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Ingles Feb 21st 2020 12:38 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Anian (Post 12809275)
If Bloomberg gets the nomination, we end up with a funny situation.
A Democrat who used to be a Republican, self-made billionaire, New Yorker,
running against
a Republican who used to be a Democrat, self-pretend billionaire, New Yorker.

Will be very interesting , Bloomberg has loads of money to run.
Will Trump be able to match him ?

Giantaxe Feb 21st 2020 4:44 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Giantaxe (Post 12809395)
If you're going to have a popular vote in primaries, I'd prefer to go with a ranked choice voting system.

Following up on my own post, here's a simulation from The Economist - money quote is "Under ranked-choice voting, left-wing purism would aid Joe Biden".

RCV would avoid having a contested convention and add legitimacy to the winner:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...-aid-joe-biden

I also didn't realize six states are using a limited form of RCV this time. I guess they are including the two caucuses which could be considered as such.

scrubbedexpat099 Feb 21st 2020 5:28 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Ingles (Post 12809642)
Will be very interesting , Bloomberg has loads of money to run.
Will Trump be able to match him ?

Hillary had significantly more than Trump. So I am sure it helps but will be interesting to see if you can really buy the nomination, seems his plan is to get it through the Super Delegates at a brokered convention.

carcajou Feb 21st 2020 11:44 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Giantaxe (Post 12809749)
Following up on my own post, here's a simulation from The Economist - money quote is "Under ranked-choice voting, left-wing purism would aid Joe Biden".

RCV would avoid having a contested convention and add legitimacy to the winner:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...-aid-joe-biden

I also didn't realize six states are using a limited form of RCV this time. I guess they are including the two caucuses which could be considered as such.

Talk of a brokered convention is premature.

However, this is the weakest Democratic field of my lifetime. No other candidate field ever needed a brokered convention since the full primary system was instituted, which was actually not that long ago. From memory Jimmy Carter actually didn't have enough delegates in 1980 before the convention, after the Kennedy insurgency, but he only needed to round up a very tiny number of delegates and it wasn't considered a brokered convention.

Before the mid-70s, primaries and caucuses were novelties and far from universal. All of the conventions were brokered. If it happens it won't be some unique milestone in political history.

If this primary goes to a brokered convention it will be because the field is generationally weak, not because of some flaw in the rules.

Bernie Sanders has struggled to expand his support base because he is an extreme candidate who holds extreme views, not because of some global capitalist conspiracy regarding the rules.

If you want a replay of what just happened in the UK, right down to all the intra-party in-fighting - vote for Sanders.



Steerpike Feb 21st 2020 4:13 pm

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Giantaxe (Post 12809351)
A mixed bag, imo. Some stupid attacks - Warren's on Buttigieg and Klobuchar with the mocking of their post it note health plans. Buttigieg making way too big a deal about Klobuchar's not recalling the name of hte Mexican president. Please. But it was good to have Bloomberg up there defending his record and seeing what s terrible job he did of it. I mean, if that is the best he can do he is toast. Way too much baggage to get through the primary. Given he knew the "stop and frisk" attacks were coming, you would have thought he could have put up a better defence. Additionally, his presence helped others. Sanders, as front runner, played it safe and wasn't the brunt of attacks with Bloomberg there. Biden had his best debate as well. I wouldn't count him out yet. Apart from her silly attack, Warren was strong too. She changed her style from the "I have a plan..." formulaic responses from past debate. Buttigieg I was disappointed with, especially the attack I've already mentioned. And Klobuchar let Buttigieg get under her skin and it wasn't a good look.

So I am not sure it will change any minds. Sanders seems to have cemented front runner status, but it also seems pretty clear that we may come into the convention with no candidate having a majority of delegates. This could well be a mess.

I just saw a news item that said the last democratic debate was the most watched ever! That blows my mind, as it was so monumentally bad. My lasting memory was of a bunch of adults waving their arms like schoolchildren trying to get teacher's attention. I just can't imagine how this is all going to end ...

scrubbedexpat099 Feb 21st 2020 4:23 pm

Re: 2020 Election
 
Still not many, but the build up was this time rewarded and with more to come.

Giantaxe Feb 21st 2020 4:25 pm

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Steerpike (Post 12809975)
I just saw a news item that said the last democratic debate was the most watched ever! That blows my mind, as it was so monumentally bad. My lasting memory was of a bunch of adults waving their arms like schoolchildren trying to get teacher's attention. I just can't imagine how this is all going to end ...

I watched most of the Republican debates in '16 and, with Trump there, they were as bad if not worse than this election's Democratic debates.

robin1234 Feb 21st 2020 6:29 pm

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Giantaxe (Post 12809978)
I watched most of the Republican debates in '16 and, with Trump there, they were as bad if not worse than this election's Democratic debates.

And, if a week is a long time in politics, eight months is aeons. By Election Day, primary debates are not even in the rear view mirror.

carcajou Feb 21st 2020 7:33 pm

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Giantaxe (Post 12809978)
I watched most of the Republican debates in '16 and, with Trump there, they were as bad if not worse than this election's Democratic debates.

Trump was the most moderate of that field.

Steerpike Feb 22nd 2020 9:02 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Giantaxe (Post 12809978)
I watched most of the Republican debates in '16 and, with Trump there, they were as bad if not worse than this election's Democratic debates.

Oh, I agree! Since I'm a committed Democrat, I found the Republican debates to be a reassuring shambles. I remember watching with incredulity at just how bad the likes of Ben Carson, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, etc performed. But when I see my 'own' party performing so badly, it's no longer amusing ... :)

scrubbedexpat099 Feb 22nd 2020 11:44 am

Re: 2020 Election
 
Comfortable winds for the Bernie Bros, looks like the Buttigieg Boys will be 3rd and if I understand it correctly less than 15% gets you nothing so Biden gets some and the rest nothing.

dc koop Feb 22nd 2020 4:56 pm

Re: 2020 Election
 
Bernie is racking up the votes amongst the Latinos. They think he's Santa Claus

dc koop Feb 22nd 2020 5:02 pm

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by Ingles (Post 12809642)
Will be very interesting , Bloomberg has loads of money to run.
Will Trump be able to match him ?


Nobody buys the Presidency with big dollahs.! That's a myth currently being perpetuated by raving uncle Bernie. Tom Steyer has spent around sixty million of his own money (at the very least) and gotten nowhere

Lion in Winter Feb 23rd 2020 12:45 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by dc koop (Post 12810406)
Nobody buys the Presidency with big dollahs.! That's a myth currently being perpetuated by raving uncle Bernie. Tom Steyer has spent around sixty million of his own money (at the very least) and gotten nowhere

Prime example of a necessary but not sufficient condition.

Big money is necessary to become president, but by itself is not sufficient to become president. You just don't get to be president without it.

kimilseung Feb 23rd 2020 4:04 am

Re: 2020 Election
 

Originally Posted by dc koop (Post 12810406)
Nobody buys the Presidency with big dollahs.! That's a myth currently being perpetuated by raving uncle Bernie. Tom Steyer has spent around sixty million of his own money (at the very least) and gotten nowhere

He has gotten a lot further than one would expect. His comparative success, indicates money does buy votes.


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