British Expats - Exchange rate

British Expats (https://britishexpats.com/forum/)

- Canada (https://britishexpats.com/forum/canada-56/)

- - Exchange rate (https://britishexpats.com/forum/canada-56/exchange-rate-442788/)

Re: Exchange rate

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonfrank123 (Post 7132311)

Unfortunately, the "stuff" that Canada has to sell the world was massively overvalued eg Oil. The prices of these have collapsed, already many Alberta Oilsands projects have been put on hold. This was one of the key drivers of the Canadian economy which has now gone into freefall. Then consider the Automotive industry in Ontario, what will happen if the big 3 go bankrupt, it will be a disaster for that part of Canada. Look at the forestry and paper industry in Quebec, that's falling apart. This thing is bigger than Labour or the UK, to say that Canada is a better long term bet is pure speculation

To say that in the long term the global economy will recover is not really speculation, it will happen, eventually...when, who knows. When it does the demand for commodities will rise again. We have already gone past Peak Oil (partly the trigger for this crisis) and the price of Oil will start to head north of $100 again. Canada will then start to pull out of recession. The UK? We sell insurance.

In the short term your points are possibly correct, but the Loonie has not done well against the US dollar or Euro, so the global market is already factoring in it's vulnerability to global demand for commodities, it's just that the UK economy is so totally atrocious that it is doing well against the pound.

Re: Exchange rate

What happened at 3 pm today? The pound has starting rocketing (sort of :) ) up.

Re: Exchange rate

Quote:

Originally Posted by Posidrive (Post 7133607)

What happened at 3 pm today? The pound has starting rocketing (sort of :) ) up.

Almost $1.77 now. The scary thing is, that's starting to look like a good rate!

Re: Exchange rate

I check moneycorp's website everyday
http://www.moneycorp.com/currencies/...m?currency=CAD

Deduct between 0.03 and 0.06 and that's the rate you'll get from them, depending on how much you want changing.

Re: Exchange rate

Quote:

Originally Posted by SambaDeAmigo (Post 7133708)

Hmm, they were usually around 100 pips away from the current (not delayed) market rate when I traded with them - so that's quite a wide spread you got there. Either way - always ask them to do better - they will usually have some leeway if you are trading large amounts.

Re: Exchange rate

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan2005 (Post 7133917)

Thanks. Yeah, I always give them the "Are you sure that's the best rate you can get me?" line several times when I call them. I don't proceed if I'm not happy with their offer, I just call back later :)

Re: Exchange rate

IS IT TIME FOR THE STERLING BOUNCE?
The Pound stopped short of Â£1=â‚¬1, interrupted by the new year holiday. Base rates will be lower this week. The Loonie joined other commodity currencies in their rally.

Sterling suffered further erosion, falling from $1.7850 to $1.76. Seasonal illiquidity made for a relatively volatile and uncertain week. The Pound ranged between $1.75 and $1.80, changing direction seven times.

As the old year ended investors were taking a particular interest in the Pound against the Euro. Having spent the year on Sterling's case they found themselves within striking distance of their long term objective: Â£1=â‚¬1. At the same time another strategic - though less emotive - target was in their sights; Sterling/Yen's record low in 1995 just south of Ã‚Â¥130.

One way or another the holiday fortnight, and especially the New Year break, got in the way. Enough players were ready to lock in some end-of-year profits on their short Sterling positions to prevent the Pound hitting the magic number.

There were precious few UK economic data to affect the Pound one way or the other. Home buyers once again used spare cash to reduce their mortgages rather than leaving in the bank for a diminishing return. The implication was that spending money is not at the top of most families' to-do list, as evidenced by well known high street names going out of business and M&S issuing a profit warning. Mortgage approvals fell to a record (ten year) low in November and the Halifax announced a 16 per cent annual fall in house prices. The one positive note came with a rise in the manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers' Index. It was still at a lowly 34.9 but the improvement was unexpected.

With no data whatsoever from Ottawa the market was left to guess how the Canadian economy might be doing. Investors decided that the Loonie, like the other commodity currencies, was more attractive than the Yen (and the Pound). Things should be slightly more interesting this week with producer prices, the PMI, housing starts and the employment numbers. The Pound will be in the spotlight on Thursday when the Monetary Policy Committee lowers the Bank Rate again. The only debate is by how much. Analysts reckon on a 50 basis point cut to 1.50 per cent; the interest rate futures market sees 75 basis points and 1.25 per cent.

We start the new year as we ended the last: Buyers of the Canadian Dollar who need certainty should, reluctantly and perhaps expensively, cover their whole amount immaterial of the current exchange rate. Those with a greater risk appetite should look for a Sterling/Euro base - and a Sterling/Yen base - that will spark a turnaround in GBP/CAD. Place a stop order, in case it all goes wrong, but look for better levels in the next few weeks.

Re: Exchange rate

$1.78 now, yesterday it was $1.73!

Re: Exchange rate

This is an interesting graph showing the $CAD against $US and Â£GB long term history together with interest rates.

http://www.docstoc.com/docs/2194960/...endix-C-Charts

Looks like Â£GB has generally stayed above 2 $CAD since currency was allowed to float in 1970. At 1.70 it is getting pretty close to the all time lows in the 70s and 80s.

I hadn't realised how the $CAD had varied so much with the $US. Generally falling over 30 years or so to a low in 2002 then climbing up to parity in the last year then back down to 0.8

Re: Exchange rate

This is a temporary swell, get in quick it's going to fall again.

Re: Exchange rate

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bainesy36 (Post 7137025)

$1.80 ;)

It's funny how people are now happy with getting $1.80

Re: Exchange rate

Not getting it personally, just adding to the thread with regards to it's recent increase. I won't have any money to change until the beginning of May when who know's what it might be! :)

Re: Exchange rate

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimf (Post 7137391)

Interesting graph. In my earlier post (#1685 on page 13) I quoted figures I found using http://www.discount-currency-exchange.com. Checking that site again suggests that 1GBP was worth less than $1.70 for several months in 1984/5, reaching a low $1.46 in Dec 84. So I think you're right, it is currently at an historically very low level.

I also think that things can turn around very quickly. 6 months ago the BoE couldn't reduce interest rates because inflation had to be controlled. Now they're worried about deflation. Also, 6 months ago we were being told that Gordon Brown would be gone by Christmas.

So, how will things look 6 months from now? The only certainty is that no-one knows!

Re: Exchange rate

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bainesy36 (Post 7138142)

Not getting it personally, just adding to the thread with regards to it's recent increase. I won't have any money to change until the beginning of May when who know's what it might be! :)

We 'locked in" the rate we wanted before we came over here I think you can do it for three months before you make your exchange. It's a very nerve racking time though - constantly checking every hour or so to see when to do it. There is a charge but worth it if you come out on top!

Anyone have a crystal ball?:confused: