|
Re: Exchange rate
Hi everyone,
Thanks for your input, think we will get the account set up with somebody and perhaps put a $1.90 hit on the landing amount, see what happens, hopefully it will go back up a bit after xmas:blink: |
Re: Exchange rate
Originally Posted by johnh009
(Post 7093270)
Look at this, according to the IMF, for 2008, Canada ranks 171 out of 181 countries for GDP growth, way below the UK:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/7195...-of-181-by-imf Latest forecasts: ----2008----2009 UK -0.7% -2.4% Canada 0.7% -0.6% Canada's third quarter showed modest growth, whereas Britain stopped growing Q2, shrank in Q3 and will officially be in recession if the fourth quarter produces negative growth as expected. That said, the current plight of sterling has more to do with record levels of government borrowing (both in nominal and real terms) than relative economic growth. It will be interesting to see what happens when the Canadian Parliament returns to hear the budget next month, as that could have implications for exchange rates - on the upside or downside. |
Re: Exchange rate
Originally Posted by montpro
(Post 7093430)
It was $1.90 just 10 days ago and will get there again soon. Once the mad panic of Christmas is out the way you will see it rise. Im holding out for $2.05
|
Re: Exchange rate
I am going to put the minimum landing funds in my new HSBC Canada account next week. That way I will stop worrying about the rate changing further against me, if the pound goes up (which I suspect it will the day after I transfer the money) I still have UK money, and I'm earning UK pounds still, so it's no big deal losing a bit here and there if I gain peace of mind.
I'm wondering if the Oil pice falls not making a difference are to do with the fact that the price has gone below a threshold for Canada being able to export their Oil. I heard it needs to be above $50 a barrel for it to be profitable. Who knows. This is the only time in my life I'm glad I don't have huge wads of cash in the bank...I'd be panicking every day! |
Re: Exchange rate
POUND'S STILL FALLIN', ALL AROUND ME...
Traders sellin', having fun: What's the reason? Is this Brown's soft landing? Merry Christmas anyone? (With apologies to Shakin' Stevens and others) A sharpish four cent rally to $1.90 on Monday quickly turned a three day slump and Sterling found itself down at $1.7850 on Thursday afternoon. It bounced above $1.86 and fell back just as quickly on Friday. By the time London opened this morning it was trading at $1.80. The week got off to an inauspicious start for Sterling when two UK government leaders acknowledged the seriousness of Britain's economic slowdown. Chancellor Alistair Darling told parliament that Britain would be harder hit than any other country by the disappearance of financial sector profitability. Olympics minister Tessa Jowell said on TV that the country faced "a recession deeper than any that we have known." No false festive cheer there then. For various reasons the major focus for Sterling was interest rates. First up was the CPI inflation number on Tuesday and, with it, the Bank of England governor's three-monthly letter to Mr Darling explaining why inflation is outside its 1-3 per cent target range. At 4.1 per cent the CPI figure was fair enough but the governor said in his letter that it was "quite possible" that UK inflation could fall below 1 per cent next year. Assuming the flagging economy needs interest rates to be lower than the rate of inflation, the implication is that base rates will need to be (well) below 1 per cent by then. A Zero Interest Rate Policy for Britain is a real possibility. And then what? And then they start printing money. Not literally of course, that's so very 19th century. But a central bank is in a unique position to create money. All it has to do is change the numbers on its balance sheet. With that done, the Bank can use its newly invented cash to buy gilts or distressed mortgages. In theory that makes money more easily available throughout the economy. As long as the commercial banks are prepared to dish it out! That's what they talked about at the Bank's December policy meeting and that's also what they are doing in the United States and Japan, where rates went down last week to as close to zero as makes no difference. Canada offered little to distract investors' attention from rate cuts in Japan and the States and economic gloom in Britain. A near one per cent fall in Canadian retail sales was disappointing but no more so than equivalent figures elsewhere. Also in common with the rest of the world was a fall in consumer prices between October and November that allowed year-on-year inflation to fall from 2.6 to 2.0 per cent. Core inflation was up, perhaps acting as a brake on any further rapid relaxation by the Bank of Canada, but in Canada as elsewhere the pressure on inflation is downward. The two week period surrounding Christmas and the new year is traditionally a nervous one for the FX market because liquidity is in short supply. Half the market is on holiday and the other half wishes it were. The banks that were reluctant to trade a month ago are doubly so when a missed payment on Wednesday means five days of overdraft interest (and that is not cheap, wherever the official rate may sit). There are two ways this bunker mentality can affect exchange rates. The better outcome is when everyone keeps a low profile and does as little as possible; volumes are low and prices are steady. The alternative is when almost everyone keeps a low profile but some nutter decides to stir things up. There does not even need to be malicious intent; in a thin market a clumsy order can create an awful lot of mischief. Beware. We repeat last week's tentative advice: Buyers of the Canadian Dollar who need certainty should, as ever, cover their whole amount immaterial of the current exchange rate. Those with a greater risk appetite should look for a Sterling/Euro and Sterling/Yen base that will spark a turnaround, leading to a rally in GBP/CAD. Place a stop order, in case it all goes haywire, but look for better levels early in the new year. |
Re: Exchange rate
1.80
Oh dear, I appear to be suffering a cardiac arrest..... |
Re: Exchange rate
Originally Posted by TheBear
(Post 7095472)
I'm wondering if the Oil pice falls not making a difference are to do with the fact that the price has gone below a threshold for Canada being able to export their Oil. I heard it needs to be above $50 a barrel for it to be profitable. Who knows.
In fact, the Canadian dollar has been falling against a basket of world currencies. The C$ has dropped about 20% against the US$ (which is helping to keep Canadian oil exports to the US profitable). The sterling exchange rate is down because the £ is even weaker than that, having fallen 18%:eek: against the C$ since we changed most of our savings over for $2.04 in July. We still have our legacy (defined benefit) pensions in sterling, so we are hoping for a better exchange rate some time between now and our retirement in about 2045!:unsure: |
Re: Exchange rate
Today's FT contains some extracts from Deutsche Bank's 2009 outlook:
So if 2009 goes horribly wrong it’s probably because there’s a run on a major currency or a Government bond market than because of wide scale corporate defaults. At the moment the UK remains the lowest hanging developed market fruit. For those of us living in the UK it remains scary how exposed we are to the full force of this credit crisis. Full article here: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008...go-wrong-next/ |
Re: Exchange rate
Originally Posted by geedee
(Post 7096202)
1.80
Oh dear, I appear to be suffering a cardiac arrest..... |
Re: Exchange rate
Originally Posted by johnh009
(Post 7098162)
There are too many coincidences here. Suddenly, the pound moves onto a par (more or less) with the Euro, and now, Brown has signed the Lisbon Treaty without consulting the British public. I'll bet the next move is to take Britain into the Euro, again without consulting the public. Remember, Brown and Blair are big fans of the Euro.
|
Re: Exchange rate
Originally Posted by geedee
(Post 7099255)
So much for "democracy" eh?
|
Re: Exchange rate
Calling Cneldred.... or anyone else with a more informed opinion!!!
It's looking dire.... the savings I do have are earning less and less interest, nulabia seem hell bent on getting us into the Euro, and now there's rumours of an Amero. In a bad scenario (I dare not say 'worst' case these days!!) we could end up with one Amero to one Euro.... reducing my "Candian" fund by at least half! Would people in my situation (ie living and hoping to stay in Canada) be better off biting the bullet and changing now, before it gets worse? I had hoped that the Pound was being picked on and would recover; now I'm not so sure. Help!!:blink: |
Re: Exchange rate
You can't seriously believe that the Amero is a possibility? The US would never give up their dollar, more likely is that Canada and Mexico would just start using it (still highly unlikely)....
The UK joining the Euro is possible though, and probably what Bliar had in mind all along - the current economic situation has just made the justification easier.... Nulabia made me laugh though - classic! :rofl: |
Re: Exchange rate
Originally Posted by G77
(Post 7109510)
You can't seriously believe that the Amero is a possibility? The US would never give up their dollar, more likely is that Canada and Mexico would just start using it (still highly unlikely)....
The UK joining the Euro is possible though, and probably what Bliar had in mind all along - the current economic situation has just made the justification easier.... Nulabia made me laugh though - classic! :rofl: |
Re: Exchange rate
The US dollar is so ingrained in the psyche of the American public, so much more so than any of the countries that gave up their national currencies for the Euro, that it would be almost impossible to even contemplate it, unless, as I said, it was still called a dollar.... and it still looked the same.... i.e. $1 bills still and not coins like here.
|
| All times are GMT -12. The time now is 5:47 pm. |
Powered by vBulletin: ©2000 - 2026, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2026 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.