amideislas

So, the time limit has passed. Greece is technically the bearer of the largest IMF default in history.

But as the politicians and lenders have said all along, "the door is open".

So it's far from over. The 'referendum' is every bit a confidence vote for the current government as it is a vote for the Euro:

Stay in the Euro; Lose the government

(or)

Keep the government; go back to the Drachma.

I have to believe the troika is perfectly prepared to just wait it out and see how it goes. Nothing to lose.

It's not over till its over.

iano

Probably a fudge of sorts will be agreed, but Troika hands are tied somewhat.

A. Troika twists and accepts Syriza demands for unilateral debt reduction (restructuring) and no further austerity, giving the green flag and momentum to the likes of Podemos, Livre and Five Star. Add Le Pen to the mix too.

B. Troika sticks and risks further Greek default mid-July, and the vast swathes of sovereign CDO / CDS (insurance on bad debt) payouts, and its knock-on effects. Remember this is the country that cooked the books using covert Goldman Sachs 'financial weapons of mass destruction' in applying to join the Eurozone in the first place. Brussels either gave it the Nelson or was blissfully unaware.

It's an almighty mess.

InVinoVeritas

I think there is no appetite for any more fudges and that has to be a good thing whatever your political persuasion.

The troïka will not want to deal anymore with Tsipras and Varoufakis, there is no more trust in these two individuals who have behaved with an unbelievable combination of flippancy and arrogance. I think you can expect the EU to drag its feet big time now. Firstly it will increase pressure on Greece and secondly it wil allow the markets to get used to the idea that this is not the end of the world or of the Euro. They can also use the time to design the new bailout package without appearing to have been strong-armed by a couple of Greek bullies.

So longer term I am more optimistic on getting (to my way of thinking) a good result but Greece is going to have to go through a period of severe social upheaval in the meantime.

Question for Red Eric - are you contributing to the crowd-funding?

Garbatellamike

I think the Troika have an appetite for Regime Change now and the gratuitous insulting and deliberate embarrassment of troika bigwigs might come back to haunt Syriza.

The Troika has already conspired with opposition parties to bring down Berlusconi when he threatened the stability of the Eurozone so they have form in this kind of skull duggery.

The protest score over the last 2 days was 13 000 in favour of Syriza and 20 000 in favour of remaining in the Euro, broadly in line with the polls suggesting Syriza will probably lose the referendum.

I also note some Syriza Politburo members are suggesting offering to cancel the referendum as a goodwill negotiating measure. Not sure where Tipsyrash can go from here other than to resign or eat some major humble pie and agree to more austerity in return for a bailout and some minor debt rescheduling.

Not a helpful solution anywhichway but merely 5 wasted months of posturing......

amideislas

Apparently, Tsipras has just conceded to the troika in a funny sort of way.

A letter this morning apparently said they will accept all conditions of the offer of a new bailout.

But the offer of 5-month extension to the existing bailout is already off the table, and a new bailout was never on the table...

And the saga continues...

Garbatellamike

Yes interesting and I was reading this as you posted!

amideislas

I sense regime change is indeed in the works. Greece may not leave the EZ tomorrow, but I suspect there will likely be a 'managed' exit over the next few years, conducted in cooperation with Eurogroup and a new Greek government.

BEVS

It is all a game of chess or call my bluff & who dares wins.

Greece wished for different terms than they had and may yet win their day in a way.

Garbatellamike

I think in this case it could actually be "who dares loses credibility" but it has definitely been a bluffing contest of epic proprtion.

bigglesworth

Personally IMO regime change was always the intention. I may think Tsipras and Varoufakis are as mad as a box of frogs but they WERE democratically elected. As was Papandreou.

amideislas

Tsipras is really in a corner now. All the troika need to do is say, "no, you made your bed. Let's wait till the night is over" - effectively forcing the referendum, which will likely destroy Tsipras.

Just a subnote - Podemos was licking their chops at the prospect of Syriza beating the troika at this game. I wonder how they are feeling now?

scrubbedexpat095

I rarely watch Spanish TV but I did catch a news broadcast yesterday which was filled with Podemos activistas trying really hard to tell everyone that they shouldn't equate Podemos with Tsipras and not really succeeding LOL

I think the elections here in Spain next November risk to be very interesting

amideislas

Whether Podemos is the same or a little different, they do share a lot of similarities. But Podemos' problem now is that initially, they were 100% in support of Syriza.


100,000 flock to Madrid for Podemos rally against austerity

Podemos Seeks to Restructure Public Sector Debt

But also eerily like Tsipras' own behaviour, Podemos' same arrogance is turning against their 'brothers' - "We aren't anything like Syriza - what would make you think that?".

Garbatellamike

Revenge is a dish best served cold - Merkel getting her own back for being called a Nazi???

Red Eric

No.


And although I have given you an honest answer (no doubt confirming your suspicions), it is of no relevance whatsoever to anything I have posted on this thread.


Besides, I suspect I have contributed more to the cost of bailouts than anyone else who has posted on this thread, having been on the receiving as well as on the foisting end.