What is likely is anyone's guess

This all takes time, first a Scotland referendum (should it ever happen - if & when), a YES vote outcome, the separation, then a divorce. Likely not less than 5 years from now & after the UK itself gets its divorce from the EU would there be any glimmer of light Scotland getting EU membership IMO.

From now till 2022, who knows what will happen, maybe another, or few EU countries go the referendum vote.

What about a total EU collapse?

My guess is we'll see a couple more nations vote out by the end of the year. If so, the EU is done.

Particularly if Germany is one of them, when the voters realise they'll have to fund the EU all by themselves now the UK has gone.

Basically, Scotland wants to join the EU to get on the gravy train.

Other EU members might not find 'hey, let us join so you can give us money' a compelling reason to let them in.

Agree, for one reason that the UK's net contribution of £12.9 billion/last fiscal year, around £35 million a day [source Telegraph] will either have to come from the other countries or its a collapse.

Funding transfers depend on available budget, absence of which, does not mean certain collapse. It is not the only reason countries join.

As I see it in simple terms - being a member of the EU is political, controlling & costly just to be a club member

Something for the UK might be the EEA?

Being in the EEA without all of the cost & the political BS is probably a better deal, says Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein, allows them to be part of the EU’s single market

http://www.efta.int/eea/eea-agreemen...basic-features

For the UK, why not have the 'sweat deal' that Switzerland has?

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/atyour...FTU_6.5.3.html

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Didn't I just say that to you in post#144 in the future thread?

It won't be EEA membership because you have to be on the EEA council so UKIP will make hay out of that. It will be like what the Swiss have got, Boris et al can sell that. Switzerland is full of bankers and we have big banks too, bollock bollock. Farage is even spinning it that way already blathering on about Singapore.

No-one wants the UK to be compared to Norway.... or Iceland... I wonder why?

Yeah, can't even beat Iceland in a soccer match. Clearly the English are the Master Race and are superior.

The only problem with the Swiss comparison is they recently voted to leave Schengen and their relationship with the EU is on a knife edge. This is why the EU won't compromise on free movement, they can't, in order to maintain their position with the Swiss. If they let the UK out of free movement, the Swiss will demand the same. And the Swiss voted to leave for pretty much the same reason, immigrants stealing jobs and running up house prices.

So anyway, how Gove will spin that one is, well if Turkey joins we just won't let them in, blah blah.

This idea that there is going to be some seismic shift in British law and practice is total nonsense. It will be 1% substance and 99% spin. It will have to be if only to keep the Scottish on board.

It seems certain the UK will have to keep contributing to the EU budget. The EU isn't going to budge on that one, the French have already said it will be a requirement for access to the common market. Note that Farage has been recently quoted saying the bus slogan with more money for the NHS was a mistake and UKIP wouldn't have done that.

Because even he knows the scale of bullshit involved in that claim. The EU will insist on roughly the same total amount the UK puts in now, minus a couple of million for not paying their MEPs anymore and 350 mil becomes around 185 mil if you take the rebate into account, that's how it will be spun.

That won't work.

Swiss banks are not allowed to sell products into the EU

London isn't going to want that.

The EU Council won't even meet Nicola. A lot of the member countries have their own separatists so don't want to encourage these.

Who knows who will win within the EU. Depends when Merkel makes her mind up. The federalists seem to be in the ascendancy but Junkers could end up getting the boot. It may make sense for the UK to leave the article 50 trigger for some time, certainly have an election first and see what happens in the French elections next year.

The eastern europeans I've met in Canada are generally highly suspicious of the EU and see membership as being locked into a de facto German empire but are concerned about Russia at the same time so it's something of a Hobsons choice for them.

In the meantime anyone in one of the client states who buys a BMW, VW etc is just adding to the economic power of one country to dictate to everyone else further. That's a choice for them.

Immigrants guilty of running up house prices in Switzerland might include
Nikki Lauda, Nigel Mansell, Gunther Saks and Paris Hilton. I suggest it's a problem more similar to that the UK has with immigrants driving up the price of Premier League football clubs than any perceived issue with the UK housing market.

Yeah well it won't be exactly the same, it will be somewhere inbetween the Norwegian and Swiss versions of doing it. Won't be EEA but will be EEA in all but name, i.e. the UK will simply not sit on the council.

They'll explain it as being similar to what the Swiss have got but it will differ in some details.

Bremain ! Surprisingly, just came across that one today.

Today's London protest is an encouraging sign. There's something in the idea that the non-voters probably wanted the status quo, but of course, not how democracy works.

The Guardian had Brexpat today.

I saw "Breverse" on a photo from the London demo.

I suppose all you people read the Graun but just in case you missed Jonathan Freeland's piece this morning https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...in-over-brexit