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-   -   Exchange rate (https://britishexpats.com/forum/canada-56/exchange-rate-442788/)

nooka Nov 21st 2008 8:12 am

Re: Exchange rate
 
What are people's views on the US CDN dollar exchange rate? Was the 1 : 1 the exception and so the rates are returning to normal, or will they fall again do you think? My assets are in US dollars, and the exchange rate is going in the right direction for me right now, but I wonder about the best time to move them.

scottymallo Nov 21st 2008 10:51 am

Re: Exchange rate
 
Nobody knows for sure but i cannot see the US $ getting much more stronger than it is against the CD! you ve got to take what your happy with and depends on other factors such as how quickly you need to transfer across ect!

Aviator Nov 21st 2008 11:05 am

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by scottymallo (Post 6997754)
Nobody knows for sure but i cannot see the US $ getting much more stronger than it is against the CD! you ve got to take what your happy with and depends on other factors such as how quickly you need to transfer across ect!

Wasn't that many years ago it was down to 60c

cneldred Nov 21st 2008 11:45 am

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by andrewrb143 (Post 6997215)
One way to keep the prices down would be to disband OPEC, only then will we see the real prices of oil based on simple supply and demand.

Only way to disband OPEC is for OPEC to disband themselves, ain't gonna happen. They love the group power they have.

Alan2005 Nov 21st 2008 12:22 pm

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by screene (Post 6994552)
I bought CAD at end October and got 2.0112. The bank rate on the HiFX website was 2.03 (can't remember whether that was bid or ask). At the time I asked about buying ahead for 1 March 09 and was offered 1.9980, and 1.9879 for 1 June 09. There were no other charges for these transactions, you just get the slightly lower rate. I don't know what the penalty is if you subsequently back out. I didn't buy at the time because I wanted to get better than the $2 on which I based my calculations... hindsight eh?

Hope that helps.

If you KNOW when you are going to get the money then you can do a forward trade (these aren't options and so are legally binding). What they will do for you is lock in the current SPOT rate + an interest rate differential.

Canadian interest rates were lower than UK ones you get a lower rate in the future (i.e. you get a better return having GBP rather than CAD in the bank).

As UK interest rates are now lower than Canadian ones - a forward rate should actually be higher than the current SPOT rate. This is true right now on my terminal anyway (GBPCAD1M/2M/3M points are all just about positive - tho the spreads are large)

Alan

geedee Nov 21st 2008 6:02 pm

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by cneldred (Post 6997883)
Only way to disband OPEC is for OPEC to disband themselves, ain't gonna happen. They love the group power they have.

Weird, innit? Cartels are banned in Europe... you often see industries fined for "price fixing". Which is exactly what OPEC do and nobody bats an eyelid!

There's rules for them, and rules for us.....

nooka Nov 21st 2008 6:07 pm

Re: Exchange rate
 
As OPEC is international who would do the banning?

Aviator Nov 22nd 2008 7:38 am

Re: Exchange rate
 
Twiddling my thumbs again in a hotel, looked a bit into the history of the GBP/CAD pair. In 1976 it dipped to 1.61 and by 1980 it hit 2.90. It has gone up an down like a yo yo this past 30 years, so for those holding GBP there is hope yet if you're not in a rush. Trouble is it is a crap shoot for those willing to take the risk.

Some people take more of a risk than others.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/soros.asp

MarkG Nov 22nd 2008 7:43 am

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by nooka (Post 6997415)
What are people's views on the US CDN dollar exchange rate? Was the 1 : 1 the exception and so the rates are returning to normal, or will they fall again do you think?

If commodities start booming again then the exchange rate is likely to head back towards 1:1; that's what pushed it up there before. Or if people figure out that the US government can't afford all its bailouts then the US dollar might start to fall.

scousemartin Nov 24th 2008 3:29 am

Re: Exchange rate
 
The £ has just fallen off the perch!

1.90 to 1.855 in about 45 mins!

Was it the chancellors speech?

TheBear Nov 24th 2008 3:59 am

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by scousemartin (Post 7004507)
The £ has just fallen off the perch!

1.90 to 1.855 in about 45 mins!

Was it the chancellors speech?

Probably more to do with Oil jumping $2 a barrel...everything in the speech was well flagged.

andrewrb143 Nov 24th 2008 4:20 am

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by nooka (Post 6998322)
As OPEC is international who would do the banning?

The countries in which the members are based. It is all irrelevant though, the tax revenues from oil means no government is ever going to intervene. They are simply too powerful and influential.

cneldred Nov 24th 2008 7:49 pm

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by scousemartin (Post 7004507)
The £ has just fallen off the perch!

1.90 to 1.855 in about 45 mins!

Was it the chancellors speech?

Yes, Labour just flooded the market with new debt....also everyone now saying that Bank of England have to cut another 100bp (1%) very soon. All makes UK a less desirable place to invest.

scottymallo Nov 25th 2008 5:18 am

Re: Exchange rate
 
The £ is getting stronger just about to break $1.90 again!!!

Aviator Nov 27th 2008 6:37 am

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by scottymallo (Post 7008672)
The £ is getting stronger just about to break $1.90 again!!!

1.8677 today


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