"XOR" <[email protected]> a écrit dans le message news:
[email protected]...
    > Mxsmanic <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:<[email protected]>. ..
    > > Jim Morris writes:
    > >
    > > > TO LISTEN TO THE FUSS Europeans are making about their weather,
    > > > anyone would think that it was actually hot over there.
    > >
    > > It is, or it was. Up to 110-115° F on the street, with a record of 117°
    > > F in the shade in Portugal. Indoor temperatures were often higher.
    > > Humidity remained high at the same time, and there was no wind.
    > How many people died in Portugal?
    > 13,000?

1,300 according to the Portuguese authorities. Population in Portugal is
around 10 millions, so it roughly corresponds to the death rate in France.
As for Spain, this is from BBC news website : "The Spanish revised its
estimate upwards from 46 to 100 on Wednesday, but unofficial reports say the
true figure could be closer to 1,000. The government was reported on
Thursday to have ordered a comprehensive study on how heat affects death
rates. "

JPh

devil writes:

    > Chicago in summer, not warm?

That's not what I said. I said that Chicago is not a warm climate.

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Gregory Morrow writes:

    > Dying Alone
    >
    > An interview with Eric Klinenberg
    >
    > author of Heat Wave: A Social Autopsy of Disaster in Chicago

This all sounds just like what I've been reading over the past few days
in reference to Paris.

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XOR writes:

    > Do apartment units in Paris not have windows?

They do, but often only on one side, and that is usually useless in high
heat.

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Jenn writes:

    > you don't need to air condition homes in areas
    > where it is rarely hot --

You need to air-condition in high heat. It doesn't matter how rare that
heat is; when it's there, it's there.

    > you do need cool places people can go in an emergency
    > as I noted

They may be difficult to find, if people reason as you do.

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XOR writes:

    > For starters, maybe don't go away on holiday whilst grandma is baking
    > in he flat, left to do her own shopping, walking around the city, etc
    > (I recognise this may be a cultural issue).

Why not just air-condition grandma's flat?

    > Provide fans.

Fans don't work in high heat and humidity, and they promote severe
dehydration, something that must be avoided in the elderly.

    > Identify the elderly - who are at risk and make sure
    > they have what they need - water, rehydrating solutions (this is the
    > MAIN cause of heatstroke) ...

And most important of all, air conditioning.

    > Surely these people had neighbors???

Neighbors usually don't communicate in France, and in this case they
would have been on vacation, anyway. Also, many elderly people have no
close family, either.

Worse yet, many of these elderly were in rest homes and _were_ being
watched. But when it's 110° F in the room with high humidity and no air
movement, watching them won't help, except to get a more accurate time
of death. Some rest homes had several deaths in one day.

    > Someone to do their shopping so they didn't have
    > to exert energy.

Being sedentary doesn't work beyond a certain point.

    > Bring ice. Bring water.

These do not work beyond a certain point.

    > Make sure there is adequate ventilation - surely there are windows???

Only on one side, usually. And ventilation does not work beyond a
certain point.

    > Open up air conditioned buildings to the public.

What air-conditioned buildings?

    > Hey, Mxsmanic, since you have a/c in your place, did you
    > invite all your elderly neighbours over throughout the heat
    > wave, to help them get thru it?

No. If they want air conditioning, they can buy it themselves. But
they shouldn't need it, since they've always considered it a decadent,
useless luxury.

    > I would assume 13000 can't all fit in to your flat, but I presume yours
    > was open to any one and everyone who needed it.

You presume incorrectly. I suggest that anyone wishing to survive a
heat wave install air conditioning.

    > Perhaps you saved 50, or 100 of your neighbors?

Actually, since each person is about 120 watts of additional heat, even
one more person in the room would have a serious negative effect on the
environment. One hundred people would be 12,000 watts of heat, enough
to roast them all alive in my apartment, with or without air
conditioning.

    > Because of course you know all your elderly
    > neighbours and look out for them.

I care nothing about my neighbors.

    > Shift schedules - work in the evening, open shops in the evening, so
    > people can get to them when it's cooler out.

Unions, the government, employers, and even workers themselves are
opposed to that.

    > *Change of lifestyle*. A/c merely allows you to continue a temperate
    > lifestyle in a totally artificial environment.

No, it allows you to function under conditions of heat that would
otherwise kill or incapacitate you.

    > It doesn't always work because it is dependent upon other
    > resources not *always* available.

As long as there is electricity, it works.

    > All of the above are minimally taxing on the environment, extremely
    > inexpensive, and easily put into place in extreme, but rare
    > circumstances.

The only problem is that they won't work.

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In article <[email protected] >, XOR
<[email protected]> writes
    >Mxsmanic <[email protected]> wrote in message
    >news:<[email protected]> ...
    >> Jenn writes:
    >> > The mistake in Paris was in not heeding public health officials who
    >> > warned of the potential for disaster and doing something about it.
    >> Just exactly what could anyone have done about it?
    >For starters, maybe don't go away on holiday whilst grandma is baking
    >in he flat, left to do her own shopping, walking around the city, etc
    >(I recognise this may be a cultural issue).

It is.
    >Provide fans. Identify the elderly - who are at risk and make sure
    >they have what they need - water, rehydrating solutions (this is the
    >MAIN cause of heatstroke), make sure there is someone to check on
    >them. Surely these people had neighbors???

Probably also on holiday.
    >Someone to do their
    >shopping so they didn't have to exert energy. Bring ice. Bring water.
    >Make sure there is adequate ventilation - surely there are windows???
    >Open up air conditioned buildings to the public. Hey, Mxsmanic, since
    >you have a/c in your place, did you invite all your elderly neighbours
    >over throughout the heat wave, to help them get thru it? You asked
    >what one would do to 'save the 13000 people" in the next heat wave. I
    >would assume 13000 can't all fit in to your flat, but I presume yours
    >was open to any one and everyone who needed it. Perhaps you saved 50,
    >or 100 of your neighbors? Because of course you know all your elderly
    >neighbours and look out for them.

Good for you!
    >Shift schedules - work in the evening, open shops in the evening, so
    >people can get to them when it's cooler out. I recall in Spain, at
    >first I thought it out to see kids (and their parents) out on the
    >playgrounds at midnight. But then quickly realised that when it's 40C
    >midday, no one wants to exert much energy. Then this made perfect
    >sense.

But the heat is a regular thing in Spain: this would not work in France,
anyway because you cannot change workers' schedules just like that. The
unions are strong and remember the 35 hour week.

--
Marie Lewis

Jenn writes:

    > the stores ran out of them -- so the public health officials should have
    > seen that they were acquired and available

How would they do this after the stores ran out of them? They could not
foresee the heat wave.

    > I spent much of the heat wave in Paris at the Louvre, and
    > the Pompidou and d'Orsay -- and in movie theaters at Les
    > Halles -- all of these places are very big and air conditoned.

They cannot hold any significant fraction of the population, nor can
they provide lodging (the heat doesn't go away during the night).
Additionally, the extra heat of thousands of human bodies will rapidly
overwhelm air conditioning systems that are not designed for that
capacity.

    > Busing elderly in overheated fanless apartments to any of
    > these places during the afternoon might have helped some.

Where would they stay? Who would feed them? Who would care for them?
And what would be done with them during the rest of the day and night?
The heat was not limited to the afternoon.

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XOR writes:

    > But this is where the govt comes in I think. Get in action to import
    > them from somewhere not similarly affected, asap ...

All of Europe was affected.

    > ... and deliver them to the elderly.

So that they can dehydrate and die more quickly?

    > I wouldn't expect the elderly people to *have* to go out
    > to buy them. Not a perfect solution,but something that can and should
    > be done in such a crisis.

Not a solution at all. Many elderly people don't drink enough water.
Fans will dehydrate them in no time, and they'll die of that in short
order. Their living quarters must be actively cooled.

    > Mxsmanic asked what could be done. This is what could be done - if
    > public health officials know people are away, and there is a crisis
    > brewing ...

They had no way of knowing that a crisis was brewing.

    > I think you just proved the point I was trying to make to Mxsmanic,
    > who has been insisting that a/c must be installed everywhere in Paris,
    > and that mankind can not survive without a/c at temps more than 35C.
    > My argument has been that such total dependence upon a/c is not wise.

A lot of people would be dead today without it.

Since nobody seems to object to a total dependence on heating, I don't
understand why they object to a total dependence on cooling.

    > I'm glad to hear it can be put into perspective.

You choose your perspectives carefully.

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Gregory Morrow writes:

    > That is because they are "European"....

It is because they are stupid and superstitious.


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Hatunen writes:

    > some people have considerably more time than money.

Not after hyperthermia sets in.

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XOR writes:

    > Social habits and stuctures? You mean buildings *can* be built that
    > aren't entirely dependent upon a/c in such climes?

No, I mean that buildings can be built with air conditioning.

    > You mean one can adjust one's lifestyle to deal
    > with higher temperatures?

Only if one is willing to accept severe restrictions. There are a great
many things that simply cannot be done in high heat (or in severe cold,
for that matter).

    > Uh oh, I think you just *might* be admitting that
    > there are other elements to survival in the heat.

There are no other _practical_ elements. Eventually, you must actively
cool.

Do you object to heating as well? If not, why not?

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Emilia <emilia@(itain't)easy.com> writes:

    > Air conditioning is more widely used in Portugal?
    > I don't think so!

When you know for sure, report back to us.

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On 22/08/03 20:20, in article
[email protected], "Jenn" <[email protected]>
wrote:

    >> The stores ran out of them as in the past. We have had other
    >> heat waves in Paris, less severe and of shorter duration, we
    >> get one about every 10-15 years. People don`t buy fans until
    >> the heat wave comes.
    >
    > the stores ran out of them -- so the public health officials should have
    > seen that they were acquired and available

There were none available, all sold out, factories don`t make zillions
of such things overnight. Our 95 year old example got one, sent from
Greece.


    >>
    >> Like where? This is a sometimes situation in Paris!
    >
    > I spent much of the heat wave in Paris at the Louvre, and the Pompidou
    > and d'Orsay -- and in movie theaters at Les Halles -- all of these
    > places are very big and air conditoned. Busing elderly in overheated
    > fanless apartments to any of these places during the afternoon might
    > have helped some.

A/C is for tourists, if you are a tourist you run into them. Americans
are addicted to A/C so noticed. I am American but I stopped thinking
A/C after our first 10 years here in Paris. I have been here, totally
30, an old ex-pat now also having French citizenship.

I am in the risk group, over 70 with some health problems.

The heat did not bother me, I did not run around looking for
an A/C. I was more worried about the air pollution, the ozone
and Nox concentrations were up, I have chronic asthmatic-bronchitis,
the main thing I WORRY ABOUT is the winter weather. That is when
the death rates rise three fold for some older people (see below).

Old bones is cold bones and some of us welcome the hot weather.
We don`t like the high pressure weather stilling the air, stopping
the cleansing rains and allowing the pollutants to build up.

Those older people living on their own in Paris were
not the main risk group, it was those in the "rest" homes, many
of them are fragile and befuddled. They can`t be move around that
easily.

The only solution is to install A/C in the homes for emergency use.
Unless we have a steady of heat waves in the future, general air
conditioning should not be necessary.

If you want a good overall article, today`s Liberation had one.

Earl

***

Canicule: l'étrange lenteur du comptage
Le bilan tardif du nombre des décès étonne les démographes.

Par Sandrine CABUT

samedi 23 août 2003

«J e suis choqué qu'on ne dispose pas encore de données fiables sur le
nombre de morts de la canicule en France, alors que tout décès doit être
déclaré dans les 24 heures àl'état civil.» Alors que le bilan provisoire de
cette catastrophe sanitaire dépasse déjàles 10 000 victimes, selon les
estimations des Pompes funèbres générales, le démographe Jean-Marie Robine
(1) avoue ne pas comprendre pourquoi les alertes sur l'augmentation du
nombre de décès sont venues aussi tard, d'autant qu'il existe deux systèmes
officiels de remontée des informations.

Incrédulité. «Depuis François Ier, chaque commune dispose d'un registre
d'état civil, avec un fonctionnaire qui enregistre les naissances et les
décès , rappelle-t-il. Je peux comprendre que, dans un village, personne
n'ait tilté en voyant passer le nombre de certificats de 3 à5 par semaine.
Mais dans les com munes de plus de 100 000 ha bitants, la hausse a été vite
significative. Soit les gens sont déconnectés de ce qu'ils font, soit ils
ont transmis l'information au niveau supérieur et ils n'ont pas été
compris.» Même incrédulité quant aux réactions des Ddass (directions
départementales des affaires sanitaires et sociales), qui reçoivent la
partie médicale du certificat de décès, avec les causes de la mort. «Les
certificats sont systématiquement revus par un médecin inspecteur
départemental de santé publique, car la Ddass est en charge de la
surveillance épidémiologique du territoire. Làencore, on se demande ce
qu'il s'est passé, si les médecins n'ont pas fait attention ou si leur
tutelle, la Direction générale de la santé, n'a pas embrayé. La vérité est
probablement entre les deux.»

Bref, il y aurait donc deux ministères (celui de l'Intérieur et celui de la
Santé) susceptibles de communiquer les chiffres. «Si l'on ne veut pas que
cela se reproduise, et c'est déjàla troisième canicule depuis 1976, il faut
mettre en place un système centralisé, qui puisse dire chaque soir combien
il y a eu de naissances et de décès dans la journée», continue Jean-Marie
Robine. L'intérêt ? En fixant un seuil critique d'augmentation du nombre de
décès, par exemple à5 % ou 10 %, l'alerte peut être donnée quasiment en
temps réel.

Faillite. Mais au-delàde la polémique sur le nombre total de morts et la
faillite des systèmes d'information, les démographes sont impatients de
pouvoir analyser des données plus fines, comme la répartition par tranche
d'âge. «Le nombre absolu de personnes très âgées a beaucoup augmenté ces
trente dernières années, ce qui fait que l'on a un gros réservoir de sujets
très fragilisés, susceptibles de réagir fortement àun tel événement»,
remarque Henri Léridon, démographe àl'Institut national d'études
démographiques (Ined) et àl'Inserm. Les données 2001 de l'Insee confirment
    : la France compte aujourd'hui 10 000 centenaires (12 000 selon d'autres
sources), 84 000 personnes âgées de 95 à99 ans et 350 000 entre 90 et 94
ans. En 1971, ces chiffres étaient respectivement de 1000, 14 000 et 92 000.
Soit 4 à10 fois moins. Et Henri Léridon d'insister : «Dans l'avenir, ces
réservoirs de sujets fragiles augmentant, les événements de ce genre auront
des conséquences de plus en plus fortes.» Selon lui, cet été meurtrier ne
devrait pourtant pas avoir de répercussions majeures sur les projections
démographiques. «Nous verrons dans les six prochains mois si l'excès de
décès s'est un peu résorbé. Même si le bilan est lourd, cela ne devrait
cependant pas faire vraiment baisser l'espérance de vie, nombre des
personnes décédées étant en toute fin de vie.»

Un avis que ne partage pas Jean-Marie Robine, qui craint un «cataclysme»
chez les centenaires et supercentenaires (plus de 110 ans). «Contrairement ÃÂ
ce qu'a prétendu le gouvernement, ils n'avaient pas que quelques semaines ÃÂ
vivre. Au-delàde 100 ans, l'espérance de vie est encore de deux ans»,
insiste-t-il. Et de traduire : «Les personnes très âgées sont comme des
coupes de champagne. Elles sont très fragiles mais lorsque l'on s'en occupe
bien, elles cassent peu. Dans un environnement bien protégé, moins de 50 %
meurent dans l'année. Mais si on coupe la climatisation...» Autre preuve de
la fragilité des grands vieillards : la variation saisonnière de leur nombre
de décès. «Les moins de 50 ans sont suffisamment robustes pour voir passer
les saisons sans effet particulier , poursuit Jean-Marie Robine. En
revanche, chez les centenaires et supercentenaires, la mortalité double
quasiment pendant les trois mois d'hiver par rapport aux trois mois d'été,
en dehors de toute épidémie de grippe.» Reste àsavoir dans quelles
proportions la canicule aura décimé les 10 000-12 000 centenaires français.

Bon sens. Pour prévenir un nouveau drame, Jean-Marie Robine fait trois
propositions. D'abord, parallèlement au système centralisé de recueil des
décès en temps réel, préparer des grandes campagnes de prévention...
susceptibles d'atteindre les personnes âgées. «Début août, sur les radios,
tous les messages invitant àboire étaient tournés vers les familles qui
voyageaient en voiture, remarque-t-il. C'est bien, aucun enfant n'est mort
de soif parce qu'on a oublié de lui donner àboire, mais ce n'est pas
suffisant.» Et Robine de s'interroger sur la qualité des soins que reçoivent
les personnes âgées dans les maisons de retraite.

Enfin, ce spécialiste du vieillissement préconise d'installer la
climatisation partout, systématiquement dans les maisons de retraite et
pourquoi pas dans les logements. Du bon sens, preuve épidémiologique ÃÂ
l'appui. «Si l'espérance de vie est élevée dans des pays chauds comme
Singapour et Hongkong, c'est grâce àla climatisation», conclut le
démographe.

(1) Inserm (Valdorel Montpellier), spécialiste de l'épidémiologie du
vieillissement.

On 22/08/03 7:48, in article [email protected],
"Mxsmanic" <[email protected]> wrote:

    >> How many people died in Portugal?
    >
    > I don't know.
    >
    >> Or is *each and every* home in Portugal air conditioned,
    >> as supposedly it is in the US?
    >
    > Air conditioning is more widely used, and social habits and structures
    > are built with higher temperatures in mind. However, Portugal had its
    > share of problems, with temperatures reaching 117° F.
    >
    > --
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The deaths in Portugal are reported at 1300, the data is not really
available from Spain or Italy. The authorities are covering up more
than in France.

Statistically the information is easy to get in France since the
alternate source is not the government.

The "death industry" knows how many people are being buried or want to, and
the local death statistics are available.


Portugal has about 1/6 the population of France so the 1300 figure is
nearly the same as 10,000 in france. Portugal has more coastal area
however. I have been there in the warm months, the coast is reasonable
comfortable, inland is hot.

Spain is worse.

In France, if you prefer winds and cooler climate one goes to Bretagne.

Earl

Earl