NCR llockdown

Old May 9th 2021, 10:51 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Gazza-d
Well currently balikbayans are allowed in again. Hopefully this time I'll get back in again before they change their minds again. I've always wondered if there has never been any meaningful testing in the Philippines and the bulk has come from arrivals and departures as since the numbers tested seems to have dropped since the travel cap was reduced to 4500 per day total. And as the numbers entering has been restricted the airlines have stopped comming so the numbers leaving has been choked off which has reduced the testing by many thousands
If only it was so easy to explain. If it was the DOH would use it. But they claim to be puzzled.
Testing of foreign arrivals isn't included in the DOH stats. Look back here on this thread and you won't see them.
What you will see are positive results for ROFs, (Returning Overseas Filipinos). Yes, there have been less lately. Very low numbers now. Yesterday only 7 were positive and tin the past you would see they peaked back in March at an average of 67 a day, falling since with the flight cap. Assuming a low 5% positivity that accounts for no more than about 1,200 individual tests.
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Old May 10th 2021, 1:00 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

"Well currently balikbayans are allowed in again."
Yes that is correct, but if you are here where are you allowed to fly to without quarantine? Then on return you face quarantine, so what is the
point of obtaining BB status on return. My guess a costly and time consuming exercise. So 13 a looks like an attractive option.
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Old May 10th 2021, 7:00 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Bealinehx
"Well currently balikbayans are allowed in again."
Yes that is correct, but if you are here where are you allowed to fly to without quarantine? Then on return you face quarantine, so what is the
point of obtaining BB status on return. My guess a costly and time consuming exercise. So 13 a looks like an attractive option.
13a is not currently being processed here in the UK so there are only two options for returning spouses, 1year free entry on a bb or a 9a visa renewable every couple of months. My intention is to stay for 11-12 months so bb is tbe best option. Whatever the visa everyone has to quarantine so no savings to be made there. We had to return to the UK last July when my father passed and with various lockdowns and bans this is the first opportunity for us to return, assuming nothing changes between now add 29th May.
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Old May 10th 2021, 7:26 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday over 300 less cases, but 5 labs submitted late. Positivity 13.9% and a backlog of 540 included. Tests coming along way down at 31.9k.
Recoveries 8.9k.
Deaths 90, 40 RDs.

Active cases 59,587.
Severe down 29 at 1013, Critical down 22 at 775.

Regional data:

BARMM 95
CAR 186
NCR 1,761
Ilocos 182
Cagayan 343
C Luzon 852
4A 1,359
MIM 206
Bicol 135
W Visayas 566
C Visayas 232
E Visayas 77
Zamboanga Pen 213
N Mindanao 214
Davao Reg 131
SOCCS 137

NCR down by over 200. At 25.7% of national cases. 4A also down. C Luzon up.
W Visayas added 371 more to report 566 cases.
Bicol added 45 to 135 cases.
Zamboanga Pen had over 200 less than the day before.

Top 6 74.7%, down.
NCR bubble 47%, up.

In the NCR Caloocan added 36 more at 197 cases.
Makati, Malabon and Valenzuala all also added more.
Otherwise the cities numbers were about the same or down.
QC was down by 42 cases and Taguig had 46 less.

In the provinces all in the NCR bubble had more cases, Rizal with 87 more than the day before.
Batangas had 32 less.
Pampanga and Quezon both reported a lot less.

For selected cities:

Baguio 86
Bacolod 51
CDO 112, up
Cebu 30
Cotabato 16
Davao 66
Zamboanga 153

Angeles 65
Tarlac 116, up 35

Puerto Princesa 119, up 76

Change in Quarantine to MECQ:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/10/...ntine-may-2021


Apayao


Cagayan


Benguet

The IATF have seen something they don't like as all 3 seem to be improving.
Baguio seems to be improving also.


Baguio

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/09/...outhern-cities

Figures reported here recently would have told you that. Bacolod is the Visayan city with the highest number of active cases, currently at about 600:


Bacolod

Similar graphs for CDO and Cotobato Cities.

Davao City had been on a downward trend but is now levelling:



Davao

Zamboanga City is most concerning with over 1,300 active cases:


Zamboanga

Also Puertp Princesa with over 570 active cases:


Puerto Princesa

OCTA say that these LGUs have the benefit of being smaller cities so they can control the outbreaks. They're not that small. Zamboanga is just under 1m. Even Puerto Princesa is about 300k.

Dr John Campbell explaining well an interesting study on covid deaths:



The US Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation has the UK multiple at 1.4, in line with an Economist Int Unit report a few months ago giving it 1.3. US 1.7, higher than their 1.3.
Japan more than 10 times than officially reported.
Russia 5.4 times.
The Philippines was not included due to lack of data, but Indonesia is estimated as having 2.5 times as many.












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Old May 11th 2021, 11:33 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday over 2k less cases announced. Weekend effect and some unknown factors depressing the collection of samples. So 12 labs not submitting. Positivity 12.2% and a backlog of 805 past results included. Tests coming along slightly higher at 33.4k.
Recoveries 7.8k.

Deaths lower at 59 with 19 of them RDs.
Severe 1022, up 9 and Critical 795, up 20.
Severe at 1.8% of active cases.
NCR ICU unchanged at 67%.

Location data:

Regions:

NCR 1,202
4A 787
C Luzon 620
CAR 369
Cagayan 358
W Visayas 288
Zamboanga Pen 247
Davao Reg 164
N Mindanao 160
Ilocos 156

NCR with more than 500 less yesterday. One quarter of national cases.
Calabarzon had nearly 600 less. C Luzon more than 200 less.
But the CAR had nearly 200 more cases.
Most other regions had less cases.
Though the Zamboanga Pen had 34 more.at 247.

For NCR cities all except Pasay and QC had many less cases. Pasay had just 9 more. QC only 8 more to report 425 cases, 35% of the NCR total.

Provincially all the bubble provinces and Batangas reported many less cases.
But Pampanga and Pangasinan reported more, 130 and 84.
Ifugao 111 more than the day before at 141.
Quezon province had 50 more.

For cities:

Bacolod 15
Baguio 51
CDO 29
Cebu 20
Cotabato 11
Davao 24
Puerto Princesa 11

Angeles 50
Tarlac 34
Zamboanga not avail. at time of posting.

The Indian variant has made it here. The Philippines joins a number of other countries too slow to act.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...ant-from-india

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Old May 12th 2021, 11:53 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday another daily total in the 4 thousands, 5 labs did not submit. The DOH said "low testing output Monday". Positivity 12,5% with a backlog of results included at 651. Tests on the way at 41.2k.
Recoveries 8.3k.
Deaths 94 with 35 RDs.
Active cases at 53,214. Severe cases in primary hospitals now up to 1.9%, so Severe at 1,011, down 11 and Critical at 745, down 50.
NCR ICU down 1% at 66%.

For regions:

NCR 1,224
4A 1,039
C Luzon 505
Cagayan 332
W Visayas 281
CAR 222

Regionally the NCR again at a quarter of national cases .Region 4A up by over 250. C Luzon down by over 100.
Outside the top 6 regions Bicol, C Visayas and Davao Regions all added significantly more cases.
Soccsargen more than doubled its cases to report 161.

The top 6 regions at 74.4%, down nearly 2%.
The NCR bubble at 43.8%, up nearly 2% on the day before.

For NCR cities 6 went up significantly. Valenzuala stood out by more than doubling to 81.
Falling reports from Caloocan and QC. QC had more than 100 less cases than the day before.

Around Manila all provinces except Bulacan had more cases. Laguna over 70 more, Cavite 60 more than the day before.
Pampanga had 59 less, Pangasinan 41 less.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 86, up 71
Baguio 53
CDO 28
Cebu 13
Cotabato 21
Davao 69, up 45
Zamboanga 88, but yesterday it had 158!
Puerto Princesa 3

Angeles 23
Tarlac 58

On vaccination:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/12/...ed-philippines

7.7M Seniors? That's from the last Census 6 years ago. I did some calculations from a population site and made it 9.8M for mid 2021.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...nes-population

Totals;

Up to May 11 2.54 M doses, 515k fully vaccinated.

Useful to bear in mind when herd immunity is discussed the site above estimates the 2021 adult Philippines population at 71.9M, its total population then at 110.9M.
The DOH continue to use out of date census figures.

Latest OCTA report on most concerning urban areas outside the NCR:


Daily attack rates in right hand column.

A mixture of Southern cities and some around Manila.


Zamboanga City






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Old May 13th 2021, 7:44 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 6,385 cases, 13.6% positivity. A backlog included of 354. Tests in preparation at 43.7k.
Recoveries at 4.3k, the lowest in a week.
Deaths 107 with 59 RDs.
Active cases at 55,260. Severe cases at a high 1.9% giving 1,950, up 39. Critical up 29 to 774.
NCR ICU down 2% to 64%.

Regions:

NCR 1,608
C Luzon 991
4A 962
Cagayan 523
W Visayas 394
Zamboanga Pen 253

NCR again at 25% of national cases,
Most regions up except C Luzon, which added nearly 500 more to unusually exceed region 4A.
Zamboanga had nearly 120 more.
Top 6 had 74.1%, down a little. NCR bubble 40.6%, down nearly 3%.
Just outside the top 6 were N Mindanao and the CAR at 220 and 190 cases.

In the NCR the great majority of cities had more cases.
Caloocan150 more. Pasig 56 more. Manila 38 more than the day before.

For the NCR bubble provinces Laguna and Rizal had moderate rises. But Bulacan added 114 more.
Cavite added 59 less.
Pampanga added 250 cases, 179 more than the day before.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 59
Baguio 98, up.
CDO 113!
Cebu 29
Cotabato 17
Davao 53
IloIlo 52
Zamboanga 133, up
Puerto Princesa 1

Angeles 84, up
Tarlac 96, up

On vaccination:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/05...e-deaths-study

I hope they are going to delay the second dose here. But do they do much learning from abroad?

Vaccination sites:

https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/...S-pattern.html
https://www.philstar.com/nation/2021...ination-center
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...O?ocid=BingHPC

The Nayong Pilipino vaccination centre project a showcase for all that is concerning about public private projects here. A Texas and California type facility whereas the people need more local centres.
Araneta centre, yes!

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ovid-19/story/

A long way off but the Finance chief budgeting for teens vaccination:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ovid-19/story/

I checked this out and there really are about 15M teenagers here. The evidence is that there is less benefit from vaccinating them than older members of the population.
But given the great reluctance here by the President to allow any resumption of face to face tuition and the poor substitutes in place now for a second school year their vaccination may be necessary to allow the restart of classes. But another P20bn when economic growth is forecast to be greatly down?

Testing in the provinces:


Tests done in Zamboanga City's main testing centre.

Notice that lately positivity there has sometimes reached as high as 40% yet the number of individual tests they are doing is at about the same level as at the start of 2021, when covid infection was much lower.in Zamboanga. An issue for many of the more remote provinces where infections are increasing lately.


Second wave in Malaysia


Taiwan's new wavelet up to 10 daily cases and they are worried!











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Old May 14th 2021, 11:50 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 6,784 new cases, 5 labs late submission. Includes a backlog of 753. Positivity a little down at 13.1%. A higher 49.4k tests on the way.
Recoveries down at 3k.
Deaths 137, 71 of which RDs.
Active cases 58,986...Severe 1,062, up 12 and Critical down 7 at 767.
NCR ICU beds % down 3 at 61%.

Regional data:

NCR 1,697
4A 1,325
C Luzon 976
Cagayan 457
C Visayas 312
N Mindanao 299
Zamboanga Pen 292
W Visayas 283
CARAGA 197
Ilocos 190

The NCR added only 89 more.
Region 4A up by over 350 on the day before. C Visayas added over 130 more.
N Mindanao added 59 more to reach 299. Zamboanga Pen with 40 more added to reach 292 for the day.
Ilocos added nearly 70 more cases.

Top 6 regions 74.7%, up
NCR bubble 38.9% , down

In the NCR small changes.
QC added 69 more, Manila 29 more and Caloocan 59 less than the day before.
Marikina added 48 to have 85 cases.

Provincially those around Manila all added more, except Pampanga.
Cavite added 161 more, Bulacan 87 and Laguna 80 more than the day before.
Both Batangas and Quezon provinces added more cases, 56 and 68 more.
Pampanga added over 100 less at 148.

Selected cities:

Baguio 31
Bacolod 50
CDO 115, another high total
Cebu 42
Cotabato 19
Davao 34
Zamboanga 165, up 32

Angeles 43
Tarlac 98

Puertto Princesa 3

Bohol 122

Bohol population of about 1,5M, one city and so far only 424 active cases:


Bohol

Another article on getting treated here:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/money/busi...t?ocid=BingHPC

Quarantine change of NCR bubble to "heightened" GCQ"

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/money/busi...F?ocid=BingHPC
https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...le-in-churches

It would be better to have kept to the unmodified classifications and copy the UK model of only moving them when the data allows. But here they want to make token, small changes like indoor dining allowed up to 20%. Seems hardly worth doing for the owners and the effect on employment minimal.

Related to the NCR bubble restrictions on religious gatherings is this item about CDO city, where cases have been increasing.:

https://www.rappler.com/nation/cagay...covid-19-surge

Indian variant:


Recent Dr John You tube video

Many areas in the UK having to take special measures against the Indian variant, which seems to spread quicker than others. In Bolton, Lancs cases doubling in one week. Travel to India not restricted quickly enough. Along with many other countries too late. Except Australia. A good chance future relaxations to restrictions in the UK will be delayed. Although the UK has vaccinated two thirds of adults the Indian population is more hesitant.
With little vaccination accomplished here and some cases of the variant already identified the Philippines is at some risk. Poor genomic testing means the authorities won't know in time.















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Old May 15th 2021, 11:02 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

A slightly lower total yesterday at 6,739, though probably significant that 9 labs did not submit. Results were nearly all recent. Positivity slightly down at 12.9%. Tests on the way at a lower 34k.
Recoveries 9k
93 deaths, 36 of them RDs.
Philippines case fatality rate now at 1.67%.
Severe up 16 to 1,078, Critical also up, by 27, to 794.
NCR ICU use up 2% at 63%.

Regional data:

NCR 1,620
4A 1,371
C Luzon 827
W Visayas 552
Cagayan 524
Zamboanga Pen 336
N Mindanao 260

NCR at a low 24% of national cases.
A notable increase from W Visayas, nearly doubling.
Zamboanga Pen with 44 more added on the day before.
Bicol Region added 54 more to reach a high 188 cases.

Top 6 had 77.6% of cases, up.
NCR bubble 41.9%, also up.

For NCR cities Caloocan had more than 100 less to 128.
QC added more than 100 to have 408 cases. Manila fell a little to 178.
Taguig had 50 more than the day before to record 143 cases.
Pasay at only 29 new cases.

In the provinces Cavite, Bulacan and Rizal all had noticeably less cases. Laguna had about 50 more.
Batangas reported 311, nearly 100 more.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 76, up
Baguio 65, up
CDO 88, down
Cebu 30, down
Cotabato 10, down
Davao 96...highest daily total for many months.
IloIlo 113...more than double the day before.
Zamboanga 213, up 48

Puerto Princesa 11

Angeles 53, up
Tarlac 60, down

Excess deaths due to covid:

A long and detailed update from the Economist Intelligence Unit, following the US study noted here back on May 11.
The top countries only given here:



For this part of the world Jakarta, not Indonesia presumably due to lack of data, features with a 40 per 100k pop excess deaths number.. Other SE Asian countries much lower. even negative. The Philippines with a negative number, which is surprising to me. Britain and the US about the same at 180 and 182.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...deaths-tracker




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Old May 16th 2021, 10:52 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

A lower total of 5,790 published yesterday, 6 labs did not submit. DOH said low testing output Friday. Positivity and backlog data not available at time of posting.. Tests on the way at 40k.
Recoveries 7.5k.

Deaths 140, 90 of which were RDs.

Active cases 54,904
Severe 1,043, down 35....Critical 769, down 25.
NCR ICU beds n/avail.

The latest NCR cases chart. Testing output admitted by DOH to have been lower recently. Why they don't say. NCR positivity data not available lately.


NCR falling trend but low testing..

National deaths:



Falling trend likely but not yet established.

Regional data:

NCR 1,204
4A 1,174
C Luzon 659
N Mindanao 390
Cagayan 337
W Visayas 298
C Visayas 291
Ilocos 254
CAR 237
Zamboanga 195

The NCR at a low 20,8% of national cases. More than 400 fewer cases, 4A and C Luzon also with less cases.
N Mindanao added 130 more cases than on the day before to report 390.cases in 4th place.
The top 6 regions at 70.2%, down over 7% on the day before.
The NCR bubble area down a little to a 40% share of national cases.

All the major NCR cities reported less cases except Paranaque with 91, 35 more than the day before.
QC 384, Manila 142,

In the provinces Bulacan and Laguna reported significantly less, Cavite and Rizal a few more.
Batangas with over 150 less.
Pampanga 29 less.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 49, down
Baguio 66
CDO 104, more
Cebu 30
Cotabato 6
Davao 62, less
IloIlo 49, less
Zamboanga 128, less

Angeles 32
Tarlac 125, more than double

Bohol 49
Puerto Princesa 42, more

Indian variant:


Saturday update.

A number of clusters of one of the Indian variants (B.1.617.2) have been identified, mostly in England, but a few also in the rest of the UK.
The SAGE committee say it is possibly 50% more transmissable than the UK variant. They are confident existing vaccines will give good protection against severe illness but somewhat less against moderate and mild infection. They have recommended the UK government not go ahead with the next two re-openings, but nevertheless they will go ahead with the first, which is due today.
Good if it can be kept from spreading in any of the NCR cities here, but I think it will. Even changes in vaccine measures will only have a small effect in the UK, so the only measure that will stop it here are the stricter quarantines, which look like being loosened even though testing is down. Without a good genomic testing capacity we will just have to closely observe the data, which makes more testing here even more necessary. Look out for situations like in Pasay City a few weeks ago.
The US is also vulnerable. Their CDC have not yet even found it there yet.











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Old May 18th 2021, 1:31 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday a little under 200 more cases, positivity at 13.1% out of 45.2k tests. The positivity for cases announced on the previous day still not published. Results are recent, in fact 79 results have been held over. Tests on the way at a much lower 25.7k. Something, or a number of factors, continues to depress testing. I'm sure the DOH know what but don't like to say.

Recoveries 6.6k.

Deaths 72, with 31 RDs. Lowest deaths in 6 days.

Severe 976, down 67....Critical 759, down 10.
NCR ICU 56%, down 7% on two days ago.

Regional data:

NCR 1,318
4A 1,231
C Luzon 708
W Visayas 414
N Mindanao 347
Zamboanga Pen 317
Ilocos 245

NCR up a little at 22% of the national total. Regions 4A and C Luzon also up a little.
W Visayas and Zamboanga Pen both up by over 100.
CAR and C Visayas both down by over 100.

Top 6 regions at 72.5%, up.
NCR bubble up a little at 41.8%.

In the NCR Caloocan, Pasig, Valenzuala and Taguig all reported significantly more cases.
Paranaque and QC both had less.

Provincially all the Bubble provinces except Rizal reported significantly more cases. Rizal had 44 less.
Pangasinan had 42 more.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 69
Baguio 56
CDO 163, 59 more
Cebu 18
Cotabato 15
Davao 71
IloIlo 63
Puerto Princesa 114, 72 more
Zamboanga 236, 108 more!

Angeles 33
Tarlac 97, less

Bohol 72, more

OCTA update on the NCR:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...esearch/story/

Obviously the NCR restrictions have had some effect on case numbers. But the average daily attack rate of about 10 in the NCR is still high, a figure only seen in the UK now in a few areas where the Indian virus has taken a hold. For example in England Bedford recently averaged 18 per 100k per day. NCR positivity at 11%. If after relaxation of restrictions R increases from 0.57 then cases will increase again. Given that testing has fallen lately anyway, not a good prospect. Even now 6 of the 17 cities are seen by the DOH at moderate risk, the rest high risk.

Vaccine plan:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ovid-19/story/

A somewhat garbled report. The expansion areas seem to be ones to be vaccinated after the so called "hotspots".
Anyway, 58M people to be vaccinated by August? Never mind taking into account people already vaccinated, children and those who can't or don't want to be vaccinated. Let's look at this at a basic level.
One or two doses? Let's say just one dose, following the UK, That's 100 days to the end of August. If the Philippines can match the best the UK achieved back in mid March when they achieved 600k doses a day and keep that going for 100 days they will do it! But the UK couldn't keep it up due to vaccine supply falls and is now doing about 470k a day.
We couldn't even get near to it being achieved and anyway no experts here are promoting the delayed second dose strategy. Plus difficulty getting supplies. The Philippine's neighbours are all getting concerned about increasing their own vaccinations as they are seeing increased cases, They can put out statements like this as the public is too pre-occupied with staying alive in the pandemic, Miss Universe, and the local media supine. End of the year if we're lucky, not August. And then we need to deal withy the "expansion areas". But some of those can easily develop into hotpots in the meantime!

Form filling before getting vaccinated:

https://www.rappler.com/voices/thoug...nation-process















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Old May 19th 2021, 2:05 am
  #867  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Announced cases yesterday fell by nearly 1,500, At 4,487 the lowest since March 17. Eight labs did not report on Sunday and unusually the DOH spox gave an idea of how many cases might have been added if they had. She said about 2.7%. That would probably add over 100 cases. There was a backlog included of 1,020. Positivity at 13% of 26.7k cases. Tests on the way at 28.5k.
Recoveries 6.4k.

Deaths 110, 64 of them the unexplained and persistent RDs.

Active cases 52,291.
Severe cases 1,046, up 70 and Critical cases up 25 at 784.

Regional data:

NCR 871
4A 802
C Luzon 565
W Visayas 218
CAR 215
SOCCSK 209
N Mindanao 205
Zamboanga Pen 205
Ilocos 192

The NCR total was down more than 400. The NCR share at 19.4%.
Regions increasing on the day before were the CAR by 84, Cagayan,70 and SOCCSKSARGEN, which had 33 more cases.

In the NCR all cities reported less cases.
The top 3 cities were QC which had 258, Manila 110, Caloocan 67 new cases.

All the provinces around Manila reported significantly less cases except Pampanga and Rizal.
Pampanga had 13 more and Rizal 17 more.

For selected cities:

Bacolod 33
Baguio 57
CDO 33
Cebu 21
Davao 45
IloIlo 22
Puerto Princesa 100, lower but high.
Zamboanga 135, 100 lower but high

Bohol 84, up 12

Angeles 20
Tarlac 23

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Old May 19th 2021, 10:38 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday saw an increase of 213 cases at 4,700. Seven labs not reporting. No info on them. Positivity up a little to 13.8% on 30.8k individual tests. Included a backlog of 446 cases, Tests on the way at 45.6k.
Recoveries 7k.
Deaths 136, 88 of them RDs. High numbers continue.

Active cases 49,951, the lowest since March 14.
Severe up 3 to 1,049, Critical down 35 to 749.
Severe cases consistently now over 2% of total cases.
NCR ICU unchanged at 56%.

Regional data:

NCR 984
4A 912
C Luzon 611
Ilocos 271
W Visayas 266
Cagayan 228
CAR 223
Zamboanga Pen 214

NCR at 21% of national cases.
Region 4A with only 62 less than the NCR.
Ilocos 4th.
Top regions up or stable except SOCCSK, 49 less, C Visayas 46 less and N Mindanao, 96 less.

Top 6 regions 69.6%, up on the day before's figure of 64.2%
MCR bubble 39%, up on 37.4%.

Ten NCR cities had modest increases yesterday. Notably Valenzuala was 38 up, QC 36 up and Paranaque, up 28.
Las Pinas with 12 less.
Top 4 NCR cities were QC at 222, Manila 122, Caloocan 98 and Paranaque 78.

In the NCR bubble provinces Cavite had 89 more, Laguna 50 more.
Bulacan and Rizal had 33 and 61 less.
Outside the bubble Batangas had 58 more, Pangasinan 36 more.
Pampanga had 28 less.

For selected cities:

Bacolod 72, up
Baguio 94, up
CDO 47, up
Cebu 13
Davao 79, up
IloIlo 77, up
Puerto Princesa 23...big fall. The main lab seems to have dealt with a backlog of results after a week closed earlier this month.
Zamboanga 121, still high

Angeles 47
Tarlac 50...both these C Luzon cities up

The rise in cases in some southern and N Luzon cities is notable and judging by recent positivity there they could find many more. Main testing centers only:


Bacolod City around 20%


IloIlo City over 10%.


Bohol Island....around 15%

Cotabato City rising to over 20%


Zamboanga City varying from 20 to 40% lately.


Puerto Princesa...rose to more than 50% lately.


Baguio City at 20 to 25%.


Tarlac at 30 to 50% recently.


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Old May 20th 2021, 11:26 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday another 1,400 more new cases added than on the day before. Three labs late. Positivity a slightly lower 12.6% out of 49.2k tested. 102 cases held over. Tests coming along on 43.4k individuals.
Recoveries 4.1k.

Deaths again high at 135 and 71 of those more RDs.
Active cases 51,912
Severe in primary hospitals 1,038, down 11;Critical 779, up 30.
NCR ICU use 59%, up 3%

Regional data:

NCR 1,354
4A 1,037
C Luzon 829
W Visayas 487
Cagayan 392
Zamboanga Pen 275
MIM 258
Ilocos 245
C Visayas 231

NCR with 370 more cases and 22% of the national total.
Zamboanga Pen regains 6th position. .Notable that MIMAROPA, a group pf islands, is in 7th position.

Top 6 regions 71.7%, up 2%
NCR bubble 37.8%, down 1%

For NCR cities 11 were up moderately, 2 down.
Pasig put on 68 more, Taguig 53 more and Valenzuala 38 more than the day before.
QC with 229, Manila 135 and Caloocan 119 cases were the top 3 cities.

In the provinces Bulacan, Laguna and Rizal all added more cases than the day before. Laguna added the most, 57.
Cavite added 25 less.
Outside the NCR bubble Pampanga added 177 cases, 76 more than the day before.
Pangasinan added 58 less.
Quezon province added 83 cases, but the day before only 11.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 110, up 28
Baguio 7, down 87!
CDO 111, more than doubled!
Cebu 45, 32 more and the highest for over a week
Davao 34, down
IloIlo 82, up slightly
Puerto Princesa 63, up 40
Zamboanga 143, high again and up 22

Bohol 28, down

Angeles 60, up 13
Tarlac 91, up 41

One reason why covid patients may not be welcome in regional private hospitals;

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...h-covid-claims

Vaccinating children:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...p?ocid=BingHPC

This Senator seems to be one of the better ones here, yet he doesn't seem to understand the concept of herd immunity. The idea is that you don't have to get to 100%.
Also if you give 30M people vaccine more priority who will they displace? People who are much more likely to spread the virus!
Better to prioritise the teachers!
Also another example here of the constant requests to the FDA to investigate drugs and vaccine applications where many studies have already been undertaken in other countries. and probably done far better than could be here. Only necessary if Philippine conditions are very different.

As we are talking about herd immunity the latest antigen test survey data from the UK suggests that pre-vaccination in the UK about 18% of the population had covid antibodies. With vaccination it is now at 69%. So you can say that here we are starting with a much lower figure as the UK outbreak was far worse last year, even allowing for more under reporting here. For more on this view Dr John's Wednesday update on You tube.
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Old May 21st 2021, 10:33 pm
  #870  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday an increase of 158, 5 labs not reporting. Positivity at 13% from 44.8k individuals including a backlog of 425 results. Tests coming along 46.2k Nowhere near the level it should be.
Recoveries at a low 2.6k.

Deaths 141, 74 of them RDs.

Comparing deaths over the last few days.
The chart from 5 days ago (ignore trend lines)


The latest chart:


Levelling

Active cases 55,531.
Severe 1000, down 38, Critical 777, down 2
NCR ICU 56%, down 3%

Regional data:

No region yesterday was under 100 cases. Two regions at 106: the CAR and SOCCSK.
200 and over:

NCR 1,393
4A 1,204
C Luzon 816
W Visayas 500
C Visayas 287
N Mindanao 257
Cagayan 239
MIM 227

NCR with a few more cases. Its share slightly higher at 22.3%.
N Mindanao up 91.
C Visayas up 56.
Cagayan down more than 150.

The share of the top 6 regions down a little to 71.2%.
NCR bubble up 2% to 39.9% of national cases.

QC added 123 cases on the day before.
Mandaluyong 26 more.
Caloocan, Makati , Paranaque and Taguig all had a few less.
Top 4: QC 352, Manila 159, Pasig 148, Caloocan 104.

Provincially:
Three NCR bubble provinces had substantially more cases.
Cavite 346
Laguna 327
Bulacan 248
Then Rizal with only 5 less at 183.

Batangas had 75 more at 241.

Pampanga had 41 less at 136.
Pangasinan up 25 at 68.

Selected cities:

Bacold 105...another high report
Baguio 50
CDO 118..again high
Cebu 38
Davao 106..highest for a while
IloIlo 90...cases rising
Puertp Princesa 101.....38 more and cases rising recently
Zamboanga 50...nearly 100 less.


Davao City going up again..

Bohol 119 .. 91 more reported

Angeles 35
Tarlac 78. both down

Vaccine totals from DOH at May 18

First: dose 2.5M people
Second dose 0.8M people



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