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Giantaxe Feb 20th 2020 6:19 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Steerpike (Post 12809331)
Looking forward to hearing some analysis of last night's debate from some of our more thoughtful regulars. I only caught the excerpts, and it looked like a horrible mud-slinging hate-fest. The candidates behaved terribly. I hate to say it, but Sanders looked normal among them. Fussing over tax returns and NDAs ... just what the party needs when we really should be focusing on Trump! Really, do we give a shit about Bloomberg's tax returns? He's rich and his tax returns will be eye-popping; he said they'll be released soon, so why focus on it now? Biden looked awful. Warren did get a lot of brownie points from me for supporting Klobuchar on the 'Mexican President' topic. But overall - what a horrible performance by the party, collectively.

A mixed bag, imo. Some stupid attacks - Warren's on Buttigieg and Klobuchar with the mocking of their post it note health plans. Buttigieg making way too big a deal about Klobuchar's not recalling the name of hte Mexican president. Please. But it was good to have Bloomberg up there defending his record and seeing what s terrible job he did of it. I mean, if that is the best he can do he is toast. Way too much baggage to get through the primary. Given he knew the "stop and frisk" attacks were coming, you would have thought he could have put up a better defence. Additionally, his presence helped others. Sanders, as front runner, played it safe and wasn't the brunt of attacks with Bloomberg there. Biden had his best debate as well. I wouldn't count him out yet. Apart from her silly attack, Warren was strong too. She changed her style from the "I have a plan..." formulaic responses from past debate. Buttigieg I was disappointed with, especially the attack I've already mentioned. And Klobuchar let Buttigieg get under her skin and it wasn't a good look.

So I am not sure it will change any minds. Sanders seems to have cemented front runner status, but it also seems pretty clear that we may come into the convention with no candidate having a majority of delegates. This could well be a mess.

scrubbedexpat099 Feb 20th 2020 6:28 am

Re: 2020 Election
 
Interesting that assuming it comes to a convention Sanders is the only one who is prepared to accept the popular vate.

Giantaxe Feb 20th 2020 6:43 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Boiler (Post 12809354)
Interesting that assuming it comes to a convention Sanders is the only one who is prepared to accept the popular vate.

Which, like the presidential election itself and pretty much every primary, isn't the way it works.

scrubbedexpat099 Feb 20th 2020 6:45 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Giantaxe (Post 12809362)
Which, like the presidential election itself and pretty much every primary, isn't the way it works.

I realise that, I was thinking more in the context of the campaign for that is the way it should work.

Giantaxe Feb 20th 2020 6:51 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Boiler (Post 12809363)
I realise that, I was thinking more in the context of the campaign for that is the way it should work.

If it worked that way, the largest states would assume even more importance. That's arguably not a good thing.

scrubbedexpat099 Feb 20th 2020 7:00 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Giantaxe (Post 12809366)
If it worked that way, the largest states would assume even more importance. That's arguably not a good thing.

I agree, a Republic, but I had assumed the Dem view was otherwise.

Giantaxe Feb 20th 2020 7:11 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Boiler (Post 12809370)
I agree, a Republic, but I had assumed the Dem view was otherwise.

Sanders view, it seems.

scrubbedexpat099 Feb 20th 2020 7:15 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Giantaxe (Post 12809379)
Sanders view, it seems.

What about the proposal in Virginia, seems a lot of support for the popular vote.

Giantaxe Feb 20th 2020 7:24 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Boiler (Post 12809382)
What about the proposal in Virginia, seems a lot of support for the popular vote.

For the presidential election or the primaries?

scrubbedexpat099 Feb 20th 2020 7:39 am

Re: 2020 Election
 
Both

Giantaxe Feb 20th 2020 7:42 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Boiler (Post 12809392)
Both

Huge change then for primaries as you'd likely have to have a single day for primaries, which would meet huge resistance from some states.

If you're going to have a popular vote in primaries, I'd prefer to go with a ranked choice voting system.

Anyway, it's all moot for 2020 as the rules have already been decided.

scrubbedexpat099 Feb 20th 2020 8:30 am

Re: 2020 Election
 
The situation that seems likely at the moment is that Bernie picks up 30% or so all the way and is comfortably leading when we get to the Convention, is there is another fix, see 2016, will be interesting to see how the Bernie Bros respond.

Giantaxe Feb 20th 2020 5:47 pm

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Boiler (Post 12809414)
The situation that seems likely at the moment is that Bernie picks up 30% or so all the way and is comfortably leading when we get to the Convention, is there is another fix, see 2016, will be interesting to see how the Bernie Bros respond.

In the 2016, Clinton won 54% of the pledged delegates - won based on primary results - and 55.2% of the popular vote. So, it's interesting that Sanders now believes that the popular vote should carry weight in 2020 given his complaints back then.

I think it's a given that the "Bernie Bros" will react badly if Sanders is not the nominee, however that comes about.


carcajou Feb 21st 2020 12:01 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Giantaxe (Post 12809555)
In the 2016, Clinton won 54% of the pledged delegates - won based on primary results - and 55.2% of the popular vote. So, it's interesting that Sanders now believes that the popular vote should carry weight in 2020 given his complaints back then.

I think it's a given that the "Bernie Bros" will react badly if Sanders is not the nominee, however that comes about.

Of course he now believes the popular vote should carry weight, when he didn't think that way before. Now it benefits him and then it didn't.

I have said before and will say again, Sanders and the "Bernie Bros" will not play nice with whoever the nominee is, and will work to undermine the ticket.

What happens if Sanders wins the nomination, and Bloomberg decides to run as an independent, a la Joe Lieberman circa 2006? If there was ever a year for a third candidate it's this one.

If it's a brokered convention and Bernie has the popular vote lead but is more than just a few delegates short, and his sweeping popular vote mandate is still at an amazing-astounding-look-he's-FDR-all-over-again 29%, the Bernie Bros will go ballistic but I don't think anyone else will be shedding tears over it.

carcajou Feb 21st 2020 12:14 am

Re: 2020 Election
 
Further to that - I wonder what all those California tech bro millionaires backing Bernie will think, when he wins the nomination, they high-five over Medicare For All etc and then it sinks in that his promises aren't free, cost real money and that he and his team are going to pay for it with, for instance, a 70% income tax on those over $250,000 a year. Similar to all those Scandinavian countries we ought to be emulating. I predict we will suddenly get a ton of "Shy Trump" voters in unexpected places. Bernie on the bumper sticker and Trump in the ballot box.


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