Re: How is business?
 

WTH :rofl:

i've turned over a new leaf :p

Re: How is business?
 

I am very skeptical of the Iran effect. They have been pumping and selling oil all the time. Firstly to the Europeans, then it switched to the Chinese.

I do wonder what the net gain will be when they are "allowed" to pump to overall supply. I agree that once they improve efficiency overall supply will increase, but this will take some time. Oil is falling with supply coming offline to some extent. The issue is demand side and the Americans who have amazingly been able to keep lowering the cost of their fracked oil.

Oil price forecasts are a complete guess, as pricing can swing hugely on amounts in storage and not necessary underlying demand.

Low oil prices are a shame - it really diverts interest away from renewables.

Re: How is business?
 

I am no expert by any means, but i work in the oil, gas and refined products trading arena and I can tell you that many traders are gearing up specifically for an increase in Iran's output and its ability to sell globally again.

There is also the matter on $bn's of Irans sanctioned money being released which would allow them to invest significantly when many of the O&G infrastructure companies are prepared to accept work at very low prices.

Nobody seems very sure whether this pushes the price up or down but most agree it will increase volatility which is what the traders covet most.

Re: How is business?
 

Sachs have said they COULD see $20 a barrel soon enough.

Iran has so much cash it's unreal.

Re: How is business?
 

How does Iran have so much money? They have been an economical pariah for a long long time

Re: How is business?
 

I might have said earlier or on another thread, but the example given to me by someone in the company that partners with Audi is that their garage in Iran cannot even contemplate keeping up with demand for new cars.

They had cash, their cash got frozen, they're getting it back.

Re: How is business?
 

Yes that was an example used before. We are moving into interesting times in the ME. So we are all moving to Tehran then?

Re: How is business?
 

No thanks...

Re: How is business?
 

If the Shah hadn't *****ed up and the revolution never happened, Iran would probably be the big player in the region. They have both oil and a capacity for business that's much more logical and pragmatic than Saudi, and a more educated workforce.

Re: How is business?
 

on that we agree!

Re: How is business?
 

While on topic :
http://www.addictinginfo.org/2015/12/16/jf-congress-just-sold-the-entire-united-states-to-the-fracking-industry/

Re: How is business?
 

For years the oil was still sold (and paid for). Those imposing the sanctions needed and bought the oil. The money was simply put into escrow and they were not allowed access to it.

Iran will have a full on Britney Spears turning 18 moment and getting access to its trust fund.

The Great Dubai Crash of 2016.....
 

Pretty much everyone I am talking to is saying the same, business is down the toilet, people aren't getting paid, the gov are really slow (6 months+) in paying their suppliers.

So, is 2016 going to be the new 2008?

Re: How is business?
 

We, speaking as a company have thankfully some ongoing big projects which have a few years left in them. Also, these happen to be projects that are very much in the public eye and so couldn't really be moth balled without getting major attention.

We have also just announced our best year as a company, however, even though they keep telling us there are 250+ positions open in the region they have let a smallish number of folk go, arguing it away that their positions will now be covered by low cost delivery centers (India etc).

In terms of new projects coming in..... its all gone a bit quiet on the major projects front. From Al Sharq in Doha to Oman Rail, Etihad Rail and other large civils jobs. Maritime seems to be doing OK but the powers that be are definitely cherry picking the projects that they're releasing. We're a large International Consultancy and need large projects to keep on an even keel.

I think you're all correct and that 2016 will be an interesting year. Hopefully I'll manage to keep my head down similar to how I did in 2008/09. Thankfully my main project has another 3-4 years to run so fingers crossed I'll be fine.

Re: How is business?
 

fact : the police station next door is receiving a daily average of about 50 bounced cheques' complaints
its not just the ones who made a plan to run who are disappearing now, its the poor sods who just couldnt make the rent / credit card payment / school fees etc
the whites of the eyes are starting to show juuuuuuuuuust a bit