NCR llockdown

Old Jul 3rd 2021, 6:35 pm
  #946  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday's DOH data cont.

Tests coming along lower at 43.8k.

Regional data:

4A 933
NCR 689
W Visayas 638
Davao 575
C Luzon 557
C Visayas 407
Ilocos 342

4 regions in the 200s.

4A was top with over 250 more cases added over the day before. At 15.8% of the national total. NCR was up 37. Davao in 4th place added 30 more.
C Luzon at 5th added 79 more.
MIMAROPA with 167 cases added 26 more.

Top 6: 64.3%, nearly 4% more.

In the NCR there were no dramatic changes. Pasig added 27 more. QC 24, Manila 23 more.

QC 162, Manila 110, Taguig 72, Pasig 44, Makati 44, Las Pinas 34

In the provinces around the NCR the most notable changes were Laguna adding 133 more and Cavite reporting over 100 more cases.

Bataan 60, down 70
Batangas 126
Bulacan 97
Cavite 287
La Union 80, down 54
Laguna 341
Pampanga 75
Pangasinan 107
Quezon 65
Rizal 93

Selected Cities:

Bacolod 30
Baguio 60
CDO 42
Cebu 58
Davao 309, down 1
Gen San 68
IloIlo 109, down 3
Tacloban 28
Zamboanga 20

Bohol 147, up 40





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Old Jul 4th 2021, 9:15 am
  #947  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday new cases increased by only 58 from a moderately high testing of 44k individuals. Just one lab late to submit. So 5,966 with 906 of them a backlog. Positivity up again at 11.5%.

Recoveries 7k.
130 recoveries were returned to Active.

Deaths 86, 27 of them RDs.

Active cases at 52,708.
ABS-CBN have produced a useful chart:


Latest figures looking flat...

In primary hospitals: Severe cases 1,107, up 34 and Critical 738, down 13

NCR ICU 46%, national 57%
A 6% increase from the day before.

Location data again late. Wil update later.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=2

The OCTA group trying not to look too gloomy about the situation but with testing seemingly capped at around 50k they must know the DOH cannot find all the extra cases quickly enough that the positivity rates suggest are out there. They are also following the DOH in downplaying other areas of concern nearer to the old NCR epicentre and in N Luzon.

Flat lining at a moderately high level has often been the base for another wave of infection in other countries.

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Old Jul 4th 2021, 1:31 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Location data for July 4:

Tests coming along 44k again.

Regional data:

4A 823
W Visayas 792
NCR 785
Davao 551
C Luzon 449
E Visayas 377
N Mindanao 308

3 regions in the 200s

Even with 110 less cases 4A came top with 13.8% of all cases. W Visayas added 154 to gain second place. NCR added nearly 100 to come third. E Visayas gained 100 and N Mindanao 90 over the day before.

Top 6 regions at 63.3%, down 1%.

In the NCR 9 cities each added a moderate number of cases but Malabon added 38 more.

QC 171, Manila 100, Makati 57, Taguig 57, Caloocan 55, Las Pinas 48, Malabon 48

In the provinces Bulacan added 61 more, Batangas 50 more, Pampanga 35 more.

Bataan 34
Batangas 176
Bulacan 158
Cavite 210, 77 less
La Union 85
Laguna 264, 77 less
Pampanga 110
Pangasinan 100
Quezon 69
Rizal 81

Selected cities:

Bacolod 173, up 143
Baguio 58
CDO 90, up 48
Cebu 87, up 29
Davao 222, down 87
GenSan 62
IloIlo 113, up 4
Tacloban 44, up 16
Zamboanga 28, up 8

Bohol 72, down 75






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Old Jul 5th 2021, 9:39 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Getting on for 600 less new cases yesterday at 5,392. Ten labs were late in submitting and the DOH estimate a likely extra 40 cases from them. A backlog of 586 results included. Positivity 11.3% out of 47.6k tests. Only 31.2k expected next due to the weekend effect.

Recoveries 6.2k

43 deaths with 20 of them RDs.

Severe 1,084, down 23 and Critical 774, up 36.

NCR ICU 42%, up 4% nationally 56%, down 1%

Regional data

4A 838
NCR 630
Davao 505
W Visayas 474
Ilocos 473
C Luzon 450
C Visayas 330

3 regions in the 200s

4A top again with 15.5% of all cases.
Notable increases in Ilocos, up 194, the CAR up 110 to 195 and Cagayan, up 54 to 204.
Nine regions were down.

Top 6: 62.5%, down

In the NCR 12 cities had less cases. Ten had between 20 and 40 cases.
Valenzuala added 15, Navotas 13 and Muntinlupa 8.

QC 123, Manila 86, Taguig 48, Muntinlupa 43

In the provinces Bataan added 82, La Union 62, Laguna 51, Pampanga 21 cases.

Bataan 116
Batangas 151
Bulacan 87
Cavite 241
La Union 147
Laguna 315
Pampanga 73
Pangasinan 121
Quezon 33
Rizal 88

Selected cities:

Bacolod 35, down
Baguio 82, up 24
CDO 73, down
Cebu 71, down
Davao 287, up 65
GenSan 70, up
IloIlo 96, down
Tacloban 32, down
Zamboanga 27

Bohol 31, down

Latest news on variants here:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/05/...-variant-in-ph




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Old Jul 6th 2021, 9:16 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

The lowest total for 2 weeks yesterday, although it was from the weekend testing of 31.5k individuals. 4,114 positives with 9 labs not reporting. Backlog of 803 included. Positivity lower at 10.5%. Tests on the way at 31.9k.

Recoveries 6.1k

Deaths 104 with 63 RDs.

Active cases 49,613, down by nearly 2k

Severe 1,092, up 8 and Critical 744, down 30

NCR ICU 44%, up 2% and nationally 57%, up 1%

Regional data:

4A 582
W Visayas 510
NCR 417
Davao 410
C Luzon 378
C Visayas 317

3 regions in the 200s

Top 6 regions: 63.5% of all cases, up 1%.

All had lower totals except W Visayas, up 36, SOCCSKSARGEN, up 34 to 295 and N Mindanao, up 32 to 247.

Region 4A again top and had 14.1% of all cases.

In the NCR all cities except Caloocan and Makati had less cases. They only had 6 and 1 more respectively.

QC 109, Manila 59, Makati 37, Caloocan 36

In the provinces around the NCR all except Pampanga, Rizal and Quezon had less cases.

Bataan 27
Batangas 114
Bulacan 86
Cavite 157
La Union 65
Laguna 142
Pampanga 74, up 1
Pangasinan 72
Quezon 48, up 15
Rizal 104, up 16

Selected cities

Bacolod 69, up 34
Baguio 84, up
CDO 45, down
Cebu 73, up
Davao 143, down
GenSan 103, up 33
IloIlo 43, down

Bohol 111, up 80

A ticking off for the DOH from the WHO representative. The public can certainly get the wrong impression from the DOH "low risk" statement the more so since the DOH do not announce locational statistics on a daily basis and make it difficult to get them.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/06/...k-for-covid-19




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Old Jul 6th 2021, 8:42 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

When the Delta variant gets into the Philippines, and it will, there is going to be a tsunami of cases, the UK is predicting 100k+ case a day in the next couple of weeks mainly amongst the unvaccinated and that only at about 25% of the population. The mind boggles at what it could do with 85-90% unvaccinated.
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Old Jul 6th 2021, 9:32 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Gazza-d
When the Delta variant gets into the Philippines, and it will, there is going to be a tsunami of cases, the UK is predicting 100k+ case a day in the next couple of weeks mainly amongst the unvaccinated and that only at about 25% of the population. The mind boggles at what it could do with 85-90% unvaccinated.
This priest/scientist, part of the OCTA group, disagrees. He's come out with strange ideas before. Looking only at the NCR if all those presently on one dose get their second there will only be about 5M with two, mostly the less effective Sinovac too. Not enough. Many more getting two doses will take some time with likely frequent supply difficulties and diversion of vaccines to the VIsayas and Mindanao:

https://www.philstar.com/nation/2021...ficient-supply


So way short of protecting the NCR population from the fast spreading delta or other similar variants if they get a hold, especially in cities with a lower percentage vaccinated. Seniors have been prioritized and in the NCR that involves about 0.4M by now fully vaccinated, so the potential for spread is that much greater through the younger population.

The rest of the country's regions are way behind the NCR, 4A and Central Luzon with vaccinations and will be more vulnerable.

Last edited by Raffin; Jul 6th 2021 at 9:35 pm. Reason: change link
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Old Jul 7th 2021, 11:10 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday's total 175 more than the day before at 4,284, four labs late to submit. Backlog of 282 included. Positivity back up at 11.3% from 35.5k tests. A higher 49.2K tests coming along.

Recoveries 6.4k

Deaths 164 with 123 RDs.
Case fatality rate up to 1.76%

Active cases 47,519 ,down over 2k

Severe 1,093, up 1 and Critical 760, up 16

NCR ICU 45%, up 1%. Nationally 57%, unchanged

Regional data:

4A 716
W Visayas 570
Davao 510
NCR 472
SOCCSK 322
C Luzon 284
Ilocos 245
C Visayas 209

Region 4A top with 134 more and at 16.7% of all cases. W Visayas 60 more. Davao had 100 more.
Bicol added about 100 more at 154. Zamboanga Pen 82 to 145. Cagayan 79 to 136.

Top 6: 67.0%, up 6.5%

The NCR cities added 55 cases. Six cities went significantly up, 3 were down.
Manila added 21 more , Paranaque 19 and Mandaluyong 18.

QC 111, Manila 80, Paranaque 46, Las Pinas 30

In the provinces Cavite added 84 more, Laguna 57. Bataan 64 .

Bataan 91, up
Batangas 90, down
Bulacan 62, up
Cavite 241, up
La Union 15, down
Pampanga 47, down
Pangasinan 62, down
Quezon 61, up
Rizal 90, down

Selected cities:

Bacolod 12, up 53
Baguio 5, down
CDO 41
Cebu 41, down
Davao 244, up 100
GenSan 61, down
IloIlo 136, up 96

Bohol 62, down

Variants:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in

Duque says variants "may explain" recent surges in Bohol and Negros Oriental. But we know the Philippines has very limited ability to genome test so these findings he presented to the President won't be giving the true picture.


Geometric case growth projected in the UK over the next few weeks..

Although not so relevant to the Philippines Dr John explaining (with some incredulity) a change in UK strategy in the face of the delta variant and the calculated risks (or gamble) it is taking.



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Old Jul 8th 2021, 11:17 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

The result of nearly 50k tests was about 1,200 more positive cases announced yesterday. Positivity sticking at 11.3%. Backlog of only 158 included. A small drop to 48.3k tests in preparation.

Recoveries 3.9k

Deaths at 191 (the highest since June 11) with 152 of them the infamous (to a select few only!) RDs.

Interesting to look at the latest DOH deaths chart and one from 10 days ago beneath it:





In 10 days discernable increases shown by the bars over the last few weeks as these RDs are allocated to their date of occurrence. Although still a falling trend.

Active cases up to 49k with Severe 1,079, down 14 and Critical 736, down 24.
In major hospitals only. These numbers not affected much by the RDs, who are mostly not dying there.

NCR ICU at 43%, down 2% (nationally 57%)

Regional data:

NCR 748
W Visayas 701
4A 646
C Luzon 481
C Visayas 352
Davao 334
Cagayan 331
N Mindanao 328
Ilocos 302

The NCR returning to first position with about 300 more cases after some time lower in the table. It had 14.2% of all cases.I wonder if staff in the NCR LGUs, released from vaccination duties due to the lack of supply, have been reallocated to testing?

W Visayas was second with about 130 more. C Luzon had about 200 more cases.
C Visayas and N Mindanao both had about 150 more cases.
E Visayas had more than 100 more cases.

The top 6 regions had 60% of cases, down 7% on the day before.

In the NCR Las Pinas stood out heading QC's total with 80 more cases than the day before.
Makati had 58 more, Pasig 55 more and Taguig 42 more cases.
In all 6 cities reported significantly more cases.

Las Pinas 110, QC 100, Manila 86, Makati 84, Taguig 62, Caloocan 50

Provincially around the NCR Batangas added 63 cases to the day before's total.
The other provinces with moderate increases in cases were Bulacan, La Union, Laguna and Pampanga.

Bataan 93
Batangas 153
Bulacan 156
Cavite 119
La Union 59
Laguna 260
Pampanga 105
Pangasinan 67
Quezon 19
Rizal 90

Selected cities:

Bacolod 21, down
Baguio 47, up
CDO 104, up 63
Cebu 84, up
Davao 185, down
GenSan 68, up
IloIlo 125, down

Bohol 73, up

Long covid:

Not something they are worried about here much with all that's going on in their battle against covid, but maybe they should be given the third paragraph on this screenshot of a recent video from Dr John:












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Old Jul 8th 2021, 2:21 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

As there's no social care to speak of here why would tbey worry about long covid, not their problem.
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Old Jul 8th 2021, 3:19 pm
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Originally Posted by Gazza-d
As there's no social care to speak of here why would tbey worry about long covid, not their problem.
They want to extend health care here and this will just add to the demand. If as likely many of these people are not properly treated in primary hospitals the worst cases could end up in other government facilities. Link with M.E. Significant implications for the labour force. See Thursday's Dr John update.
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Old Jul 9th 2021, 8:48 am
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New cases for July 9 were up 400 or so, 5 labs late to submit. Small backlog included of 381. Positivity still high at 11.0%
Recoveries down at 3.0k. Tests coming along slightly down on yesterday's 50.6k at 49.7k.

Deaths lower at 70, 34 RDs.
Severe patients 1,142, up 63 and Critical 779, up 42

NCR ICU 41%, down 2% (nationally 57% unchanged)

28 recoveries became active.

Active cases up to 51,902

Regional data:

NCR 776
4A 704
W Visayas 696
C Luzon 588
Davao 572
Ilocos 479
C Visayas 419

NCR was again top with 13.2% of all cases.
4A added 58 to come second.
C Luzon added about 100 to come fourth.
Davao with more than 200 more to come fifth. Ilocos had nearly 200 more to make sixth place.

No region in the 300s.
3 in the 200s.

Top 6: 64.9% of all cases, up 5%

In the NCR 7 cities were up and 5 down. Small changes generally, though QC added 81.
But the numbers do not indicate the virus is under control there.

QC 181, Pasig 75, Manila 70, Taguig 66, Makati 61, Muntinlupa 48

For the provinces Cavite added 70 more. La Union about 100.

Bataan 64
Batangas 68
Bulacan 100
Cavite 189
La Union 163
Laguna 269
Pampanga 141
Pangasinan 90
Quezon 41
Rizal 94

Selected cities:

Bacolod 101, up 80
Baguio 66, up
CDO 99
Cebu 74
Davao 261, up 76
GenSan 65
IloIlo 130

Bohol 138, up 65

Quarantine news:

Kids out in Manila

Kids 5 and over allowed out (except in Malls) in all GCQ and MGCQ areas, except in Cavite and Laguna, which are subject to heightened restrictions. And maybe elsewhere depending on the Mayor.
Those of you who regularly look at Dr John's videos will know he would be appalled at the effect this restriction has had on their vitamin D levels.

Population statistics:

The PSA is asking us to believe these Census numbers, collected last year though the pandemic, 2015 Census in brackets.
The QC result is particularly unbelievable as it is home to many unregistered people, who were most affected by the pandemic.
People left the NCR in droves for the provinces. Were they even counted there?

QC 2.96M (2.94M)
City of Manila 1.85M (1.78M)
Caloocan 1.7M (1.58M)
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Old Jul 10th 2021, 9:19 am
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Yesterday's total was about 200 less, 3 labs late to submit. Backlog only 98. Again 11% were positive out of 50.7k individuals, a number of tests nearly equal to the day before's.. On the way 45.2k tests.

Recoveries 7.6k
Deaths 96, 42 RDs.

Active cases were down nearly 2k to 49,968

Severe 1,199, up 57 and Critical 750, down 29.

NCR ICU 40%, down 1% Nationally 55%, down 2%.

Regional data:

W Visayas 951
NCR 724
4A 698
Davao 576
C Visayas 511
Ilocos 426
C Luzon 401

No 300s
2 200s

A different looking table yesterday. W Visayas was top with over 250 more cases and 16.8% of the national total.
Not many other major changes upwards except for SOCCSKSARGEN adding 123 more and C Visayas 92 more.
Major downward changes; C Luzon fell by 187, N Mindanao by 160 and Bicol by 119.

Top 6 regions: 68.5% of all cases, up 3,6%

Few significant upward changes in the provincial numbers. Except that Pangasinan added 47 more.
Pampanga fell by 47 and Cavite by 37.

Bataan 68
Batangas 100
Bulacan 95
Cavite 142
La Union 114
Laguna 259
Pampanga 94
Pangasinan 137
Quezon 68
Rizal 117

Selected cities:

Bacolod 162, up 61
Baguio 44, down 22
CDO 55, down 44
Cebu 92, up 18
Davao 306, up 45
GenSan 42, down 23
IloIlo 136

Bohol 161, up 23

Pushback from the OCTA group against the DOH's "low risk" statement:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/23/...s-enforced-doh

Their assessment: Low to Moderate risk with some high risk areas.
Correction: the national positivity rate is not below 5%. It is above 10%.

Latest OCTA look at high risk cities.




Calamba is in Laguna, on the SLEX.
Butuan is in the Caraga Region.
Tagum City is in Davao del Norte province.



Tagum City not available separately. This is for Davao del Norte province.

Latest Philippines international standing: (total cases new cases, then total deaths)



Ordered by new cases giving a higher position.


Note: Myanmar figure likely much higher.




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Old Jul 11th 2021, 9:04 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

About 250 more cases yesterday from about 3.7k less tests. So positivity up a little to 11.4%. Again 3 labs late in submitting. A 550 backlog of results was included. Tests in preparation down a little at 45.2k.

Recoveries 6.1k.

Deaths105 and 53 of them RDs.

A small drop in Active Cases to 49,701.

Severe 1,193, down 4 and Critical 746, down 4

NCR ICU 40%, unchanged. Nationally 56%, up 1%.

Location data not yet put up. Will update later.

Central Visayas:

Some details from the local DOH on the rise in infections there.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/centr...third-wave-doh


Central Visayas

UK lifting of restrictions:

Although it is plain the UK government is going ahead with a general lifting of restrictions in a week's time a large number of scientists and health specialists are vey unhappy at the de facto herd immunity policy implied. a policy change at the same time as the Indian variant is behind a rapid increase in cases. An interesting conference was held by them (You tube link below).

The Philippines is aiming for a weak herd immunity in one area of the country by November by vaccination but that is slow and uncertain. So with a steady official daily tally of cases in the region of 4 -5,000, testing too low to find the many more in parts of the country with positivity over 20%, this country is also effectively going towards a weak herd immunity another way by not being able to vaccinate quickly enough. In the UK one of the main objections to the change in policy is the strain on the NHS from a soon expected 100,000 new infections a day, here there are much lower numbers and much less health service to strain. But allowing the virus to spread here will cause more problems for what there is and for the affected people, especially in poorer areas. Not a disaster unless the Indian variant or similar takes hold over the next 6 months, but it means a likely continuation of the currently poor situation well into next year.



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Old Jul 11th 2021, 8:10 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Regional data yesterday (300 and over):

4A 777
W Visayas 707
NCR 623
C Luzon 615
C Visayas 603
Davao 510
Ilocos 350

No 400s, 4 200s

4A top with 13.1% of all cases.
C Luzon up 214
C Visayas up 92, Davao 66
Cagayan and Bicol both up 134

Top 6: 64.8%, down 3.7%

For NCR cities:

No big changes.

QC 112, Manila 74, Pasig 71, Makati 73, Taguig 51, Las Pinas 46

Provincially:

Bataan up 216
Cavite up 133

Bataan 284
Batangas 120
Bulacan 83
Cavite 275
La Union 110
Laguna 219
Pampanga 106
Pangasinan 102
Quezon 37
Rizal 107

Selected cities:

Bacolod 79, down
Baguio 79, up
CDO 62, up
Cebu 114, up 22
Davao 216, down
GenSan 60, up
IloIlo 98, down

Bohol 190, up 29



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