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Steerpike Nov 5th 2020 5:42 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by kimilseung (Post 12931246)
FOX called Arizona ages ago, and they were talking about maybe that was a little too early, and they may have to reconsider it, so I think they will be reluctant to call Nevada early at all

Yeah, I was watching when that came down. LOTS of pressure and anger from their own people, as well as the president. The head of the team that 'calls' the states for Fox is a registered democrat, believe it or not and I'm sure that will be used against him :)

Steerpike Nov 5th 2020 6:24 am

Re: 2020 Election
 
Looks like the polling accuracy for 2020 was no better than for 2016, or not much better. I know there's a ton of apologists for how the 2016 guys didn't really get it wrong, so what's the excuse going to be this time around? I've been following "The Economist" for better or for worse, and this is how they had it right before the election:

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9e66f91afd.png
NC +2 Dem; FL +3 Dem. Both going Rep. Georgia MAY prove more accurate, as may AZ. Nevada +7 Dem - looks like it's barely going to be +1, if that. WI +8 Dem; reality looks more like Dem +1 if we are lucky. MI +8, looking more like +2. MN, at +9 is perhaps closer to reality which is looking like about +7.

So have we really fixed our messed up polling? The 'shy Trump' voter seems to be alive and kicking.

Edit To Add: SC was counted as 'too close to call'; looks like Trump +12! Ohio, too close to call; looks like Trump +8.

scrubbedexpat096 Nov 5th 2020 7:05 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Steerpike (Post 12931262)
Looks like the polling accuracy for 2020 was no better than for 2016, or not much better. I know there's a ton of apologists for how the 2016 guys didn't really get it wrong, so what's the excuse going to be this time around? I've been following "The Economist" for better or for worse, and this is how they had it right before the election:

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9e66f91afd.png
NC +2 Dem; FL +3 Dem. Both going Rep. Georgia MAY prove more accurate, as may AZ. Nevada +7 Dem - looks like it's barely going to be +1, if that. WI +8 Dem; reality looks more like Dem +1 if we are lucky. MI +8, looking more like +2. MN, at +9 is perhaps closer to reality which is looking like about +7.

So have we really fixed our messed up polling? The 'shy Trump' voter seems to be alive and kicking.


Fake republican ballots? They voted twice and for dead relative's? Then mailed in also, I read it on twitter (to be fair I posted it too) so it must be true.
:sarcasm:


Plenty of people out there who are republican but not Trump, could this make enough of a difference depending on the question?

​​​​​​

Lion in Winter Nov 5th 2020 7:34 am

Re: 2020 Election
 
Apparently a lot of people are too embarrassed to admit that they will vote for Trump.

Shouldn't that set off an alarm bell in your own head, if you can't admit to your voting choice?

civilservant Nov 5th 2020 7:42 am

Re: 2020 Election
 
My Republican friends are losing their minds now that Biden looks to be on a glidepath to winning. According to one:

- He's going to make the COVID vaccine mandatory, if you don't take it you're going to jail.
- Gas will be minimum of $4 a gallon,
- He's in favor of abortion up to the minute of birth
- He's coming to take every single gun in America
- He's going to defund the police
- He's going to do away with bonding companies.

I must have missed those policy platforms.

I would fight it with the truth, but what's the point? People that far in the Trump bubble aren't going to hear it anyway.

Steerpike Nov 5th 2020 7:43 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter (Post 12931289)
Apparently a lot of people are too embarrassed to admit that they will vote for Trump.

Shouldn't that set off an alarm bell in your own head, if you can't admit to your voting choice?

Well, yes and no. I thought about a) bumper stickers and b) yard signs for Biden in my deeply red neighborhood in AZ, and declined due to fear of car damage / bricks through windows. Probably not something that would have happened, but I erred on the side of caution. I was very vocal on the neighborhood site, but did hold back since they publish your name and address.

Lion in Winter Nov 5th 2020 7:44 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by civilservant (Post 12931292)
My Republican friends are losing their minds now that Biden looks to be on a glidepath to winning. According to one:

- He's going to make the COVID vaccine mandatory, if you don't take it you're going to jail.
- Gas will be minimum of $4 a gallon,
- He's in favor of abortion up to the minute of birth
- He's coming to take every single gun in America
- He's going to defund the police
- He's going to do away with bonding companies.

I must have missed those policy platforms.

I would fight it with the truth, but what's the point? People that far in the Trump bubble aren't going to hear it anyway.


How did the bonding company thing sneak in there? Oddly specific.

Steerpike Nov 5th 2020 7:44 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by civilservant (Post 12931292)
My Republican friends are losing their minds now that Biden looks to be on a glidepath to winning. According to one:

- He's going to make the COVID vaccine mandatory, if you don't take it you're going to jail.
- Gas will be minimum of $4 a gallon,
- He's in favor of abortion up to the minute of birth
- He's coming to take every single gun in America
- He's going to defund the police
- He's going to do away with bonding companies.

I must have missed those policy platforms.

I would fight it with the truth, but what's the point? People that far in the Trump bubble aren't going to hear it anyway.

Bonding companies? Bail bonding?

Lion in Winter Nov 5th 2020 7:45 am

Re: 2020 Election
 
This is an interesting column on what the Dems should have done and should do now. ie find some, er, gonads. Trump should have been beaten in a landslide in any sane world - this column speaks to that.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...box=1604604037

civilservant Nov 5th 2020 7:45 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter (Post 12931294)
How did the bonding company thing sneak in there? Oddly specific.

Yeah I'm not sure either. It's not like she is, or associated with, criminals.

Weird.


Bonding companies? Bail bonding?
Right

Lion in Winter Nov 5th 2020 7:46 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by civilservant (Post 12931297)
Yeah I'm not sure either. It's not like she is, or associated with, criminals.

Weird.


Does Bill Gates own the companies maybe?

civilservant Nov 5th 2020 7:47 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter (Post 12931298)
Does Bill Gates own the companies maybe?

Possibly! And this is an otherwise intelligent women, a bachelors holder. I don't understand.

Oh and people are agreeing with her left and right. It's like they've never even heard of separation of powers, or that it will still be a Republican Senate.

Jerseygirl Nov 5th 2020 7:52 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Steerpike (Post 12931293)
Well, yes and no. I thought about a) bumper stickers and b) yard signs for Biden in my deeply red neighborhood in AZ, and declined due to fear of car damage / bricks through windows. Probably not something that would have happened, but I erred on the side of caution. I was very vocal on the neighborhood site, but did hold back since they publish your name and address.

I can’t understand why people make themselves stand out, and so perhaps becoming a victim. Whether it be yard signs, bumper stickers, license plates etc. Ramming your beliefs/ethnicity etc down the throats of others really gets my goat. No signage, celebrity endorsement etc etc etc will change my opinion.

Nutek Nov 5th 2020 7:57 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by civilservant (Post 12931292)
My Republican friends are losing their minds now that Biden looks to be on a glidepath to winning. According to one:

- He's going to make the COVID vaccine mandatory, if you don't take it you're going to jail.

- He's in favor of abortion up to the minute of birth
- He's coming to take every single gun in America
- He's going to defund the police

I would vote for that. Well, I would in a country where my vote actually counted.

Lion in Winter Nov 5th 2020 7:57 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by civilservant (Post 12931301)
Possibly! And this is an otherwise intelligent women, a bachelors holder. I don't understand.

Oh and people are agreeing with her left and right. It's like they've never even heard of separation of powers, or that it will still be a Republican Senate.


I listened to a "woman on the street" interview on Tuesday where she simply kept stating that Biden was a socialist. She couldn't provide the interviewer with a single example of this, nor could she explain what she meant by "socialist" other than he was going to take all the guns :confused:

It seems to be an episode of mass hysteria.


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