British Expats

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-   -   Exchange rate (https://britishexpats.com/forum/canada-56/exchange-rate-442788/)

TheBear Dec 19th 2008 3:05 am

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by Posidrive (Post 7082578)
Wouldn't bank on it this year. Over the last few years the dollar has peaked in value during the Winter months because of the higher demand for oil in the Western world to provide heat (at least in principle). Now that oil is worth naff all to the Canadian economy we're likely to see less of this effect.

Just my two pence worth.

For a couple of years anyway. Unless Oil drops further I suspect the pound will decline further. Brown and Darling are being rumbled by the international community

Alan2005 Dec 19th 2008 9:52 am

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by muddypuddle (Post 7081906)
Hi all - first post for me. I'd suggest that Moneycorp's daily / weekly update on the CAD exchange rate is well worth a read... their view is the same as many traders (who are taking large positions) on the pound recovering somewhat in January and again over the course of the next 6 months or so.
There is a definite lag in the Canadian economy compared to the UK one and the £ is still getting a media kicking. Having said that - we're all just guessing at the end of the day...

I use moneycorp to transfer my cash as their rates were ok. I tended to ignore the newsletter as it always said "hedge half" even when the rate was at around 2.04 - and the one time they didn't say that they got it wrong.

I'm with TheBear on this - all western economies are going to suffer badly - but I suspect the UK will suffer more than Canada and for longer. My very simple reasoning is that the boom in the UK was bigger, so the bust will be longer and deeper.

muddypuddle Dec 20th 2008 12:18 am

Re: Exchange rate
 
There's no doubt that it's getting grimmer and I also agree that the UK fall will be deeper than most...
We move out to vancouver for good in January and are trying to work out how much money we'll need and for how long, with the vaguest of ideas that we'll try and keep a pot back for when we're ready to buy a house in a couple of years... the alternative being should we just call it quits and move the rest of our (pitifully small and shrinking) pot of money over now.

I'm increasingly getting the feeling that whichever way we go it's just like pricking balloons with a cushion.

agr Dec 20th 2008 12:29 am

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by muddypuddle (Post 7085291)
There's no doubt that it's getting grimmer and I also agree that the UK fall will be deeper than most...
We move out to vancouver for good in January and are trying to work out how much money we'll need and for how long, with the vaguest of ideas that we'll try and keep a pot back for when we're ready to buy a house in a couple of years... the alternative being should we just call it quits and move the rest of our (pitifully small and shrinking) pot of money over now.

I'm increasingly getting the feeling that whichever way we go it's just like pricking balloons with a cushion.

We're moving in January also. All the money is coming with us. I'm not going to spend the next few years watching the exchange rate. We'll take out a forward contract shortly, not because the rate is good but because we will then stop worrying about the rate and start thinking about being in a dollar economy.

Certainty has a value all of its own.

geedee Dec 21st 2008 3:50 pm

Re: Exchange rate
 
1.81....

Aarrgh.... I think I'm going to have a heart attack....:ohmy:

TheBear Dec 21st 2008 8:58 pm

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by geedee (Post 7089982)
1.81....

Aarrgh.... I think I'm going to have a heart attack....:ohmy:

1.80. Just got a letter saying my canadian account is open...nightmare...lost about nearly 5% in less than 2 weeks. Reality is though, the international markets are just revaluing the pound, whether it's gone too far or not...hard to say, at least if I've got half of my saving in dollars I know where I stand. Just wish the markets could have waited another couple of weeks.

muddypuddle Dec 22nd 2008 12:22 am

Re: Exchange rate
 
:(

TheBear Dec 22nd 2008 12:28 am

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by muddypuddle (Post 7090867)
:(

I take it you're upset at the fact that it hit a year low of 1.775 today. It's so depressing, I have to wait for a cheque to clear before I can send the money over. Each day I am losing hundreds of pounds.

paolosmythe Dec 22nd 2008 12:56 am

Re: Exchange rate
 
i have become something of a neurotic from checking www.advfn.com too many time during the average day.

i feel buoyed by the ups and bothered by the downs..... but when ignoring the peaks and troughs and checking the £ to C$ 5 year trend, i am compelled to feel moving it all and moving it now is the way to go.

for sure it used to be >$2 but look at what it (and i) becomes! i just don't have the constitution to be a speculator i think (as if pouring all my dosh into iceland weren't proof enough already!)

and so to hell with the few dollars i might save; i want to get on with my life and confront the ups and downs as they arrive, instead of holding back in the hope of a future filled with unforeseeable maybes. (i think!?)

the best investment i can think of: hindsight blinkers!:D

agr Dec 22nd 2008 1:04 am

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by paolosmythe (Post 7090967)
i have become something of a neurotic from checking www.advfn.com too many time during the average day.

i feel buoyed by the ups and bothered by the downs..... but when ignoring the peaks and troughs and checking the £ to C$ 5 year trend, i am compelled to feel moving it all and moving it now is the way to go.

for sure it used to be >$2 but look at what it (and i) becomes! i just don't have the constitution to be a speculator i think (as if pouring all my dosh into iceland weren't proof enough already!)

and so to hell with the few dollars i might save; i want to get on with my life and confront the ups and downs as they arrive, instead of holding back in the hope of a future filled with unforeseeable maybes. (i think!?)

the best investment i can think of: hindsight blinkers!:D

My anti-neurosis measure is to plan the financial aspects of the move at a rate of $1.50. Anything above that is a bonus, that will kick-start our savings in Canada. When each lost cent on the rate is worth over $1000, you have to find a positive way of looking at these things!

paolosmythe Dec 22nd 2008 2:05 am

Re: Exchange rate
 
tis a good idea: low expectations leading to pleasant realisations....

trouble is, for the last 3 - 4 years i have been nurturing a nest egg at a presumed, 'double yer money' rate! :( gutted!

are there any currency analytical type sites people can recommend; or even money transfer systems?

i do know that HSBC will draw up a contract which stays good for 12 months and specifies a predetermined exchange rate for a set sum.....?

this sounds tempting, but i have no clue if it is a good gamble. i expect them to low ball me to the tune of agr's anti-neurosis rate!:curse:

muddypuddle Dec 22nd 2008 2:39 am

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by TheBear (Post 7090892)
I take it you're upset at the fact that it hit a year low of 1.775 today. It's so depressing, I have to wait for a cheque to clear before I can send the money over. Each day I am losing hundreds of pounds.

Yes - afraid so.

Similar to others on here, I am in danger of ruining my kids' Christmas as a result of currency induced temper tantrums.

All of our money is in an account and is tee'd up ready to go... I just haven't found the nuts to pull the trigger yet. Financially, for us the impact of the move away from $2:£1 towards 1.7:1 is profound.

My wife (the good woman that she is) keeps pointing out that for us the idea is to keep some money back for when we're ready to buy a house - so in reality the rapidly dropping house market in North Vancouver actually is kind of off-setting the currency drops.

It's now more a question of how quickly we can get a positive cash flow (i.e. get a job) so that we don't have to eat into our savings.

paolosmythe Dec 22nd 2008 2:58 am

Re: Exchange rate
 
^^^^ 'eating savings' - that is precisely my concern....

the money i had saved by living like a london pauper is, it seems, not likely to double in quantity when changed from £ to $

and so any drop in couver housing, is going to be less sweet as it works to merely off set losses during the exchange.

to compound the concern of these losses, is the apparent fact that getting work is next to impossible unless one is in the neighbourhood of prospective employ; to do which, requires the dwindling savings to be spent on rent instead of home making.

fate conspires against me again? i have brought my curse upon all of us!

muddypuddle Dec 22nd 2008 3:22 am

Re: Exchange rate
 
Chin up mate... Better to be skint in Canada than a with a few quid in Blighty... at least in my opinion.

paolosmythe Dec 22nd 2008 3:46 am

Re: Exchange rate
 
very true - and even more relevent when considering that nobody is getting any richer over here!


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