Garbatellamike

Not good at organising things, how can you say that? They have in short order organised a bank shut down, a stock exchange closure, a harmonious position of 18 EZ finance ministers, despair across the developed world etc etc.

All of that can't have been easy to organise......

Maybe1day

Write off their debt, Insist on new organisation and bung em a load more dosh.
The Banks have recieved far far to much in bail outs in recent years and they still do what they like. Stuff the Banks they are rotten through and through. thanks to the US and their irresponsible behaviour I have personally lost over 200K. Screw them, lets go back to gold and bartering.
W Greece, stuff the troika, the Euro along with Obama and Lagarde

Garbatellamike

clears throat

amideislas

C'mon.. tell us how you really feel.

InVinoVeritas

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. At the time the main concern was contagion so they were more concerned at preventing a meltdown than worrying about Greece's long term financial interests.

Much water has gone under the bridge then and Greece could have been a prime candidate for debt forgiveness or restructuring had they themselves got on with implementing the previously agreed reforms.

Of great concern, even if they vote yes on Sunday is that, for some time, there has been a perception abroad that there will eventually be a Grexit. This has resulted in a massive disinvestment by overseas banks and corporations.

None of the proposals thus far looks likely to reverse this trend, in fact Syriza's planned tax increases would have reinforced the flight of investment.

Anyhow the Greek situation will become a minor niggle (although not for the Greek people) once it becomes clear that Varoufakis' predictions of Armaggedon fail to materialise.

All eyes will soon be on China, remember you read it here

InVinoVeritas

A very interesting financial analysis on Bloomberg today (relax Eric, it's a chart and not a table). It attempts to show where the drachma would likely be today if Greece had not joined the Euro and therefore the natural depreciation should Greece vote no and leave the Euro.

You would need to compare the country with Indonesia, Mexico etc to get an idea of what life would be like in Greece now had they taken this option at the time.

What Would a Greek Drachma Look Like? Painful. - Bloomberg Business

Red Eric

I see my trusty Pythia Predikta™ hasn't disappointed so far.

Good of the big bazookas of Europe to take time out of their busy schedules to do a bit of campaigning - Juncker did a great job for the No vote, I thought.

A very foreseeable tactic - claiming that a No vote means no to the euro and the EU. Pure scaremongering of course - it means nothing of the sort. Even Angie said so, though she did stand by and let her deputy make some rather outrageous and disturbing claims.

When Dijsselbloem has stopped staring at that door trying to work out whether it's open or closed (just a thought - maybe it's not a door but a jar?), he might be able to give his opinion, if he can form one over the rather more complex matter of the wording on the referendum.

Plenty more to come over the next few days. Maybe a special envoy or two to be sent to Greece? How about some celebrities giving messages as well as the politicians. All a bit difficult to organise at such short notice but they ought to be able to orchestrate something in a crisis.

Bloomberg in on the act, eh? Well - who would've thought it?

It is all a bit puzzling though. I mean - the offer only stands until the end of today, then it's off the table, Greece defaults and game over. Isn't it? That's what the creditors said - hope they weren't lying.

Garbatellamike

Still keeping the belief Eric despite all the evidence, good on you mate!

Heroic little Greece standing up to the looting Eurocrats eh!

BTW it is not puzzling at all as it is the Bailout 2.2 extension expires today and all this fuss has been just about an extension not Bailout 3.0, which can be agreed as long as the Greek people vote sensibly.

Of course Varoufakeit has stated that bailout 3.0 is unnecessary as he is an economic genius who is already running a primary surplus. Whilst I tend to agree with you that the Eurocrats are probably lying we already know for sure what a bunch of clueless liars Syriza are.......

Red Eric

In which case
what will be over before the referendum? When you posted that, it had already been announced that there was to be no extension to the current bailout (though there is a decision pending on a request made by Tsipras above Eurogroup FinMin level if I remember correctly).

Or have you backtracked on that since the various announcements made yesterday show that the major players are taking a huge interest in the result, which, as per my prediction, they are trying to influence (though I must admit that even I didn't think they'd have the gall to be so blatant about it).

Maybe1day

Just saw a new Greek Opinion poll result 17% Yes, 83% No, Source RAI3 10:15
I guess there will be 1000s of these now going better than Nov5 rockets.

Garbatellamike

Um the bailout will be over and the deadline for paying the IMF is today - I thought you'd know that. Then we need to see the reaction to the economic failure of epic proportion that has led Greece to become the first developed Nation to default on IMF loans. Shame on them.....

No is the short answer. However, 24 hours is a long time in politics


Unfortunately due to the inepitude of Syriza and the relentess Eurofanatisim of the Commission, the people of Greece are being caught between a rock and a hard place (the rock being more failed simple austerity and the hard place being more failed simplistic socialism). Oh for some genuine reform instead of repeating 2 failed tactics but that's not the choice the Greek people are being offered.

PS: given the polls so far, have you changed your mind on the improbability of a "yes" referendum yet?

Just one more thought prior to the referendum...One mustn't forget, while Syriza only received about 26% of the vote in the election earlier this year. Its majority in parliament is primarily a result of the 50 "bonus seats" the election winner gets in Greece. In other words, it actually doesn't have a particularly solid majority of the electorate behind it, and the referendum gambit may well turn out to be one bridge too far.

EMR

Quelle suprise !!

As expected the current government will resign if the referendum goes against them leaving someone else to sort out the mess thay have made of the negotiations with the EU and IMF.

Garbatellamike

Still the rest of the day for them to see sense as the bailout has not yet expired.......

Red Eric

Bit difficult to pass judgement at the moment Mike, due to the number of rumours swirling about.


One possible scenario, outlined by Varoufakis after he'd been sent for an early bath at the last Eurogroup meeting, was that if the creditors came up with a substantially better offer, the government could actually recommend voting Yes in the referendum. In which case I'd obviously change my mind.


If things stay as they are, however, with the government opposed to the deal on offer, I'd probably take the step of downgrading my opinion a notch or two from highly improbable to possible but highly undesirable with a negative outlook.


One does have to take into account, I suppose, the fact that pretty much all the Greek news outlets are anti-Syriza, so the weight of the campaign from both inside and outside Greece under the latter circumstance will be anti-government and, as you rightly say, they also didn't have a majority at the election. But they are showing a commitment to transparency and to democracy, as promised.

Garbatellamike

I think I agree with most of that Eric.

Syriza's commitment to democracy has never been in question for sure it is their strongest suite and fair play to them.

On the otherhand I do have to say that transparancy has not been their forte so far (classical British understatement there) but maybe the leopard is changing its spots on that one - time will tell.

I believe things will be much clearer by 0100 tomorrow morning when the bailout expires and the IMF loan is due. I.E. there is still time for compromise, which unfortunately will be more extend and pretend, and not the transformational reform actually needed to fix things.