Lynn R

I don't want either a goat or a Cadillac, therefore I don't care what's in which box. Is that lateral thinking or just plain apathy?

Dick Dasterdly

Ha ha, I would be happy with both or even better, 1 Cadillac and 2 Goats.

Not that I'm greedy of course, but I think of all that lovely fresh milk every day and I could always use the Cadillac to take my goats to see the Billy every once in a while, that's presuming of course they are Nannies.

If not, knowing a little about Billy goats, then I'd prefer to forget about the whole thing.

Beaverstate

Just a bit of trolling....but can an Arab lose?

amideislas

I reckon you might argue that goats (and sheep) are all liars anyway?

stuboy

Good explanation.

stuboy

I've just seen another about kids.

If you have a son first then you have a greater chance of the second child being a girl.

Same logic.

Dick Dasterdly

Is it really logic ?
If the above explanations are logical, can someone explain the coin tossing theory whereby if you toss a coin 9 times and it comes down as heads 9 times there's still a 50/50 chance of it coming down heads on the tenth throw.

jimenato

What would you expect Dick? That it would come down heads again or tails?

Dick Dasterdly

50/50 is the common theory which I would go along with, but doesn't seem to match up with the theory re the last 2 doors in the caddy/goat conundrum.
Why ?

jimenato

In the goat/caddy situation, having made your initial choice, you are then given a further piece of information which gives you a huge clue as to the location of the caddy.

The coin conundrum is different. The toss of a fair coin is always 50/50. Some people assume that it it falls 9 times heads that the 10th is more likely to be a tail as 10 tosses should result in 5 heads and 5 tails and the sequence should attempt revert to the norm. This is the Gamblers Fallacy and involves the notion that future random events are influenced by previous iterations.

The two problems are different. I wish I could explain better but I'm not good enough. We need an expert on the laws of probability.

Jon-Bxl

I'm no expert, but for sure the tenth toss is 50/50. Regardless of any history.

However if you say up front 'what the probability of 10 heads' then the probability of that is 2 power of 10 , 1024.

Jon

Dick Dasterdly

Right, I'm trying it from a different perspective.
The punter started off with a one in three chance of success.
If I assume that the original one in three chance still applied after a goat has been revealed, then maybe that would explain the theory, or am I barking up the wrong tree. ?

stuboy

You're on the right track.

You had a I in 3 chance of winning the car when you chose your box
The other boxes carry the same odds.

The host reveals a goat.

You are offered a swap

You know now that that the car is in one of the other two boxes, either the one you chose or the remaining box. So your chances of winning have increased.

The odds on your box containing a goat are 2 to 1 because there are twice as many goats as there are cars.

So your box is still twice as likely to have a goat than a car even after the box revealing the goat has been opened. Just because you now know where a goat is does not change the original odds, it's the same game.

Therefore if your box (one of the remaining two) is still twice as likely to have a goat then switching is the sensible option.

Does this help? It is quite difficult to explain.

Jon-Bxl

What I find interesting is how different people need a different explanation until one works.

This one worked for me as posted in post 12
http://britishexpats.com/forum/showp...1&postcount=12

But the more 'verbal' ones in this thread don't work for me personally...

Vive la difference

Jon

Dick Dasterdly

So I presume switching has worked out at a 66% success rate in practice after a million zillion or so attempts, all things other things being equal and the law of averages applied ?