That's the gist in a way.

This is only about probability. You are probably more likely to win if you switch.

It's not really a question of odds. With the two remaining boxes you have a 50/50 chance.

Real Madrid v Gillingham FC both have a 50/50 chance of winning, both play by the same rules.

But the probability of Real winning is greater for all sorts of reasons.

If I choose some numbers for the Euromillions draw on Tuesday, then change my mind and choose some different ones, will I win (forget all the stuff about goats, cars or children, I don't want any of those)?

Yes, sort of. I'm not saying you will win but you can improve the probability of winning by selecting those numbers that appear most frequently.

Thousands of theorists have tried it. None of them as far as I know have a big yacht in Puerto Banus.

I don't want one of those either! Now to study the numbers that appear most frequently ...

Don't worry, I won't blame you if they don't come up.

Actually I think thats not right. Changing your lottery numbers doubles your infinitesimally low chance of winning... Only because you have a new set or second set of numbers.

If you could somehow change your numbers before the draw, and you have no more lines, then changing keeps your odds exactly the same. Its totally different to the goat/car problem.

BTW you have more chance being run over by a car on your way to the lotto shop, than winning.

Jon

Now that I do believe, implicitly. It would in fact be just my luck to be run over by a car on the way back from the lotto shop after buying the winning jackpot ticket.

It's not about odds. It's about probability. They are different things.

BTW, Lyn I suggest you buy your ticket on line.

OK so please explain how the 'probability' of winning is increased if Lynn, can somehow change her numbers before the draw. I.e you have one line and you can somehow CHANGE the numbers leaving her with one line of new numbers. Which was the question I believe.

If she changes the numbers and has a second line, then the probability of winning is doubled.

I stick with my reply using 'probability' as the word... But would like to understand where you think Ive got it wrong. I don't think I have, but happy to be proved wrong

Jon

Surely probability is the basis of odds.
I don't think you'd give me an even money bet on this match of yours for instance.

"Real Madrid v Gillingham FC both have a 50/50 chance of winning, both play by the same rules.
But the probability of Real winning is greater for all sorts of reasons."

I presume that's because Real have home advantage and having most likely fixed the Spanish ref, I think they could just have a slight edge.

I can't see why. Any explanation?

:lol

I wouldn't give you even money.

Yes - I find that strange. The more detail one goes into, the more obscure the explanation becomes. It probably says something about the way people think - that different explanation styles suit different minds.

Me neither

I have a theory in my head but it's a bit scrambled at the moment.

I'll get back when I've organised my thoughts

I agree, highly logical people like Spock need shorter explanation.

Here's a simple puzzle.

You have three steaks to cook but your pan only holds 2.
It takes 10 minutes to cook a steak.
What is the shortest time it can take to cook all three ?