Re: Exchange rate
 

What really annoys me is the f'ing conservative party seriously talking down the UK economy at every opportunity, and making things worse.

$1.70'ish - £1, that's 15% lower than the norm..

... I am interested to know has it slid so low as to deter any/many forum members leaving the UK and settling in Canada ?

M.

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BTW - last time I looked, the £ has slipped 13% against the Russian Ruoble FFS !!!

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It's a tough one to call in the short / medium term. I think that the UK's trading partners will get increasingly frustrated with GB's unwillingness to control the slide of GBP and so a rally in the next few months is possible if he is forced into doing something. Long term tho - I suspect TheBear is right - Oil (or rather energy in general) is going to be a bigger deal.

I've also considered this - as the gains in GBP terms would be significant - then I realized that so would the potential losses. My feeling (admittedly based on nothing except intuition) is that sub $1.50 is possible.

I feel for people just about to emigrate - there is a triple whammy of

1 - UK housing is crashing hard
2 - If any equity is left, it buys 15% less CAD$ than 6 months ago and it may get worse
3 - Finding a job is tough (at least in Vancouver it is) as the Canadian economy also enters recession

On the plus side - house prices are crashing here in Canada (significantly here in Vancouver), so if it's house money you are transferring the depreciation is offset a little by that.

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The Bank of Canada has also cut interest rates so hopeflly this will help a little.

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Have you considered it may be a deliberate strategy? Perhaps their hope is that UK exports and labour rates will become incredibly cheap compared to other developed nations. Soon other countries will begin outsourcing their labour intensive operations to the UK and it will become the "sweatshop" of the developed world but with full employment ;)

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YES!!!! and we are gutted!

ARGH!!! $1.6989

we have no home to sell, but have lived in poverty to save enough sterling to make a decent sized deposit on a Vancouver home.

each day though, this lump sum gets ever smaller..... along with our hopes of finding employment etc etc....

Re: Exchange rate
 

The Bank of Canada's latest report (yesterday, I believe) was forecasting the recession here being brutal, but relatively swift. It seems there is some optimism Canada, as one of the better placed in the G8, will be among the first to recover. Admittedly I don't know anyone in the Auto or forestry industries here, but elsewhere the general mood doesn't appear particularly gloomy, more a case of 'push on through' and out the other side in 2010.

This is in contrast to the news coming out of the UK, which appears to be much more downbeat in it's longer term forecasts. A post above mentions US$ parity, I've seen that mentioned in a few financial stories recently - not particularly rosy for GBP-CAD rates.

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Canada is in denial. UK is in fear.

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Maybe, but so very of much of this is down to consumer confidence being in denial isn't necessarily a bad thing. Debt (personal, provincial, Governmental) is in a whole different ballpark across the pond.

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Sure - but it'll come home in the end. As the the old saw goes - a recession is when your neighbour loses his job, a depression is when you lose yours.

So far, the job losses haven't yet materialized here - but they will do soon enough.

However, I do think Canada is a better long term bet - which is why I'm here.

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in bangkok?

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Oops - best i correct that.

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The thing I cant get out my head regarding the Canadian and UK economies is that Canada is mineral rich, as the economy picks up, when ever that may be, at least CA can sell lots of oil/gas/lumber etc, what will the UK do ?

...we used to be a financial services hub, now that industry looks like it's going to be more strictly regulated around the globe where does that leave London & the city, and the UK economy - how will we make money ?

M.

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The UK still has a lot of manufacturing, apparently it's the worlds 6th largest manufacturer. The UK is big in pharma, aerospace, weapons (not proud of this one), and the software industry is still large. Note that outsourcing to China or India is great, but it has it's limits.

Also, people talk about the service economy being bad. However a lot of things that manufacturers used to do in house (and so used to be called manufacturing) are now outsourced (e.g. marketing etc) and are called the service sector.

For a sustainable economy you need to be as diverse as possible - can't rely on mineral wealth or manufacturing alone. No point in making stuff (or digging stuff out of the ground) if no-one wants to buy it.

Saying this, the value of energy independence over the next 10/20 years is going to be huge - and Canada has this :)

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i think the UK is pinning it hopes on becoming a logistical 'hub'.

tis why the heathrow expansion is so vital. despite this being the age of greener transportation etc, there is still a greater initiative towards expanding air space than any other logistical route like railways and roads.

however, the french have been busy upgrading their rail network, and to expand it so that a high speed network can criss cross the whole of europe, running on lovely 'clean' electricty, instead of lorry diesel or aviation fuel.

i guess the UK will be like Ireland once was... an off shore clearing house for EU's imports and exports, whilst the french maintain the bottle neck at the channel tunnel and pay for the upgrade of the dismal UK rail network....

in addition to that, the UK can become a hot bed of litigants and lawyers, who will sue anyone in the world for anyone in the world. we are the global capital of 'legal tourism'!

meanwhile, canada can sell a bit of its oil sands derived fuel (to the detriment of its landscape due to open pits and the massive creation of black water lakes) but it can also look at exporting the ever more valuable resource of nuclear fuels which industrial giants like russia and china will need to sustain their march / return to super powerdom... and of course to the french to power europe's trains!

there's diamonds and gold up in them thar hills too eh?