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meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Old May 10th 2006, 11:08 pm
  #61  
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the grou

Originally Posted by Spacecake799
Im totally confused by the whole money thing. When we sell our house we will have a lump sum to use to buy a house. Obviously this will be in a bank in the uk. When were ready to come to NZ ( hopefully around sept) what should we do with our money. Sorry for being so thick!
Obviously you are going to want to make sure that your UK pounds 'buy' as many NZ dollars (kiwis) as possible. IF you want to take your money to NZ (presumably to buy a house etc.) then just make sure that you time the purchase of your kiwis to ensure you get the best possible rate. Today your pounds will buy you 20% more kiwis than 6 months ago... that could have a huge impact on the type of property you might purchase in NZ.

When you are ready to move the money make sure you use a broker who offers a competitive rate (the difference between 'high st. banks' and a specialist broker can easily exceed 5%).

You'll need to take a personal view on what you think currency rates might do in the foreseeable future - this will help you time the purchase.

I would certainly recommend everyone reads the regular economic reports from the major NZ banks - these will often state the expectations of their own in-house professional economists and often show tables displaying the anticipated future exchange rates. I'd start with Westpac:

http://www.westpac.co.nz/olcontent/o...&refr=Business

Alan.
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Old May 11th 2006, 9:23 am
  #62  
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the grou

Originally Posted by Spacecake799
Im totally confused by the whole money thing. When we sell our house we will have a lump sum to use to buy a house. Obviously this will be in a bank in the uk. When were ready to come to NZ ( hopefully around sept) what should we do with our money. Sorry for being so thick!
I have to agree with Alan's (ISV) comments!

DEFINITELY use a specialist currency broker; you will get a much better exchange rate!

AND if you see that the exchange rate is at a level you are happy with then lock in that rate on a Forward Contract so you don't lose money if the rate starts going back down. To do this you will need to put a small portion of the money you wish to exchange on deposit and then pay the balance on expiry of the forward contract.

First step: talk to one of the well respected currency brokers like HIFX, Halo etc. My personal choice is HIFX but do your own research.

Good luck!
Dave
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Old May 11th 2006, 9:58 am
  #63  
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Keep up the good work Dave & Alan - your posts are very impressive. I'm glad someone understands more than I do!!
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Old May 11th 2006, 10:35 am
  #64  
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Hi Everyone!

Just took a look at the GBP/NZD charts:

It appears some quite strong selling pressure has come in just below the "psychological" resistance of $3.0000; high $2.9929 reached last night! The rate is down 3 cents from there.

DO NOT GET ALARMED!

The strong up trend line from the daily charts is still in place, all we are seeing is some natural profit taking from the speculators due to some short term overbought conditions.

If we see a decent pull back we should see support in the area $2.89 - $2.91 as this would encompass a 50% retracement from this last up move and also the highs hit 28/29th March(retested 2nd April). This is something that could work its way out over a few days, not necessarily happening today!

This actually would be a positive move as it would give the market room to then push up again from a less overbought position, through $3.00 and on to the $3.06 level I have previously mentioned, and possibly that $3.21 level too.

Enjoy the ride!!!

Dave

Last edited by Paladin; May 11th 2006 at 10:43 am.
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Old May 11th 2006, 2:50 pm
  #65  
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the grou

Originally Posted by Spacecake799
Im totally confused by the whole money thing. When we sell our house we will have a lump sum to use to buy a house. Obviously this will be in a bank in the uk. When were ready to come to NZ ( hopefully around sept) what should we do with our money. Sorry for being so thick!
I don't know if it will help but we have some articles about currency exchange and transferring funds in the article section, here are two of them:

http://britishexpats.com/articles/fi...sferring-funds

http://britishexpats.com/articles/fi...-rollercoaster

Sue
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Old May 11th 2006, 7:35 pm
  #66  
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by Paladin
Hi Everyone!

Just took a look at the GBP/NZD charts:

It appears some quite strong selling pressure has come in just below the "psychological" resistance of $3.0000; high $2.9929 reached last night! The rate is down 3 cents from there.

DO NOT GET ALARMED!

The strong up trend line from the daily charts is still in place, all we are seeing is some natural profit taking from the speculators due to some short term overbought conditions.

If we see a decent pull back we should see support in the area $2.89 - $2.91 as this would encompass a 50% retracement from this last up move and also the highs hit 28/29th March(retested 2nd April). This is something that could work its way out over a few days, not necessarily happening today!

This actually would be a positive move as it would give the market room to then push up again from a less overbought position, through $3.00 and on to the $3.06 level I have previously mentioned, and possibly that $3.21 level too.

Enjoy the ride!!!

Dave
wow this turning into quite e tread

9 days and counting till we fly :scared:
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Old May 12th 2006, 8:54 am
  #67  
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

$3.00 hit this morning, hopefully next stop $3.06!!!
Party on..........!!!!!!!

Dave

Last edited by Paladin; May 12th 2006 at 8:57 am.
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Old May 12th 2006, 9:06 am
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by Paladin
$3.00 hit this morning, hopefully next stop $3.06!!!
Party on..........!!!!!!!

Dave
Live mid-market rates as of 2006.05.12 08:04:54 UTC.
1.00 GBP
United Kingdom Pounds = 3.00915 NZD
New Zealand Dollars
1 GBP = 3.00915 NZD 1 NZD = 0.332320 GBP


omg
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Old May 12th 2006, 9:29 am
  #69  
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by MV5555
Live mid-market rates as of 2006.05.12 08:04:54 UTC.
1.00 GBP
United Kingdom Pounds = 3.00915 NZD
New Zealand Dollars
1 GBP = 3.00915 NZD 1 NZD = 0.332320 GBP


omg

OH YES!!!!

$3.0209 hit a few minutes ago..... almost there... we want $3.06!!!

Dave
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Old May 12th 2006, 9:37 am
  #70  
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Party time indeed - just got to get the missus to make up her mind to emigrate, sell the house and go.

What do you reckon it'll go to Dave?

Bob.
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Old May 12th 2006, 9:51 am
  #71  
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by Woodlea
Party time indeed - just got to get the missus to make up her mind to emigrate, sell the house and go.

What do you reckon it'll go to Dave?

Bob.
$3.06 then $3.21 as stated above!!!!

Dave
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Old May 12th 2006, 11:58 am
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the grou

Originally Posted by Sue
I don't know if it will help but we have some articles about currency exchange and transferring funds in the article section, here are two of them:

http://britishexpats.com/articles/fi...sferring-funds

http://britishexpats.com/articles/fi...-rollercoaster

Sue
Excellent links Sue, nice one!!!

Dave
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Old May 14th 2006, 12:35 am
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Question Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by Paladin
Here's my currency trader's point of view from purely a personal standpoint.... from a technical standpoint only, i.e. from a chart analysis point of view:-

At time of writing we just hit a new high of 2.8477 on this leg of new recent uptrend. The down trend line from the high of 3.7150 to a low of 2.4128 has been broken so we are in a current uptrend.

When the pound ran up vs the NZD to 3.7150 there was a spike low at 2.9166; this will form one area of resistance on this run up; ie potential halting point to the run up. When the GBP then weakened from 3.7150 down to NZD of 2.4128 there was another spike low at 2.8612, which will form another resistance point on the current run up.

The last run down from 3.7150 to 2.4128 yields fibonacci resistance levels at 33.3% of 2.8464(hit today!!!), 38.2% of 2.9102. After that we're talking the 50% retracement being 3.0639!!!

So I will be watching the 2.8464 to 2.9166 area for signs of the NZD strengthening, ie GBP uptrend breakdown, as a possible area to buy a chunk of our NZ dollars on a forward contract(ie lock the rate in).

If it breaks through 2.945 the charts don't look like there's anything stopping the run up to 3.00 at least. I personally will then look to lock in some more of our money around 3.00 on another forward contract.

Remember you can use Forward Contracts with your currency broker(eg Halo, HIFX etc) to lock in a rate if it reaches a level you're happy with so if it does suddenly start heading back down you've protected yourself.

On a cautionary note the daily chart is already looking quite overbought; the relative strength index already in the overbought area of the indicator; doesn't mean it can't go higher but will possibly mean we could see some more consolidation before another leg up.

Remember this is just my technical view; fundamentals are something else....ya never know when the NZ central bank could throw a spanner in the works on interest rates etc etc.

Hope that helps a bit!!!

Dave

Hi Dave
Very interested in your views. We are moving to Wellington shortly. NZ/£ exchange rate has continued to fall since offer of employment and salary (Dec 2005!). RBNZ seem reluctant to intervene and so far interest rates remain the same and yet the exchange rate continues to fall. On the one hand the RBNZ are saying they don't want to reduce interest rates but on the other hand the National quarterly forecasts are predicting interest and exchange rates falling until 2007.

We are waiting to transfer funds and are unsure when to do so. The RBNZ seem set on Monetary policy and therefore appear to be more worried about inflation and specifically imported inflation. That leads me to think they might even even consider a hike in interest rates to try and curb the decline in the NZD in which case we should be ready to buy?

This is all very new to us and would really welcome some advice/ thoughts.

Last edited by Tubbs; May 14th 2006 at 12:43 am.
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Old May 15th 2006, 8:41 am
  #74  
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by Paladin
$3.06 then $3.21 as stated above!!!!

Dave
nearly there Dave

1.00 GBP
United Kingdom Pounds = 3.05450 NZD
New Zealand Dollars
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Old May 15th 2006, 9:03 am
  #75  
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Default Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!

Originally Posted by thebears
3.45 in about 9 months
Here we go here we go
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