Lockdown

Old Apr 19th 2020, 11:54 am
  #121  
Lost in BE Cyberspace
 
Scamp's Avatar
 
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 27,814
Scamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by co durham boy View Post
Agreed mate , not being able to run or cycle is killing me but you've got to adapt and do the right thing . There's two ways this will go at the weekend and that's a full shut down or a slight relaxation due to movement during Ramadan.

One things for sure, business needs to get moving again and quickly .
I just can't see a good outcome from getting caught doing that. A fine is probably the best result, but why? What's the point? I love golf with all my heart but jeeze. It's 5-6 weeks or so since I've played, it's not the end of the world.

Scamp is offline  
Old Apr 19th 2020, 3:37 pm
  #122  
BE Forum Addict
 
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 3,520
DXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by csdf View Post

Updated piccies. Same data in both charts, just the right hand one uses a log scale.
In terms of doubling rates, US still numbah one. Plucky UK getting close though. For reference, in the UAE the doubling rate is roughly every 7.5 days but there's not really enough deaths (mash'allah) to have proper stats.
The America data is skewed because it's a much bigger country so the individual numbers seem high. Combine the data of Italy, France and Spain because then you get a comparable population. And the Americans are two weeks behind the curve of Italy and Spain and France. On a per capita basis the Americans have far fewer cases. And if you look at America outside NYC, it's drastically even lower.

Everyone across the world seems to be following the same rapid rise then peak and then gradual decline regardless of the severity of the shutdowns. That's what the Swedish epidemiologist is saying to justify Sweden's lack of a shutdown.
DXBtoDOH is offline  
Old Apr 19th 2020, 7:42 pm
  #123  
BE Forum Addict
 
csdf's Avatar
 
Joined: Jun 2010
Location: Abu Dhabi
Posts: 1,155
csdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Lockdown

It's not really about the absolute numbers, it's about the doubling rates as a measure of how effective the infection is being controlled. The US is 47 days in since its 100th case (3rd Feb). In that time, cases have grown 7,470 times (3.9 days doubling rate). If we add Spain, France and Italy together, then their combined cases have grown by 1,430 times over the same period (about 4.6 days doubling rate). Going back to the US, let's look at America outside NYC: continental US rates excluding NYC have increased by 5,930 times, so still pretty terrible, with a doubling rate still below 4 days.

Incidentally, the US is not two weeks behind: the 100th case in the US was on the 2nd March The 100th case in France was 29th Feb and Spain around the 3rd of March, like the US. Italy's 100th case was around 23rd March, so at best the US is one week "behind" Italy. UK 100th case was around 4th March, so most countries started off on the same trajectory; it's just how effectively things were put in place in those early days that has caused the big differences we see today. For an example of the other extreme, Singapore is 49 days in from its 100th case (29th Feb, like France) and cases have grown by ~60 times.
csdf is offline  
Old Apr 19th 2020, 8:23 pm
  #124  
BE Forum Addict
 
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 3,520
DXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by csdf View Post
It's not really about the absolute numbers, it's about the doubling rates as a measure of how effective the infection is being controlled. The US is 47 days in since its 100th case (3rd Feb). In that time, cases have grown 7,470 times (3.9 days doubling rate). If we add Spain, France and Italy together, then their combined cases have grown by 1,430 times over the same period (about 4.6 days doubling rate). Going back to the US, let's look at America outside NYC: continental US rates excluding NYC have increased by 5,930 times, so still pretty terrible, with a doubling rate still below 4 days.

Incidentally, the US is not two weeks behind: the 100th case in the US was on the 2nd March The 100th case in France was 29th Feb and Spain around the 3rd of March, like the US. Italy's 100th case was around 23rd March, so at best the US is one week "behind" Italy. UK 100th case was around 4th March, so most countries started off on the same trajectory; it's just how effectively things were put in place in those early days that has caused the big differences we see today. For an example of the other extreme, Singapore is 49 days in from its 100th case (29th Feb, like France) and cases have grown by ~60 times.
What's the infamous saying? Lies, lies and d*mned statistics. In other words you're manipulating figures to tell you a story that suits your biases.

The US is already talking about lifting their lockdowns. The governor of New York is saying they've peaked and now seem to going back down, and that's the worst hit state with half the deaths and cases in the entire nation. They wouldn't be saying those things if the pandemic was still escalating.

Every western nation is following the same curve regardless of what they did. All this talk about number of days is just politicking. Which gives Sweden much credit.
DXBtoDOH is offline  
Old Apr 20th 2020, 5:38 am
  #125  
BE Forum Addict
 
csdf's Avatar
 
Joined: Jun 2010
Location: Abu Dhabi
Posts: 1,155
csdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Lockdown

I mean, I picked the figures that you specifically asked for. You said "Combine the data of Italy, France and Spain because then you get a comparable population". I did that, and showed that the US is still accelerating faster. You said "And the Americans are two weeks behind the curve of Italy and Spain and France. " The data shows that they all hit 100 cases at roughly the same time, with the exception of Italy which was a week earlier. You said "And if you look at America outside NYC, it's drastically even lower.". I took out NYC from the US figures and the result is that the US is still accelerating drastically faster than Europe.

I honestly don't mind a debate, but it's not right to make statements that are completely at odds with the data.

Incidentally, "Which gives Sweden much credit.". Sweden has 20% more deaths per capita than the US, with a 40% lower infection rate. Scandinavian efficiency at its finest.

Last edited by csdf; Apr 20th 2020 at 6:10 am.
csdf is offline  
Old Apr 20th 2020, 6:14 am
  #126  
Lost in BE Cyberspace
 
Scamp's Avatar
 
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 27,814
Scamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
What's the infamous saying? Lies, lies and d*mned statistics. In other words you're manipulating figures to tell you a story that suits your biases.

The US is already talking about lifting their lockdowns. The governor of New York is saying they've peaked and now seem to going back down, and that's the worst hit state with half the deaths and cases in the entire nation. They wouldn't be saying those things if the pandemic was still escalating.

Every western nation is following the same curve regardless of what they did. All this talk about number of days is just politicking. Which gives Sweden much credit.
Credit to Sweden for being top-10 in the world for most deaths per million population.

Kudos. Huge prizes for that performance. Credit where it's due.
Scamp is offline  
Old Apr 20th 2020, 6:55 am
  #127  
BE Forum Addict
 
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,900
carcajou has a reputation beyond reputecarcajou has a reputation beyond reputecarcajou has a reputation beyond reputecarcajou has a reputation beyond reputecarcajou has a reputation beyond reputecarcajou has a reputation beyond reputecarcajou has a reputation beyond reputecarcajou has a reputation beyond reputecarcajou has a reputation beyond reputecarcajou has a reputation beyond reputecarcajou has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Lockdown

Just now I came up with 100,000 more cases in the European Union than in the US, and that of course excludes the UK, Switzerland (which has the highest per-capita number of cases), Norway etc. US-EU is the appropriate comparison with a similar population, not US-France/Italy/Spain. France/Italy/Spain present a combined similar number of cases to the US but only with about 60% of the population. The European Union also has more than double the deaths.

There has been a significant flattening in the US, not an acceleration. I would far rather be there riding it out than anywhere in the European Union.



carcajou is offline  
Old Apr 20th 2020, 1:40 pm
  #128  
BE Forum Addict
 
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 3,520
DXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
Credit to Sweden for being top-10 in the world for most deaths per million population.

Kudos. Huge prizes for that performance. Credit where it's due.
Statistics is fascinating, isn't it? The different stories you can tell with the same data. Numbers as of this morning:

US (#1 #1 #1 #1 yee haw!), with 40,565 deaths (124 deaths per million)
Italy: 23,660 deaths, 391 deaths per million
Spain: 20,852 deaths, 446 deaths per million
France: 19,718 deaths, 294 deaths per million.
UK: 16,060 deaths, 241.5 deaths per million
Belgium: 5,828 deaths, 510 deaths per million
Iran: 5,209, 63.7 per million* (suspect data)
Germany: 4,642, 56 per million * (still not fully clear if Germany counts deaths differently and excludes many)
Netherlands: 3,684 deaths, 213.8 per million
Sweden: 1,540 deaths, 151.2 per million.

Sure, Sweden falls into the top 10 countries but only because the numbers enormously drops after UK, and for a nation that didn't shut down they have very few deaths relatively speaking. 1,540 unfortunate deaths. As a comparison point, about 1,500 people also die of the regular flu in Sweden in a given year.
DXBtoDOH is offline  
Old Apr 20th 2020, 1:50 pm
  #129  
Lost in BE Cyberspace
 
Scamp's Avatar
 
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 27,814
Scamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
Statistics is fascinating, isn't it? The different stories you can tell with the same data. Numbers as of this morning:

US (#1 #1 #1 #1 yee haw!), with 40,565 deaths (124 deaths per million)
Italy: 23,660 deaths, 391 deaths per million
Spain: 20,852 deaths, 446 deaths per million
France: 19,718 deaths, 294 deaths per million.
UK: 16,060 deaths, 241.5 deaths per million
Belgium: 5,828 deaths, 510 deaths per million
Iran: 5,209, 63.7 per million* (suspect data)
Germany: 4,642, 56 per million * (still not fully clear if Germany counts deaths differently and excludes many)
Netherlands: 3,684 deaths, 213.8 per million
Sweden: 1,540 deaths, 151.2 per million.

Sure, Sweden falls into the top 10 countries but only because the numbers enormously drops after UK, and for a nation that didn't shut down they have very few deaths relatively speaking. 1,540 unfortunate deaths. As a comparison point, about 1,500 people also die of the regular flu in Sweden in a given year.
So 1,540 in let's say, a month, would be 18,000+ in a year, if nothing changes either way. Could get worse, could get better.
Also, look by cases and deaths ratio, even if that data is not the right way to predict death (I am not opening that can), doing so compared to all the others....Sweden is no paradise.
Maybe it's a cultural thing in Sweden not to get close to others? Maybe they're more socially responsible? Maybe those elements have helped their spread be slower than others?
'Lockdown' means so many different things. We're permit based and only one allowed per 3 days, so that's different to being allowed out for exercise. Nothing is constant so I think the praise for some positive news is great but again just based on playing with stats that can't contain the qualitative information.
Looking at the unrest in the US and France it becomes clear that people can't be contained for too long (again, depends on lockdowns and severity) before they just have enough of it. Maybe we'll end up in a shift in attitudes in the UK for example where people moderate themselves sensibly for a while before things return to any sort of new / old normality.
Scamp is offline  
Old Apr 20th 2020, 2:48 pm
  #130  
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Thread Starter
 
Millhouse's Avatar
 
Joined: Aug 2009
Location: Disneyland, Dubai
Posts: 15,877
Millhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
Statistics is fascinating, isn't it? The different stories you can tell with the same data. Numbers as of this morning:

US (#1 #1 #1 #1 yee haw!), with 40,565 deaths (124 deaths per million)
Italy: 23,660 deaths, 391 deaths per million
Spain: 20,852 deaths, 446 deaths per million
France: 19,718 deaths, 294 deaths per million.
UK: 16,060 deaths, 241.5 deaths per million
Belgium: 5,828 deaths, 510 deaths per million
Iran: 5,209, 63.7 per million* (suspect data)
Germany: 4,642, 56 per million * (still not fully clear if Germany counts deaths differently and excludes many)
Netherlands: 3,684 deaths, 213.8 per million
Sweden: 1,540 deaths, 151.2 per million.

Sure, Sweden falls into the top 10 countries but only because the numbers enormously drops after UK, and for a nation that didn't shut down they have very few deaths relatively speaking. 1,540 unfortunate deaths. As a comparison point, about 1,500 people also die of the regular flu in Sweden in a given year.
You're on to a losing argument if you try and argue corona deaths against baseline / flu deaths. For some reason, people don't want to recognise that people die in the usual course of life. My mum really struggles hearing how many people are dying as she cannot visualize the number of people - the reality is that it's peaking at only a 50% increase over the normal run rate - and that peak is only for a few weeks. It's not like we all know of a death in our network each day, which is why most (if not all) don't know anyone who has died from corona.

Millhouse is offline  
Old Apr 21st 2020, 7:02 am
  #131  
BE Forum Addict
 
csdf's Avatar
 
Joined: Jun 2010
Location: Abu Dhabi
Posts: 1,155
csdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
You're on to a losing argument if you try and argue corona deaths against baseline / flu deaths. For some reason, people don't want to recognise that people die in the usual course of life. My mum really struggles hearing how many people are dying as she cannot visualize the number of people - the reality is that it's peaking at only a 50% increase over the normal run rate - and that peak is only for a few weeks. It's not like we all know of a death in our network each day, which is why most (if not all) don't know anyone who has died from corona.
Here's a chart showing your chance of dying (from any cause) vs the chance of dying if you catch covid19...from the age of 40 onwards, the chances are roughly equal. In other words, if you catch covid19 your chances of dying in the year roughly double. Put another way, a 14 day case of covid19 is roughly as deadly as all the other things that might kill you, over the course of a year, added together.


csdf is offline  
Old Apr 21st 2020, 7:29 am
  #132  
Lost in BE Cyberspace
 
Scamp's Avatar
 
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 27,814
Scamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
It's not like we all know of a death in our network each day, which is why most (if not all) don't know anyone who has died from corona.
True, but a friend recently lost his boss to it. 41yrs old I think, asthmatic. I only met him once, maybe twice, I'm sure lots of people know him locally here, especially through the wife and sons. It won't take long before lots of people know someone who has died.

It's a weirdly realistic, slightly horrible but accurate measure, I suppose.
Scamp is offline  
Old Apr 21st 2020, 8:15 am
  #133  
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Thread Starter
 
Millhouse's Avatar
 
Joined: Aug 2009
Location: Disneyland, Dubai
Posts: 15,877
Millhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
True, but a friend recently lost his boss to it. 41yrs old I think, asthmatic. I only met him once, maybe twice, I'm sure lots of people know him locally here, especially through the wife and sons. It won't take long before lots of people know someone who has died.

It's a weirdly realistic, slightly horrible but accurate measure, I suppose.
41 and asthmatic... hummm, that's me.
Millhouse is offline  
Old Apr 21st 2020, 8:25 am
  #134  
Lost in BE Cyberspace
 
Scamp's Avatar
 
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 27,814
Scamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
41 and asthmatic... hummm, that's me.
Obviously let's hope you don't get it.

I know a few family friends who've had it and recovered, not pleasant but not the extremes we get in the news.
Scamp is offline  
Old Apr 21st 2020, 8:51 am
  #135  
BE Forum Addict
 
csdf's Avatar
 
Joined: Jun 2010
Location: Abu Dhabi
Posts: 1,155
csdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond reputecsdf has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Lockdown

I think asthmatics generally are under-represented in the casualties, to the surprise (and relief) of lots of people. Seems that cardiovascular ailments (heart disease etc) are much worse in terms of predisposing you to severe illness.
csdf is offline  

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information -

Copyright © 2023 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.