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meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Old May 16th 2006, 7:56 am
  #76  
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by MV5555
nearly there Dave

1.00 GBP
United Kingdom Pounds = 3.05450 NZD
New Zealand Dollars

Hiya!

Been away Sun & Mon teaching diving on the Devon Coast...... 11 degrees...brrrrrr!! Bit cold or what!!!! Thank heavens for dry suits!!! Can't wait to get to the East Auckland Current; at least it only gets that cold in dead of winter!!!!

I see I missed the fun yesterday morning! Checked my charts.... the interbank market makers hit $3.0600 at 8.36am !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dave
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Old May 16th 2006, 7:58 am
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by Paladin
Hiya!

Been away Sun & Mon teaching diving on the Devon Coast...... 11 degrees...brrrrrr!! Bit cold or what!!!! Thank heavens for dry suits!!! Can't wait to get to the East Auckland Current; at least it only gets that cold in dead of winter!!!!

I see I missed the fun yesterday morning! Checked my charts.... the interbank market makers hit $3.0600 at 8.36am !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dave
dropped back some what now do u still think it will go again?
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Old May 16th 2006, 8:02 am
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by Tubbs
Hi Dave
Very interested in your views. We are moving to Wellington shortly. NZ/£ exchange rate has continued to fall since offer of employment and salary (Dec 2005!). RBNZ seem reluctant to intervene and so far interest rates remain the same and yet the exchange rate continues to fall. On the one hand the RBNZ are saying they don't want to reduce interest rates but on the other hand the National quarterly forecasts are predicting interest and exchange rates falling until 2007.

We are waiting to transfer funds and are unsure when to do so. The RBNZ seem set on Monetary policy and therefore appear to be more worried about inflation and specifically imported inflation. That leads me to think they might even even consider a hike in interest rates to try and curb the decline in the NZD in which case we should be ready to buy?

This is all very new to us and would really welcome some advice/ thoughts.
As my currency trading mentor says "price is the ultimate indicator"; i.e. the BIG BANKS trading on the interbank market are setting rates based on all the info/knowledge/projections out there and hence tend to price in what they are expecting to happen. Therefore they are most often a leading indicator of what the national/central banks are going to do IMHO.

I'm a technical trader so I tend to follow the technicals until such time as fundamentals prove them wrong!

Dave
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Old May 16th 2006, 8:06 am
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by MV5555
dropped back some what now do u still think it will go again?
Some consolidation after hitting a major target is just the natural flow of the market.

I've gotta go do some work but will try to give the GBP/NZD charts a more comprehensive look later on to see where price projection might take us!

That $3.21 target is still out there for sure.

Have a great day!

Dave
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Old May 16th 2006, 11:45 am
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by Paladin
Some consolidation after hitting a major target is just the natural flow of the market.

I've gotta go do some work but will try to give the GBP/NZD charts a more comprehensive look later on to see where price projection might take us!

That $3.21 target is still out there for sure.

Have a great day!

Dave
Hi Everyone!

Here's an update on the GBP/NZD chart technicals:

Daily Chart:
Showing overbought on short + long term Stochastics. Not overly concerned as this indicator can stay overbought for long periods in a trending market.
MACD showing possible negative divergence(ie indicator peak lower than the peak made when the last price peak at $2.91 was made versus the $3.06 peak just finished) BUT this current MACD peak is not confirmed yet!
40 day Exponential Moving Average support at $2.87.

4 Hour Chart:
40 EMA support at $2.99. Oversold Stochastics short term, still bit overbought long term.

1 Hour Chart:
40 EMA support at $3.02 & 200 EMA support at $2.97. Stochastics oversold short & long term.

Retracements & Extensions:
We have now hit the price retracement target of $3.06(50% retracement) as previously mentioned so the next target is the 61.8% retracement at $3.21. The 2/3rds(66.7%) retracement yields $3.28.

Extension targets for the up trend from $2.41 to $2.91 yield $3.10(138.2% extension) and $3.21(161.8% extension).
Extension targets for the up trend from $2.41 to $3.06 yield $3.30(138.2% extension) and $3.45(161.8% extension).

Summary:
Looks like short term profit taking/consolidation has set up for the next move up. We should see support around $2.97-$3.00 range and below that the prior peak at $2.91 should be very solid support, if it were to go down that far.

My targets if we solidly pass $3.06:

$3.10, 3.21. 3.28, 3.30, 3.45.

I will be watching these levels for signs of the up trend ending at each point.

Remember..."The trend Is Your Friend!!!".

Hope that helps!!

Dave
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Old May 16th 2006, 11:51 am
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Could you repeat that in English Please




Just joking
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Old May 16th 2006, 12:21 pm
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by planty
Could you repeat that in English Please




Just joking

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Old May 16th 2006, 1:15 pm
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by planty
Could you repeat that in English Please




Just joking

Glad to be of amusement!!

Dave
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Old May 16th 2006, 1:49 pm
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by Paladin
Glad to be of amusement!!

Dave

seriously its good to have an insite into the currency dealing thingy-mi-jig
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Old May 17th 2006, 8:03 am
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by MV5555
seriously its good to have an insite into the currency dealing thingy-mi-jig

Trying hard not too be too technical in my language but it IS difficult when dealing with a technical subject!
Glad you're finding it interesting & useful!

Dave
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Old May 17th 2006, 9:07 am
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

If I had some money leftover to bring over I'd be really glad of you updates
Unfortunately I don't bit of a bugger cos the rate is a lot better than we got, we changed our money to buy a house about afternoon time and by the next morning we could have got another $6k and it kept climbing over the next couple of days .. if we had changed a couple of days later we'd have had an extra $12k.
I had to stop looking and torturing myself
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Old May 17th 2006, 9:40 am
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by Paladin
Trying hard not too be too technical in my language but it IS difficult when dealing with a technical subject!
Glad you're finding it interesting & useful!

Dave
It's brilliant reading, the first bit was fine and the last bit, it was the bit in the middle where it lost me. The bit between 'Daily chart:' and ' Remember the trend is your friend!!!'

Do you really think it could go up to $3.45?

Sorry Dave but you are trying to educate Pork, well done though you obviously know your stuff, unlike the rest of us.

Tis a wonder any of us have any money in our pockets seeing as we know so little about the stuff.
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Old May 17th 2006, 10:28 am
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by planty
.........Do you really think it could go up to $3.45?.......
If I knew for DEFINITE I'd be a billionaire already!!

It will depend on how the fundamentals of the NZ economy are perceived relative to the UK's and what changes happen in each country, particularly interest rates.

The target levels are all "possibles" based on technical analysis of price charts so long as the trend is in place!!

At a very basic level, anyone could go to the interactive charts online at somewhere like HIFX's website, get up a chart of the daily prices for the GBP/NZD, add a trend line from the low down around $2.41 drawn upwards to the right across the lowest lows to where we are now to show the trend. If price were to drop down below that long trend line then the runup could well be finished!!

If you were to then add a 200 day exponential moving average to that chart; and price dropped below that EMA line convincingly, that would be a big signal too. The 200 EMA is sort of the bellweather moving average used by traders.

These two things wouldn't catch the top of the market but would keep you on the right side of things!

Hope that's useful!

Dave
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Old May 17th 2006, 12:55 pm
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by Paladin
If I knew for DEFINITE I'd be a billionaire already!!

It will depend on how the fundamentals of the NZ economy are perceived relative to the UK's and what changes happen in each country, particularly interest rates.

The target levels are all "possibles" based on technical analysis of price charts so long as the trend is in place!!

At a very basic level, anyone could go to the interactive charts online at somewhere like HIFX's website, get up a chart of the daily prices for the GBP/NZD, add a trend line from the low down around $2.41 drawn upwards to the right across the lowest lows to where we are now to show the trend. If price were to drop down below that long trend line then the runup could well be finished!!

If you were to then add a 200 day exponential moving average to that chart; and price dropped below that EMA line convincingly, that would be a big signal too. The 200 EMA is sort of the bellweather moving average used by traders.

These two things wouldn't catch the top of the market but would keep you on the right side of things!

Hope that's useful!

Dave
How cool is that? Just been playing with the charts on HIFX, I had no idea you do that, I hadn't realised that the $ had been over 3.60 before.

One question came from this: Money traders buy money of all currencies, so do they have to have bank accounts in all the countries they buy money in? Or is there some sort of holding pot, until they are ready to sell?

Ok it was two questions, but they could become endless.
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Old May 17th 2006, 1:18 pm
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Unhappy Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by Paladin
If I knew for DEFINITE I'd be a billionaire already!!

It will depend on how the fundamentals of the NZ economy are perceived relative to the UK's and what changes happen in each country, particularly interest rates.

The target levels are all "possibles" based on technical analysis of price charts so long as the trend is in place!!

At a very basic level, anyone could go to the interactive charts online at somewhere like HIFX's website, get up a chart of the daily prices for the GBP/NZD, add a trend line from the low down around $2.41 drawn upwards to the right across the lowest lows to where we are now to show the trend. If price were to drop down below that long trend line then the runup could well be finished!!

If you were to then add a 200 day exponential moving average to that chart; and price dropped below that EMA line convincingly, that would be a big signal too. The 200 EMA is sort of the bellweather moving average used by traders.

These two things wouldn't catch the top of the market but would keep you on the right side of things!

Hope that's useful!

Dave
Well there are certainly many signs that the NZD will keep falling (not that I'm in Dave's or "The Bears" category of expertise!)

With this in mind we do have one major problem that is causing us to have second thoughts about the move. We will have to make pretty substantial payments in £'s to the UK every month (we'll also be on much less income initially as we'll be living on one income). Money obviously isn't everything which is why we're going, lifestyle etc. In the short term we obviously have a problem. But what about the long term? Are there any options? E.g. setting up Forward contracts once/if the NZD strengthens (we're talking about over £1000 p.m.)

Thanks
Janet
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