The Monty Hall problem
#31
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Re: The Monty Hall problem
This is only about probability. You are probably more likely to win if you switch.
It's not really a question of odds. With the two remaining boxes you have a 50/50 chance.
Real Madrid v Gillingham FC both have a 50/50 chance of winning, both play by the same rules.
But the probability of Real winning is greater for all sorts of reasons.
Last edited by stuboy; Sep 15th 2013 at 2:41 pm.
#32
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Re: The Monty Hall problem
If I choose some numbers for the Euromillions draw on Tuesday, then change my mind and choose some different ones, will I win (forget all the stuff about goats, cars or children, I don't want any of those)?
#33
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Re: The Monty Hall problem
Thousands of theorists have tried it. None of them as far as I know have a big yacht in Puerto Banus.
#34
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Re: The Monty Hall problem
Don't worry, I won't blame you if they don't come up.
#35
Re: The Monty Hall problem
If you could somehow change your numbers before the draw, and you have no more lines, then changing keeps your odds exactly the same. Its totally different to the goat/car problem.
BTW you have more chance being run over by a car on your way to the lotto shop, than winning.
Jon
#37
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Re: The Monty Hall problem
Actually I think thats not right. Changing your lottery numbers doubles your infinitesimally low chance of winning... Only because you have a new set or second set of numbers.
If you could somehow change your numbers before the draw, and you have no more lines, then changing keeps your odds exactly the same. Its totally different to the goat/car problem.
BTW you have more chance being run over by a car on your way to the lotto shop, than winning.
Jon
If you could somehow change your numbers before the draw, and you have no more lines, then changing keeps your odds exactly the same. Its totally different to the goat/car problem.
BTW you have more chance being run over by a car on your way to the lotto shop, than winning.
Jon
BTW, Lyn I suggest you buy your ticket on line.
#38
Re: The Monty Hall problem
If she changes the numbers and has a second line, then the probability of winning is doubled.
I stick with my reply using 'probability' as the word... But would like to understand where you think Ive got it wrong. I don't think I have, but happy to be proved wrong
Jon
#39
Re: The Monty Hall problem
Surely probability is the basis of odds.
I don't think you'd give me an even money bet on this match of yours for instance.
"Real Madrid v Gillingham FC both have a 50/50 chance of winning, both play by the same rules.
But the probability of Real winning is greater for all sorts of reasons."
I presume that's because Real have home advantage and having most likely fixed the Spanish ref, I think they could just have a slight edge.
I don't think you'd give me an even money bet on this match of yours for instance.
"Real Madrid v Gillingham FC both have a 50/50 chance of winning, both play by the same rules.
But the probability of Real winning is greater for all sorts of reasons."
I presume that's because Real have home advantage and having most likely fixed the Spanish ref, I think they could just have a slight edge.
#41
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Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,518
Re: The Monty Hall problem
Surely probability is the basis of odds.
I don't think you'd give me an even money bet on this match of yours for instance.
"Real Madrid v Gillingham FC both have a 50/50 chance of winning, both play by the same rules.
But the probability of Real winning is greater for all sorts of reasons."
I presume that's because Real have home advantage and having most likely fixed the Spanish ref, I think they could just have a slight edge.
I don't think you'd give me an even money bet on this match of yours for instance.
"Real Madrid v Gillingham FC both have a 50/50 chance of winning, both play by the same rules.
But the probability of Real winning is greater for all sorts of reasons."
I presume that's because Real have home advantage and having most likely fixed the Spanish ref, I think they could just have a slight edge.
I wouldn't give you even money.
#42
Re: The Monty Hall problem
What I find interesting is how different people need a different explanation until one works.
This one worked for me as posted in post 12
http://britishexpats.com/forum/showp...1&postcount=12
But the more 'verbal' ones in this thread don't work for me personally...
Vive la difference
Jon
This one worked for me as posted in post 12
http://britishexpats.com/forum/showp...1&postcount=12
But the more 'verbal' ones in this thread don't work for me personally...
Vive la difference
Jon
#44
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Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,518
Re: The Monty Hall problem
I agree, highly logical people like Spock need shorter explanation.
#45
Re: The Monty Hall problem
Here's a simple puzzle.
You have three steaks to cook but your pan only holds 2.
It takes 10 minutes to cook a steak.
What is the shortest time it can take to cook all three ?
You have three steaks to cook but your pan only holds 2.
It takes 10 minutes to cook a steak.
What is the shortest time it can take to cook all three ?