Peter_in_Hungary

Other figures I have seen have counted the number of deaths above the 5 year average and those in excess of the average number are counted as covid related and number about 55,000. So the 85 year old quoted above could well have had his life cut short by covid-19 and without the virus may have gone on to 95 years old. IMO the deaths in excess of the 5 year average probably represents a better picture of the impact of covid-19. Everyone who had covid-19 and died would have died anyway...........eventually. The fact that the virus hastened the event by weeks or decades in my book still counts as a covid-19 related death.

scrubbedexpat142

Just in...

NobodyHasThisNameYet

The virus is hastening the deaths of those with serious underlying health issues......... sometimes.
A 77 year old family member of mine (multiple stroke victim + serious lung disease) recovered fine, with barely even symptoms. Another one (97 years old) has recovered just fine with barely any symptoms. In all, five in my family aged from 71 to 97 have had the virus and are fine.

The virus has been killing people in care homes, as care homes are where people go to spend their last days as they are too frail to manage alone (average life expectancy is 11 months from entry).

What the virus has been doing is to hasten the deaths by weeks or months of (overwhelmingly) elderly people who would have died this year anyway.
If a person aged 85 was frail enough to have had their death exacerbated by this virus, they would not have made it to age 95.
These people are not active in the economy.
This virus is less deadly than the yearly 'flu.
The virtual shutdown of the health service has, of course, led to the deaths of many people who have not had access to healthcare. There is already a spike of young people entering A&E with advancing cancer, because they were unable to get a diagnosis in March or April.
There are many elderly people who have died from heart attacks and strokes as they were unable or unwilling to seek medical assistance due to the house arrest and fear of catching the virus in hospital. These are excess deaths.

Since the virus has hastened the deaths of some elderly people who would have been dying later on this year, what we will see is a dip in deaths from this demographic later this year, as some of them have already died, just as they do every year when the flu goes round.

The government's figures show a maximum of 1300 deaths so far purely from the virus. The "official" figure of 42000 shows people who may, or may not, have died with the virus as a contributory factor.

Forecast from the economic damaged caused by shutting down the economy is 120,000+ extra deaths.
The economic damage has permanently reduced everyone's life expectancies (including people who are children now), as a lower standard of living means a lower life expectancy.
It has increased the chance of death from crime.
It has increased the chance of death due to war.
It has increased the chance of death from suicide (they are topping themselves in record numbers in the US)
It has ensured that people will die while waiting for treatment, now that the health service is permanently damaged.

If you look at the attached picture, it shows which age groups are vulnerable to the virus. Consider that the average life expectancy in the UK is 81. Oh, it won't let me post the pic, but it shows those who are dying are overwhelmingly above this age.


If you look at the figures in the US for deaths from pneumonia (don't have them to hand), it shows that these deaths have fallen off a cliff this year. Have they managed to cure this cause of death, or are these being included as covid deaths?

The governments made a huge mistake by placing everyone under house arrest. The frail should have been shielded, if they wanted to be, supported by the rest of us.

By locking us all down, they have killed far more of us than the virus ever could. That's representative democracy for you.

scrubbedexpat142

Source: Worldometer

ETA: It was Hungary that was locked down, not Sweden!

Corrected table -

NobodyHasThisNameYet

Are their recording criteria the same?
How many months less is the Hungarian life expectancy now due to the economic damage caused by lockdown?
How many extra Hungarians will die due to the effects of the economic damage caused by lockdown?

Since the virus only poses a threat to those with serious underlying health issues (which means the very elderly for the most part), what is the point of placing those not at risk, under house arrest?
That's not a health-related course of action; it is tyranny.

scrubbedexpat142

Today's figures -

Sweden - 940/48

Hungary - 1/2

Think I'll take a bit of tyranny.

Source: Worldometer

FenTiger

Latest from a pet air transporting service is they are not yet up and running. Transporting by road sounds like the only option but still waiting for a response from some of these companies. The worse case scenario is we may have to rehome our dog and it will be the most heart breaking decision of our lives! Hopefully, today I will make more enquiries. We have a contact in Hungary but are unsure about how well our dog will be looked after. I also have a contact in Bulgaria, who is friends of a Brit living there and they transport rescued dogs from Bulgaria to the UK. I am not sure if he would be a better option as he's, I believe, licenced to transport pets.

The current situation all around the world is extraordinary and our feelings are that our exit plan has been turned upside down through no fault of our own.

NobodyHasThisNameYet

Ok.
Let's examine the logic of this.

1. I don't know how old you are or your state of health, but that doesn't matter.
If you are seriously unhealthy and at elevated chance of death in the near future, then you may wish to isolate yourself in order to protect yourself from contact with someone carrying the virus.
Therefore, if you wish to isolate yourself, then why would you wish people with no or little risk of death, from being placed under house arrest themselves?
Why would you want people who do not wish to be placed under house arrest, to be placed under house arrest?

2. The economic damage caused by lockdown causes more deaths than the virus itself, over time.
Therefore, if your priority is to avoid deaths, then you do not support lockdown.

3. But that's not all....
This virus poses a risk to the very elderly, but with lockdown, everyone's life is placed in danger, since the economic damage will cause deaths indiscriminately among all age groups.
So for example, a grandparent supporting a general lockdown of everyone, is actually supporting a greater risk of death for their own grandchildren.

Never let fear dictate the way that you think......

NobodyHasThisNameYet

Here's a chart which shows which ages ranges are at most risk from the virus.
It does not show actual death numbers, as the chart uses the official figures (for April) rather than the actual figures.


The chart shows that those active in the workforce are not at risk from this virus.
It shows that neither children, nor their teachers, are at risk from this virus.
The chart shows that those above the average life expectancy, are at risk from having their lives shortened by days, weeks, or months, but only if they have "co-morbidities", which means serious health problems. Elderly people who are healthy, can survive this virus quite easily.

scrubbedexpat142

Which is exactly what you are doing.

NobodyHasThisNameYet

Of course it's not what I'm doing. It would not be reasonable for me to be afraid of this virus, as I stand more chance of being struck by lightning than being killed by this virus, and I am not afraid to go outside, so since I am not afriad of being struck by lightning, I am therefore not afraid of the virus.

scrubbedexpat142

No, your afraid of the economic consequences of the lockdown. Also forgetting that a high infection, hospitalisation and death rate also have economic consequences.

As for logic you stated a desire to come to Hungary, which values its people (which it does), forgetting that Hungary is a "representative democracy" (which you appear to despise) and whose Government imposed the "tyranny" of a lockdown.

By the way average deaths by lightning in the UK are about 50, annually. Over 40000 have died in the UK, so far, directly or indirectly, as a consequence of C19.

Of course, if you consider the elderly AND those younger people who are vulnerable due to asthma, diabetes, etc as dispensable, fair enough.

Peter_in_Hungary

Boris Johnson spent time in ICU and it was touch and go as to whether he needed to be put on a respirator. If he is classed as very elderly I don't know where that puts me? (70+)
Quote
Older people, and people with pre-existing medical conditions (such as obesity, asthma, diabetes, heart disease) appear to be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with the virus.
End quote
Quote
28.7% of adults in England are obese.
End quote
Add a bit more for the 8% with asthma and a bit more for the 4.5% of those over 40 with COPD and you start getting a high proportion of the population.

From the above I conclude that a high %age of the UK population would be (is) at high risk of becoming severely ill with covid 19. Just the obese section is almost 30% never mind the rest of the risk factors.

IMO Hungary got it right and the UK and Sweden got it wrong. In fact I recall Sweden admitting it got it wrong

christmasoompa

We have two friends who've died of it, both healthy men in their early 40's with no underlying health conditions whatsoever.

christmasoompa

So are you living your normal life despite the virus? Have you been on public transport or travelled recently for instance?