The Monty Hall problem
Oct 4th 2013, 8:32 am
#62
Just Joined
Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 18
Re: The Monty Hall problem
A way of making the choice in the OP clearer is to do it with cards. The prize is the Ace of spades. You choose one at random, I keep the 51, and turn 50 over to show the ace isn't one of them. If you keep your original choice, you have a 1 in 52 chance of winning, but if you change, you have a 51 in 52 chance of winning.
Oct 4th 2013, 8:37 am
#63
Just Joined
Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 18
Re: The Monty Hall problem
Re the child choice, you are more likely to have a boy first as there are more boys born than girls.
While the chance still remains roughly 50:50, the more boys you have, the higher the chance becomes.
While the chance still remains roughly 50:50, the more boys you have, the higher the chance becomes.
Oct 4th 2013, 9:41 am
#64
FreeThinker
Joined: Nov 2009
Location: the moors and levels
Posts: 9,702
Re: The Monty Hall problem
A way of making the choice in the OP clearer is to do it with cards. The prize is the Ace of spades. You choose one at random, I keep the 51, and turn 50 over to show the ace isn't one of them. If you keep your original choice, you have a 1 in 52 chance of winning, but if you change, you have a 51 in 52 chance of winning.
