Biddy

Unfortunately I've no Sterling left. Continued reports of rate being up around 2.9 just make me jealous!!





Hmmm wonder if I have any rich Aunts just about to pop their clogs?

SarahB

Just decided to sell my house in the UK so have been watching the exchange rate with great interest (rubbing hands together)..... money money money....

Paladin

As I've previously stated, keep your eye on $2.945 and then $3.00(currency markets traders like round numbers!); if that is passed the target will be $3.06!!

Good luck!!

Dave

Biddy

Yep - 2.945 & 3.06 - lovely round numbers!

Paladin

Cheeky!!!!!!

Actually............. in the currency trading world they ARE considered round numbers: numbers ending in zero at whole cent amounts or to a lesser extent half cent amounts!!!!! Currency usually quoted in 4 decimal places so 3.0000, 3.0600, 2.9450 are thought of as "round" numbers versus say 2.9411, 3.0339 blah blah blah!!!! It's some psychological thingy!!!!

I noticed yesterday each time the market got close to $2.945 it was rebuffed by selling pressure, managing $2.9447 only; but this morning $ 2.9450 has been surpassed. It could still make it to $3.0000 but there are signs starting to show up there may not be much life left in this run up(overbought indicators, negative divergence appearing on MACD blah blah blah!!!). My gut feeling is it WILL push close to $3.0000 but it might take a bit of consolidation first to make it there or even $3.0600.... we shall see!!

Hey Biddy, hope you are doing well; I'm looking forward to us arriving in October; hope we'll get to meet at some point!!!

Cheers mate,
Dave

Biddy

Hi Dave - we'll have been here a year this Sept! Gulp!

I know you're headed futher north for the diving but make sure you drop by here on your travels for a swift half!

Paladin

Sounds like a great idea!!

Dave

planty

Hi Paladin, could go through the magic $3.00 barrier today, at my last check it was $2.9866, I get the general of what your saying but half is just going straight over my head. Keep posting its looks very impressive, and seems to me you know your stuff.

Is anyone tempted to buy now?

Paladin

Cheers for that!

Yep, $2.9870 so far this morning; I would say $3.0000 looks on the cards for today. I'm still sticking with my forecast of the top of the run being in the range $3.000 - £3.0639 (see earlier post on page 2) from a purely technical standpoint. When it gets into this range I shall start looking for signs the top is in OR that we may be in for more run up. Will do my best to get some info on here for people for what it's worth!

Dave

Paladin

Just thought I would add a bit more info regarding the above note and my prior comments on page two of this thread......

I had previously noted the 50% retracement would yield a price target of $3.0639. The reason I noted this is that currency traders like to trade back to 50% of the prior large move and it is something I see happen with huge regularity in my daily work trading the EUR/USD & GBP/USD, so it is a reasonable target to look for.

However, if the fundamentals of the NZ economy(ie interest rate outlook etc) vs the Pound(ie UK interest outlook etc) indicate the NZD could fall even further against the pound it is quite possible we could see the retracement also test the Fibonnacci 61.8% retracement level too. This would yield a target of $3.2175!!!! :scared:

That $3.0000 is going to be a big psychological barrier to get past first though!!
Anyone wanting to watch the action; I recommend checking the charts at HIFX; they're free & update java streaming fashion.

The timeframe to reach this $3.2175 target is something we can't know though! Could be days or weeks! What I can say with 99.9% conviction is that we will see more consolidation before getting that high for sure!! It ain't going straight there like a polaris missile!!!

Therefore as I said previously I'll try to post here if I feel I am seeing the market topping out!

Take care all,
Dave

P.S. NO I don't work for HIFX or have any affiliation to them!!!

isv

Nope. Sure looks a lot better than it did towards the end of last year but I like to focus on the fundamentals. UK interest rates can (will) only go up from here... NZ rates will have to come down to avoid a (very) hard landing. Both economies are starting to go through a bad patch but I suspect NZ will get hit far harder.

So long as the differential between NZ rates and the other major economies decreases the kiwi can only fall (IMO). Factor in the other worrisome news from the NZ economy and I think the kiwi will fall a lot further. With UK interest rate rises now pretty much a certainty I think 3.0 is a safe bet with more to come...

Alan.

Paladin

Couldn't have said it better myself!!
Nice one Alan!

Dave

uk+kiwi

Yes and no. Not a bad rate.

Was tempted this morning to buy a market order contract with a target purchase price of $3.00 (picked last year), but now that I have done a bit more reading, all the professional views seem to indicate that the NZD will continue to weaken over the next 12 months (0.60, 0.59, 0.58 against the USD for the next 3,6 & 12 months), so we'll wait. Having said that, I am going to see HIFX tomorrow morning so we are ready to go from a currency point of view! I have subscribed to their daily spot rate e-mails. Recommend it as an easy way to keep up to speed.

Also, I agree NZ interest rates likely to fall although not sure when or by how much due to the poor antipated economic outlook, thus the govt will want to keep foreign investment and not add fuel to NZ house price rises. NZ's net deficit also projected to increase from 8-10% of GDP over the next year.

Plus for those emigrating, I would personally pursue Alan's kind information sharing re: NZ's recent policy change for a 4 year tax exemption from foreign income, of which interest qualifies (from an offshore account to avoid UK tax).

Everyone's goals will be slightly different so people will make different decisions regarding when and if to change Sterling to NZD. Many will sell up completely and change all their life savings to take to NZ, others will keep more options open which could include leaving some/almost all their money in the UK, for differing reasons.

Buzzy--Bee

Can I just say that everyone should listen to Paladin. I should have sold my US$ when he recommended - they are now 10c lower

Cheers

Buzzy

Spacecake799

Im totally confused by the whole money thing. When we sell our house we will have a lump sum to use to buy a house. Obviously this will be in a bank in the uk. When were ready to come to NZ ( hopefully around sept) what should we do with our money. Sorry for being so thick!