Lockdown

Old Apr 22nd 2020, 11:16 am
  #151  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Millhouse
Let's ask csfd

Realistically, yes they have, but no one in charge can listen or acknowledge this type of analysis if they ever want to stay in power again. It's just politically not acceptable to say that some loss of life is acceptable. Remember, the curve is only being flattened, not eradicated - the area under it is expected to be the same.
I'm sure they have but my point is more directed at you than them. If you think this is an overreaction what are you comparing it against on the other side of the coin? This is the current scenario and this the possible scenario if we don't have a lock down. Surely that's the choice we are making - not what we did during the Spanish flu or last outbreak of winter flu.
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Old Apr 22nd 2020, 11:34 am
  #152  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Millhouse
Not at all, but we must also question any action we do take. Like it or not, we are setting a precedent for the future.
I wonder what other global events gave the government the right to do these sorts of things and what happened after - world wars?
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Old Apr 22nd 2020, 11:41 am
  #153  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Scamp
I wonder what other global events gave the government the right to do these sorts of things and what happened after - world wars?
9-11 and the powers of surveillance come to mind.
2008-2009 and the government manipulation of money supply; rates, austerity and inflation.

general expansion of state is what happened... then populism creeps in, which is a disaster.
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Old Apr 22nd 2020, 11:44 am
  #154  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by weasel decentral
I'm sure they have but my point is more directed at you than them. If you think this is an overreaction what are you comparing it against on the other side of the coin? This is the current scenario and this the possible scenario if we don't have a lock down. Surely that's the choice we are making - not what we did during the Spanish flu or last outbreak of winter flu.
I’ve not run the numbers or seen the numbers in either scenario. Have you? Has anyone?
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Old Apr 22nd 2020, 12:04 pm
  #155  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Millhouse
9-11 and the powers of surveillance come to mind.
2008-2009 and the government manipulation of money supply; rates, austerity and inflation.

general expansion of state is what happened... then populism creeps in, which is a disaster.
Could you argue the manipulation of money supply was to stop more risky alternatives in letting the world just collapse? The subsequent austerity and managing inflation the same?
Guess you could say I'm arguing your point but I'm sure we could find good arguments both ways on all of these events to be fair.

I don't think the UK will turn into North Korea after this though.
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Old Apr 22nd 2020, 12:11 pm
  #156  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Millhouse
I’ve not run the numbers or seen the numbers in either scenario. Have you? Has anyone?
That's my point really, how do you judge this as an overreaction?
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Old Apr 22nd 2020, 12:14 pm
  #157  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Scamp

I don't think the UK will turn into North Korea after this though.
Kim is dead apparently
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Old Apr 22nd 2020, 4:23 pm
  #158  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by weasel decentral
That's my point really, how do you judge this as an overreaction?
World GDP is around $85,000 billion
World population is around 8 billion
GDP/ person = $10,000

Cost of COVID - estimated between 2,000 and 4,000 billion
Worst case number of estimated deaths is between 2 and 50 million
2,000-4000 billion cost / 2-50 million = between 40,000 - 2,000,000 per life saved
So somewhere between 4 and 200 times the GDP per person.

Now if it's mostly the old and ill dying, then maybe we should have used a lower GDP/person as these people could be economically inactive.

Worth it? That's the political decision that no one wants to make.

What we do know is that the economic destruction we are doing will drive millions into poverty and expose them to all sorts of illnesses and premature deaths that won't get accounted for.

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Old Apr 22nd 2020, 6:53 pm
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Millhouse
World GDP is around $85,000 billion
World population is around 8 billion
GDP/ person = $10,000

Cost of COVID - estimated between 2,000 and 4,000 billion
Worst case number of estimated deaths is between 2 and 50 million
2,000-4000 billion cost / 2-50 million = between 40,000 - 2,000,000 per life saved
So somewhere between 4 and 200 times the GDP per person.

Now if it's mostly the old and ill dying, then maybe we should have used a lower GDP/person as these people could be economically inactive.

Worth it? That's the political decision that no one wants to make.

What we do know is that the economic destruction we are doing will drive millions into poverty and expose them to all sorts of illnesses and premature deaths that won't get accounted for.
What I do find fascinating is that we already know a great deal about COVID-19. Despite the media obsession with every young death, in reality it kills old people, and not just old people but old people with significant health problems. It's why the average age of death is quite high, hovering around 80. We do know it kills a small number of younger people with substantial existing health problems. We know the fatality rate overall for young people regardless of health is well below 1% (meaning for healthy young people it's inconsequential and just as rare as the healthy young man who drops dead of a heart attack at age 40).

This notion that some people have that we're at war with a virus is silly. The virus cannot be vanquished. It's not an enemy that can be humbled and reformed into obedience. It's here. We have to deal with it. A vaccine in due time (if one is found) will help, but it won't end the virus no more than the regular flu vaccine defeated the flu. Herd immunity is the most likely long term outlook. The one size fits all mass shutdown was an attempt to declare war on the virus and we have seen the obscene economic toll paid so far, and when all's said and done, didn't really save lives. This one size fits all mass shutdown did have the advantage of buying some time but that time has also showed us the virus is far less deadly for the larger population than earlier believed. It has always been obvious to me from the early days the pragmatic approach was to quarantine the care homes and identified high-risk people still living in their own homes. Instead of devoting so much resources to mass testing of general populations, test everyone who works for a care home, and test them daily to prevent asymptomatic people from transferring the virus to the care homes or hospitals. And let everyone else get on with life.


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Old Apr 23rd 2020, 12:50 am
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Millhouse
IC, Satwa and Al Quoz is at the top of my list for the next wave of total shutdown and cleaning. Then, if there is a God, it will be the ***** at the marina, just because.

What I hear coming out of some of the labour camps at Al Quoz isn't so great. What you have to remember is that this is where your supermarket assistant and security guard lives.
I've been in touch with my Nepali tea boys, concerned about them and whst they are living in. As said before - if I hadn't actually been there, I'd think he was exaggerating how bad it is.

Genuinely would rather be in prison here in the UK, than a labour camp during Covid.
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Old Apr 23rd 2020, 4:55 am
  #161  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Millhouse
World GDP is around $85,000 billion
World population is around 8 billion
GDP/ person = $10,000

Cost of COVID - estimated between 2,000 and 4,000 billion
Worst case number of estimated deaths is between 2 and 50 million
2,000-4000 billion cost / 2-50 million = between 40,000 - 2,000,000 per life saved
So somewhere between 4 and 200 times the GDP per person.

Now if it's mostly the old and ill dying, then maybe we should have used a lower GDP/person as these people could be economically inactive.

Worth it? That's the political decision that no one wants to make.

What we do know is that the economic destruction we are doing will drive millions into poverty and expose them to all sorts of illnesses and premature deaths that won't get accounted for.
When you say cost of COVID, is this direct expenditure to mitigate the virus, or loss in GDP as a result of lockdown?

Last edited by csdf; Apr 23rd 2020 at 4:59 am.
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Old Apr 23rd 2020, 4:56 am
  #162  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH
It has always been obvious to me from the early days
And so we begin.
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Old Apr 23rd 2020, 5:27 am
  #163  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by csdf
When you say cost of COVID, is this direct expenditure to mitigate the virus, or loss in GDP as a result of lockdown?
The US stimulus package is estimate at 2T, the U.K. around 0.5T and that’s just two countries.
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Old Apr 23rd 2020, 5:37 am
  #164  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Millhouse
World GDP is around $85,000 billion
World population is around 8 billion
GDP/ person = $10,000

Cost of COVID - estimated between 2,000 and 4,000 billion
Worst case number of estimated deaths is between 2 and 50 million
2,000-4000 billion cost / 2-50 million = between 40,000 - 2,000,000 per life saved
So somewhere between 4 and 200 times the GDP per person.

Now if it's mostly the old and ill dying, then maybe we should have used a lower GDP/person as these people could be economically inactive.

Worth it? That's the political decision that no one wants to make.

What we do know is that the economic destruction we are doing will drive millions into poverty and expose them to all sorts of illnesses and premature deaths that won't get accounted for.
I like these back of envelope calculations - so to play advocate on the other side using the same figures.

Lets take worst case of 50 million deaths times your GDP per person of 10,000USD that's 500 Billion per year. Conservatively giving them 6 years life expectancy we reach the equivalent 3,000 Billion spread over 6 years. I guess this is the flattening of the financial curve.
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Old Apr 23rd 2020, 6:17 am
  #165  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Millhouse
The US stimulus package is estimate at 2T, the U.K. around 0.5T and that’s just two countries.
Understood, but that stimulus package isn't disappearing into thin air, it's being spent and injected into the economy and ultimately into people's hands. Whether it's the right people is another matter.
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