Paladin

Here's my currency trader's point of view from purely a personal standpoint.... from a technical standpoint only, i.e. from a chart analysis point of view:-

At time of writing we just hit a new high of 2.8477 on this leg of new recent uptrend. The down trend line from the high of 3.7150 to a low of 2.4128 has been broken so we are in a current uptrend.

When the pound ran up vs the NZD to 3.7150 there was a spike low at 2.9166; this will form one area of resistance on this run up; ie potential halting point to the run up. When the GBP then weakened from 3.7150 down to NZD of 2.4128 there was another spike low at 2.8612, which will form another resistance point on the current run up.

The last run down from 3.7150 to 2.4128 yields fibonacci resistance levels at 33.3% of 2.8464(hit today!!!), 38.2% of 2.9102. After that we're talking the 50% retracement being 3.0639!!!

So I will be watching the 2.8464 to 2.9166 area for signs of the NZD strengthening, ie GBP uptrend breakdown, as a possible area to buy a chunk of our NZ dollars on a forward contract(ie lock the rate in).

If it breaks through 2.945 the charts don't look like there's anything stopping the run up to 3.00 at least. I personally will then look to lock in some more of our money around 3.00 on another forward contract.

Remember you can use Forward Contracts with your currency broker(eg Halo, HIFX etc) to lock in a rate if it reaches a level you're happy with so if it does suddenly start heading back down you've protected yourself.

On a cautionary note the daily chart is already looking quite overbought; the relative strength index already in the overbought area of the indicator; doesn't mean it can't go higher but will possibly mean we could see some more consolidation before another leg up.

Remember this is just my technical view; fundamentals are something else....ya never know when the NZ central bank could throw a spanner in the works on interest rates etc etc.

Hope that helps a bit!!!

Dave

Lisa T

Good heavens Dave,

I feel so inadequate now, knowing that someone there are people on this forum who understand money......I shall say thankyou for the advice and for making at lease some instructions clear!

Paladin

You're most welcome!!!

MV5555

YES THANX DAVE BTW DO YOU KNOW THE CHEAPEST WAY TO GET £ FROM THE UK INTO $ AND AT AS CLOSE TO THE BANK RATE AS POSSIBLE

Paladin

Use a good currency broker!!!

I'm using HIFX for our transactions. They have a good reputation, but there are certainly others around.

Dave

MV5555

Just gone past the 2.85 marker

James1st

Imported inflation is still inflation and with the new very generous benefits for working families coming online in April billions will be put into the pockets of young families who will, almost certainly, spend the new money thereby adding further to inflationary pressure.

If The government is not going to use taxation to dampen demand then they will, almost certainly, need to keep interest rates high.

What does this mean? there will come a point probably around 2.85-2.9 where the foreign investors will come back in and in so doing will stop the fall. It was their hot money that caused the over valuation in the first place and so my guess would be for a slight readjustment to circa 2.75-2.8 over the next week or so.

sky

Roll on April the 1st can't wait to get my hands on that lovely money

MV5555

what the deal for working families?
will it apply to PR's

James1st

My daughter only came out in August with PR and they will get the cash- circa $150 per week and three mornings of free(ish) kindy

never seen her so happy! - it will cover their mortgage!

(he earns circa $40K and they have 2 children)

dunedindan

hi we came out in dec on a permanent residancy what is this child payment stuff people are going on about it sounds handy if we are entitled to it
any help will be much appeciated

James1st

Yes I think you are! pop into your local Inland revenue office or go to their web site for full details I think the max salary is just under $149,000 so most will benefit.

dunedindan

thanks will have a look on site

CWEMM02

I just looked around on the IRD website and progressed to www.workingforfamilies.govt.nz. I couldn't find any information on elibility related to residency status. However, I recall reading in the package of information that came with the ITA that we couldn't have social benefits until two years had passed. Perhaps that means unemployment payments, welfare and the like. I would be interested to hear what others have found out.

MV5555

2.88 keep going baby!!!!