Bealinehx

"Further weight to the idea that Expats here are only tolerated although the public health principle tells them to vaccinate as many in the country as they can If they have thought about it at all they're probably working on the assumptions that we can all afford to get one privately plus anyway we won't spread covid."

Yes agreed.

Raffin

Yesterday a lower total due to the weekend effect. The lady doctor spokesperson at the DOH came clean about lab closures. In the daily reports they always give the number of labs that were too late with their reports, but don't tell you about lab closures. So last weekend 36 labs were closed for disinfection.
Nine labs yesterday were late with returns and the tally was 8,571 from 27.9k tests, so an 18.3% positivity, somewhat lower than recently recorded. Still contained a sizeable backlog of 3,465. past results. Tests being prepared were at a lower 32.8k.

Again a high death announcement: 137 including 54 RDs.

Strange hospital figures: Severe down 117 at 828, Critical down 125 at 662.
One has to calculate these from other figures they give. Not given directly.

NCR ICU occupancy is at 85% (down from 86%).
Note that Central Luzon's ICU use is also high, at 82%.....I reported recently that Central Luzon was the origin of the highest percentage of deaths, 46% , at least for one day's total of 401 deaths.

Some location detail:

NCR 3,949
4A 1,562
C Luzon 1,116
Cagayan 4,556
CAR 282
W Visayas 250

All regions down but the NCR percentage of the national total is up a little at 46%.
The NCR plus bubble is at 65.6%, down by over 1%.
The top 6 regions up 2% at 90%.on the day.

Cases fell in all NCR cities except in the two smallest, San Juan and Pateros.
QC cases fell by over 100, Manila's by 72.

The dispute between QC and the DOH over QC covid data continues into 2021.
In this report the QC Mayor claims their active cases are at 11,038. The DOH disagrees:



Although what she says about new cases is in line with the DOH.

Provincially, all the provinces I am regularly monitoring reported less cases, except Pampanga's cases went up by 180 on the day before.

For cities: Baguio had 92, Cebu City 23, Davao City 32, Santiago City 32.

Vaccines:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/13/...tration-starts

Good thinking in Marikina!

Sinovac trials on the elderly might start in May?

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/13/...vaccine-expert

Other trials are mentioned, but note that like vaccine importation here they are slow to start.
The recent surge will not encourage the use of the best form of trial using placebos, as it is seen as unethical and will maybe affect recruitment, when applicants are told they might just get the useless placebo at this time.

On vaccine priority:

Prisoners not included!

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/13/...ut-inmates-out

https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/04...fections-study

The UK variant not leading to more serious infections. The other day I watched an interview on CNN which drew the opposite conclusion after an interview with a couple in Michigan who suffered severe and unusual gastro intestinal symptoms from the UK variant. No substitute for proper studies. It also confirms greater transmission from a higher viral load.


:

Raffin

DOH charts for yesterday:


other Mindanao 61, Unid 34, OFW 25








For urban areas:

13 places in top 20 were NCR cities.
Of note:
Antipolo, Rizal 203
Cauayan, Isabela 111
Tuguegarao, Cagayan 105

Raffin

Yesterday another low announcement, 12 labs were too late and there are certainly some closures ongoing still from Easter giving only 8,122 new cases. However, the backlog included was only 362. Recently it amounted daily to thousands. Positivity edging down to 19.5%. Tests in process 48.5k.
Deaths again a large number at 162 with 64 of them RDs.
Hospital data: Severe 865, up 37. Critical 692 up 30.
NCR ICU at 88% of capacity. ICU beds at 65%.

The NCR case fatality rate (CFR) computed at 5.4% by OCTA. But for the 50-60 yrs age group 8.7%, 60 -64 16.4% and for 65 and over a high 28.6%.
As cases increase in the provinces we can expect similar, maybe even worse, CFRs there. The pandemic showing the generally poor standard of primary health care here.
Our national CFR is at 1.73% currently. It will certainly worsen over the next few months.

Some location data:

NCR 3,753
4A 1,831
C Luzon 811
W Visayas 336
Cagayan 282
C Visayas 239

NCR cases down but with again 46% of national cases.
Notably, region 4A had 269 more cases than the day before.
Central Luzon had less and so did the CAR.
But cases rose a little in both the Central and Western Visayas.
The NCR bubble area had 68.75% of cases, a 3% increase on the day before.
The top 6 region percentage was unchanged at just under 90%.

For the NCR cities 9 had significantly less cases, 6 had more.
Most notably Pasig had 274 more, QC 111 more and Valenzuala had 85 more.
Makati, Mandaluyong and Navotas also had more.

Provincially Cavite stood out with a little less than 300 more cases than the day before.
lLaguna also had more cases, but Rizal reported less.
The figures from Batangas, Bulacan and Pampanga were also down.

Baguio City 58
Cebu City 56
Bacolod City 41
Davao City 39
Santiago City with a very low 5.

Vaccination news:

A suggestion to prioritize the epicentre NCR plus for vaccination. Read down the ABS-CBN report and they say that the NCR region already has had about a third of vaccinations so far. Probably not going to happen. Politically and anyway some areas away from the NCR plus show high positivity but heir testing is deficient to properly show the true case numbers.
A better idea to follow the UKs delayed 2 nd dose roll out?

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/14/...rovinces-first

Latest vaccination data: The Philippines has vaccinated 1.1% of its population, Indonesia 5.8%.

The US CDC coming out on disinfection to say it does not help much as it is very difficult to catch covid from surfaces. A lot of resources are used to disinfect buildings which are not health facilities. Government offices are often closed for a period of time and the risk reduction is very small. Last year in Paranaque they even sprayed car tires as you entered our subdivision and there are all those mats as you enter shops. Just giving customers the feeling that it is safe.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...urfaces-is-low

Raffin

Yesterday 11,429 new cases were announced as results came through from higher early week testing. Seven labs submitted late. Positivity again down a little at 19.1%. Results a little out of date as a backlog of over 3k included. Tests in progress at a higher 52.4k.

Deaths 148, high again from a backlog and including 68 RDs.

Active cases at their second highest level: 183.5k.
Severe up 53 at 918, Critical up 42 at 734. Continued rises.

Some location detail:

NCR 5,317
4A 2,244
C Luzon 1,087
CAR 566
W Visayas 523
Cagayan 464
C Visayas 246

The NCR added more than 1,500 and maintained 46% of national cases.
The NCR+ bubble yesterday was down by 3% in terms of its national share.
The top 6 regions were again at 89.3% of national cases.

NCR cities were nearly all up on the day, except Mandaluyong with about 50 less.
Large rises of about 200 were reported from Caloocan and Manila. San Juan with nearly 150 more.
QC, Navotas and Marikina reported around 100 more.

For the provinces:
Rizal added 262 more.
Batangas and Bulacan added about 200 more than the day before.
Laguna, Pampanga and Quezon province were also up more on the day before..
Cavite reported 176 less than the day before.

Other cities:

Baguio City 198
Santiago City 21
Cebu City 103
Bacolod City 85
Davao City 40
Zamboanga City 87 cases yesterday, pop 1m. Cases rising lately there as can be seen in the DOH chart.




Vaccination priorities:

Frontliners (A4) now include these people in education:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...h?ocid=BingHPC

Quarantine rules:

One example of how easily Covid can spread here, given the locals love of extended family get togethers. More difficult here but the government should have at least tried to control household mixing as has been done in the UK.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=2

Travel controls:

Yesterday observed a number of abandoned checkpoints on the main Manila to Tagaytay road. But at least as of Wednesday there was still a checkpoint operating at the entrance to te Cavitex highway:

Internationally:





By new cases.

Finally, Thailand very concerned about another wave:


But...latest new cases 1,543 and total cases 37k!

Raffin

Yesterday new cases were slightly down to 11,726, 6 labs late in submitting. Test results continue to come out late, though somewhat fewer were included yesterday than the day before at 2,471. Positivity up a little to 19.7%. Tests coming along stated at 52k.

Deaths again high at 145 and 39 of them RDs.

Active cases at nearly 193.5k.The highest so far.
Severe patients up 49 at 967. Critical up 40 at 774.

NCR ICU 84%. Isolation beds 63%.

Location data?
More than 10 hours after the national announcement no local data available from the DOH.

Vaccination:

At last the IATF has come out with a list of 18 "economic frontliners" (lower priority than medical frontliners).:



Good to see that media were eventually included.

These groups keep essential services going but what about controlling virus spread?
With so little vaccine coming the government has basically given up on that for now and just aims to "tough out" the surge in cases over the next few months.
Groups like prisoners, along with us Expats will have to wait:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in

Teachers too. Although some education personnel are included in the A4 list, most teachers are not. Despite many of them being involved in delivering nodules to students at home.
But the amount of virus in the community is rising in many areas of the country so schools returning soon is very unlikely. So no point in promoting teachers in the vaccination priority list, supply is short and there are so many teachers anyway. Only experiments with schools would be possible in those areas with low virus and the President has said more than once he will not allow that, initially because of his fears of highly spreadable variants. But now whether or not they have played a large part in the recent surge community infection rates are too high in the main population areas in Luzon for schools to return. Another year of no face to face classes likely.

https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/...tion-line.html

On Sinovac:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56731801

An indication from Chile that you have to get two shots before you get a reasonable level of protection.

Vaccine promotion:

Now GMA is the main free TV channel Filipinos watch it was interesting to see Willie Reviellame the other day on his daily show do his bit to promote vaccination, he himself having had his first shot, at age 60. But he spoilt it a bit when they put up the daily covid figures on screen, showing over 11,000 cases. Willie referred to it as a warning and why people should get vaccinated, but then read the daily cases out first as 11 million.... quickly correcting himself.

Raffin

Some data:

CAR 312
NCR ,5,127
CAG 435
CL 1,213
4A 2,088
W Visayas 325
C Visayas 341

In the top 3 regions Central Luzon went up by over a 100, NCR and 4A were both down on the day.
Top 6 regions at 88.6% of total cases, down
The NCR bubble at 69.2%, up by 3,5%.

In the NCR 6 cities were moderately down and 8 went up.
Taguig rose by nearly 100. Caloocan went up by 70 and Manila by 60.
QC cases fell by over 300.

Provincially cases in Batangas and Rizal both fell by over 100.
Quezon province by 42.
Bulacan rose by over 100 cases on the day before.
Laguna by over 50.

Bacolod City 53
Baguio City 68
Cebu City 109
Santiago City 56
Davao City 26
Zamboanga City 56

Raffin

Saturday's announcement of another 11,101 cases pushed active infections to over 200k, a record here and according to ABS-CBN a record in SE Asia since the pandemic began. Nearly double Indonesia's although there are always doubts about active case recording in other countries due to differences in the recording of mild and asymptomatic cases

Nine labs did not submit on time and the results include the usual backlog of over 3k cases, Positivity seems to be gradually falling day on day, yesterday at 17.7%.


Deaths again high at 72, 16 RDs.

Hospital data: Severe up again with 52 more to 1019. Critical also up again 41 tp 815.
Ominously, these figures, which are the tip of the iceberg for the covid sick in the country, have both risen every day for the last 4 days.

NCR ICU beds at 85%, isolation beds 62%.
In the NCR there are 53 facilities out of the 153 there experiencing critical conditions.
According to the DOH . Hospitals themselves say it's a lot worse.

Some location data:

CAR 435
NCR 4,606
Cagayan 722
C Luzon 1,501
4A 2,141
W Visayas 369
C Visayas 286

The NCR went down by just under 500 cases and its contribution was down by 6% to 41.5% of national cases.
But all the other above regions had moderately more cases on the day,
The share of the top 6 regions went down a little to 88%.
The share of the NCR+ bubble went down by just under 6%.

In the NCR 7 cities went down, 5 went up significantly.
Malabon reported more than 100 more.
Paranaque had 169 less and QC had more than 100 less than the day before.

In the provinces Bulacan, Cavite and Laguna all increased moderately. The only "bubble" province that didn't was Rizal, down 25 cases.
Batangas had 29 less. Pampanga was about the same at 282 cases.

For some cities:

Bacolod 84
Baguio City up 42 at 110
Cebu City 72
Santiago 34
Davao City 46
Zamboanga City up 21 at 77

Testing:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in

The VP's roving "swab cab" finding more cases. Plenty of scope for more of that!

The effect of ECQ on the NCR plus area?

Some experts and government officials are claiming it has brought cases down, others disagree:

April 13 5,623
14 5,580
15 7,508
16 7,422
17 7,069

So possibly the start of a falling trend over the last 3 days. Remembering that the testing process and validation take many days we may already be getting a good benefit from the ECQ. But now the NCR+ bubble area is in a less restrictive MECQ, so that trend may not fall so quickly in future data.
But as the government and the LGUs cannot afford to organize and give out "ayuda" continually then ECQ cannot be returned to and even MECQ surely can't be imposed for much longer? I predict the government will deal with this politically by keeping the quarantine titles but watering down the restrictions.
Also to note is that cases are also increasing in other provinces. around the nation.
So the country's cases may well go back up again to levels above what we are seeing now and we must then await amelioration from vaccines, the effect from which will take many months to show.
A poor outlook.

Raffin

Yesterday there were just over 10k new cases, 7 labs not reporting. Positivity from 35.5k tests at a lower 17.2% but that includes a backlog of nearly 4k results. Tests in progress at 43.5k.

Deaths at 150...the number of RDs not published. yesterday by GMA, the only source.

Yesterday was another mass recovery day. There were a high 72.6k reported. and it brought the number of active Infections down over 5k on the week to just over 141k.

Big changes on the hospital data: Severe at 988, down 41, Critical 706, down 109 on the day before.

Some location data:
Btw you may wonder where the comprehensive DOH tables have gone. The source I was getting them from has dried up, for now anyway. He's a practicing doctor and I do wonder if he's been pressurized to stop blogging, as he was last year due to him being too critical of the covid response here.

Top regions:

CAR 331
NCR 4,630
Ilocos 300
Cagayan 391
C Luzon 960
4A 2,174
W Visayas 280
C Visayas 313

NCR about the same as the day before. The main change was Central Luzon, down by over 500 cases on the day.
Top 6 regions down at 87.1% and the NCR bubble area up over 1% for national share.
Over the last week the share of the top 6 regions has gone down nearly every day, from over 90% to yesterday's 87%.

For the NCR 10 cities had falling cases. The exceptions were QC, with more than 400 on the day, Pasay, Muntinlupa and Paranaque with more moderate rises.

Provincially all bubble provinces had less cases, except Rizal which was basically unchanged.
Batangas, La Union and Quezon provinces had large rises. Batangas with over 200 more.

For selected cities:

Bacolod 31
Baguio 109, again high.
Cebu 78
Santiago 33
Davao 44
Zamboanga 76

Dr John is back in top gear after some days not feeling well.
Here he explains the blood clots issue very lucidly and presents an interesting finding on the different risks from the various vaccines.
The more you read about this issue the more you wonder whether some jealousy towards AZ is affecting the views of some of these European experts.


Compared adverse vaccine effects

Raffin

Over 400 less cases reported yesterday and a larger than usual backlog of 5,865 cases included in the total of 9,628. Just 4 labs did not report. Positivity down again at still a high 15.4% Tests to come down to32.2k.

Deaths 88 with 19 of them RDs.
Hospital data basically unchanged at Severe 990, Critical 707

NCR ICU 84%, Isolation 63%

Some location data:

CAR 460
NCR 3,848
Cagayan 561
C Luzon 1,334
4A 2,088
W Visayas 312
CV 225

Regionally both NCR and 4A were down on the day. NCR down by nearly 800. But Central Luzon reported 374 more cases. Cagayan, W Visayas and the CAR also reported more.
The NCR bubble share wasdown again at 63% of national cases.
But the top 6 regions percentage was up to 89.4%, breaking a declining trend.

For the NCR 11 cities went down significantly, 3 went up.
QC was down a lot...by over 500 on the day.
Pasay was down to a low 87...has it now started to finally win there against the outbreak?
Malabon had a little less than 150 more cases.
Pasig increased by nearly 200 on the day.
Las Pinas had 72 more to report 226 cases...I know LP a bit and it is a densely inhabited city in some areas.

A lot of movement in provincial figures.

For the bubble provinces Cavite had 79 more, Laguna 73 more, Bulacan 111 more cases.
But Rizal had 100 less cases on the day.
Outside the bubble Batangas had more than 100 more. Pampanga and La Union also had more than 100 more.
Quezon province had a few less.

For cities:

Bacolod 47
Baguio City continuing high with 118
Cebu City 55
Davao 32
Zamboanga 82

Time for some DOH charts:


NCR cases still trending up if only at a slower rate


Region 4A. still increasing, but only slightly..



C Luzon the most concerning with cases still increasing weekly at the highest rate of the 3 top regions.


The picture even worse allowing for the long reporting delays..

Ayuda;

Less than a fifth distributed, according to this ABS-CBN report:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/19/...d-distribution

In our area of semi rural Cavite to my surprise the municipality made an effort to give out money to people in our upscale sub division. So the idea that it's just for the poor, as mentioned in the budget by the government ,is misleading. Whether this is also happening in the top subdivisions in Manila I don't know.

Our HOA drew up a list of permanent residents (important as many homes here are owned by weekenders) and the DSWD actually came round giving out money on Sunday. But a snag....the Barangay id needed to be copied and Xerox facilities are not easily available. So we have more to do on that and need to travel today to the Barangay office to claim the P1,500. In the wife's name, (of course!), and she has already earmarked it to buy life saving clothing off one of those what I call clothing auction sites on Fb. If you ever hear interminable lists of clothing and names of buyers being read out plus the word next!.. then that's it.

Still trying to find out where the majority of Ayuda money is coming from. So far we only know a small fraction is to come from undistributed Bayanihan 2 funds.

Raffin

A lower announcement yesterday to 7,379 new cases. Not really good news as not only were 8 labs late in submitting, but last Sunday 19 labs were closed. This information about closed labs is given out when the DOH chooses so there is uncertainty each day about the results. Of course not amongst the general public, who are usually not aware of the factors that might have affected the day's count.
Positivity at a higher 17.9% and a backlog of 2,539 included......something else the general public is not told about.

ABS-CBN says that total cases so far this year are now greater than they were for all of 2020.

Deaths again high at 93 including 20 RDs.
Severe primary hospital cases down 1 at 889, but Critical up 55 to 762.
NCR ICU at 84%, Isolation at 61%.

Active cases back down to 127k following many more recoveries recently. Over 21k yesterday, 9k the day before and over 72k last Sunday. Seems that the DOH are looking to improve the figures daily and now want to bring forward the reporting of recoveries, rather than announce the majority on Sunday:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=3

Some location detail:

CAR 431
NCR 2,784
Ilocos 154
CAG 739
C Luzon 692
4A 1,470
W Visayas 243
C Visayas 206

All top regions reported less, except Ilocos with 62 more and Cagayan Valley with 178 more cases.
The NCR percentage of national cases went down to a low 37.7%. Presumably affected by lab closures.

The top 6 regions were down over 3% to 86.2%
The NCR bubble area went down 7% to 56% of national cases.

For NCR cities all except 3 had significantly less cases:

Taguig reported a large increase of nearly 250 cases.
Pasay and QC had small increases on the day before.

Provincially nearly all provinces surrounding and near the NCR had less cases:

Bulacan had nearly 350 less. Cavite 234 less and Laguna nearly 200 less.
Pangasinan added 25 more to 81.
La Union 30 more, but only to 37.

For cities:

Bacolod 26
Baguio 116..maintaining a high count.
Cebu 56..consistently lower lately.
Santiago up to 63
Davao 22...maintaining a low daily count.
Zamboanga 90..slowly increasing daily.

Treatments:

The President intervening to reinvent the wheel with Ivermectin. Ordering a local trial when there have been so many studies around the world on its use as a human anti viral against covid. Its safety data is well established. The decision to put resources in to a trial should really be one for the medically qualified.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/20/...clinical-trial

Generally I have noticed a surprising lack of knowledge here sometimes from the so called experts about studies abroad. Most are available on the internet. But maybe the poor internet here is a factor in that? Or maybe the lack of knowledge is just among those elevated to the decision making bodies?

Pandemic support:

Ayuda:

The deadline passed here 3pm yesterday and my wife successfully claimed her emergency quarantine clothing allowance. The clerk at the municipal treasury smirked a little to a colleague when he saw the address. I kept well away.

Budget revisions in the offing?

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/20/...n-covid-19-aid

Bealinehx

Do you really need the Ayuda? Smells a little like those claim SSD.

Raffin

No, and we didn't apply, but the wife insisted, using the argument that if she didn't get it it would be corruptly used!
It would be nice to hear from anyone living in a similar subdivision on whether they were included.
We're the only upscale subd they have with some property owned by the wealthy and celebs. So the Mayor likes to keep good relations and maybe help the caretakers who might have lost some income lately.

Bealinehx

My wife has declined hers. We have had food parcels delivered in the past and passed them on to those in real need.
At the end of the day it is where one's moral compass lies. We all have the belief, that for the majority of the well off in these islands their respective compasses lie very, very low

Raffin

Yes, the very well off yes, but he pandemic has hit some people in the lower middle class quite badly, if for example they were in certain hard hit sectors. Owners of smaller restos, salons etc. They might look ok, live in decent houses but now have little income.
My wife's family got left out of pandemic relief entirely due to where they live.. All they get is quite a low 4Ps aid. So my wife was extra keen to get something.