer of good news. Are you sure you are British

Seriously though, I for one appreciate your continuous optimism. One gets so tired of the relentless gloom and doom...

chris955

Well the way I see it there are plenty that are only to happy to spread the doom and gloom, usually those who dont live in the UK or have plans to move here
I have been criticised in the past for being overly optimistic, bizarre I know but it happens.
I must say though that with the obvious recovery in the economy I am seeing much more optimism

Bud the Wiser

Not bad at all.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...Lion-King.html

Always pick up a show when we're back in London. Seen three of those listed.

Wicked - was OK.

We will rock you - Brilliant.

Book of Mormon - Surprisingly good.

Must see the Lion King sometime.

BeenTrainingDogs

The worst things about the UK are the politics, the right-wing, the overpopulation and the fact things are only going to get worse.

fuchs01

You got something wrong....If scots get their Independence,
Overpopulation will be over, we cunning English, will tell would be immigrants,

Plenty room at the top, Scotland. GOOD JOBS ,hotels, ship building, and not forgetting
the oil industry. Rebuilding projects like Hadrians wall. Plenty of space and land that goes on forever ,friendly people, food a plenty, rivers awash with fish.Good deer hunting, and sasanach baiting.
If it gets too cold, use the new benches that get renewed every year, for firewood.
Oh the right wing parties have no chance in Scotland, so your safe.
God it sounds like heaven, I'm applying myself in September.

chris955

Mortgage approvals show a healthy increase in 2013.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25958796

scot47

Book a holiday in the Central African Republic or the Ukraine. When you come back, Britain really will be wonderful ! Or try the Southern Sudan. For that matter most of the countries on Planet Earth !